ATL: DANNY - Models

[TheProfessor]

wxman, you are always here to rain on the parade, lol.....

(kidding of course,we love ya)

You get pretty used to him in the Texas thread during the winter.

[blp]

Question, what impact does the small size of this system have on the models being able handle it's strength and future track. I know years ago small systems like this where hard to handle by the models intensity and trackwise. They almost always depicted a shallower system or did not even show it well.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS should be starting shortly...Will be very interesting to see what it and the Euro show today.

[Kohlecane]

May i have a link too the models GFS Euro etc.. the one i did have is not working on my computer ATM. Thanks

[Dean4Storms]

Not to disagree with you but that's a week away, isn't safe to say a lot can change before then?

Danny does, at least, look like a TS today. I was looking at the wind shear in its path a week from today, in case it had any ideas of coming toward the Gulf or East U.S. Coast. There should be a giant upper-level low in the Gulf and a wall of shear that would destroy anything moving toward it. The map below is valid next Thursday, about the time Danny would be near the Bahamas or Cuba. I think the models have it right - dissipation after it passes the NE Caribbean.

That's a deep trough, don't know that I would bite on that yet.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like NHC is a tad on the southern side of most of the guidance coming into the Islands with the exception of the ECM most are further North. It wouldn't take much of a more than expected WNW path or NW from out where it is to miss the bigger Islands down the road once extrapolated.

[ronjon]

Models coming into pretty good consensus that whatever's left of Danny will be near S FL-Bahamas in about week from now. Drought buster for S FL?

[rockyman]

12z GFS is running. Follow it here:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=199

[beoumont]

Some things never change with Rock and the Euro ;0

Joking aside. I believe the box to look for is 20 and 65, if it comes in South it would be a threat to the US. Further North is usually a miss. Forget the name of that box. Didn't someone at The Weather Channel come up with that? Someone can correct me if wrong.

That is the Hebert Box and he worked at the NWS and NHC.

Paul Hebert (pronounce AY-bear with a French accent). I, and many others, consider him the most knowledged hurricane expert ever to work at the NHC. Many a time, the hurricane forecaster on duty, or director would turn to him for advise.

In the picture below shot as Hurricane Andrew was approaching Miami, Hebert is on the left, then Bob Sheets, Max Mayfield, and Gil Clark. They were deciding exactly which areas of coastline to issue warnings for.

[Kohlecane]

12z GFS is running. Follow it here:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=199

Yeah for some reason its not loading on my computer any other sites for modeling

[SouthFLTropics]

By 69 hours it seems that the GFS is showing a weakening trend with Danny. That is prior to any land interaction.

SFT

[rockyman]

12z GFS is running. Follow it here:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=199

Yeah for some reason its not loading on my computer any other sites for modeling

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... b&hour=072

[N2FSU]

12z GFS is running. Follow it here:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=199

Yeah for some reason its not loading on my computer any other sites for modeling

http://www.instantweathermaps.com

[OuterBanker]

I think king Euro has had a death match with DR/Haiti since it was first initialized.

[SouthFLTropics]

Not much left by 87 hours...

[Bocadude85]

Was the 12z GFS initialized with Danny as a hurricane?

[NCSTORMMAN]

Was the 12z GFS initialized with Danny as a hurricane?

Nope and I still think the track will be wrong.

[stormlover2013]

Ridge looks strong strong, strenght won't matter with where it goes, ridge is strong

[gatorcane]

It will be interesting to see how the global models handle such a tiny hurricane like this. They should be able to but it will put them to the test.

[Yellow Evan]

It will be interesting to see how the global models handle such a tiny hurricane like this. They should be able to but it will put them to the test.

Global models sometimes underestimate small hurricanes like this. Look at Hilda a few weeks ago for proof.