ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#561 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:51 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
NCSTORMMAN wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:ECMWF any minute now...


What do you think it will show? Predictions?


Put me down for $10.00...Similar to 00z with a nudge to the west.

SFT


No idea. I'm interested if it is similar to the 00z run, or renders that strange run as a fluke.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#562 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:52 pm

Same here. Euro Model seems to have one funky run for each storm. Is last night's run a fluke? We are about to find out.
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Re:

#563 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:54 pm

deltadog03 wrote:More than likely there will not be much strengthening with Erika (if at all) until it reaches near the Bahamas.



That seems to be a recurring theme with all of the model suites as well as the NHC forecast.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#564 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:56 pm

NC its going to keep changing, first the storm looks very very weak won't get good initialization,also it depends on the trough...will the trough pick it up, if the trough doesn't pick it up its going straight into the gom, and the models will pick up on that really good in about 3 days
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#565 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:57 pm

well it initialized well at 0hr.... :D slightly more west and closer to FL is my bet.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=000
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#566 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:58 pm

HWRF with cat 2 in the Bahamas
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ATL: ERIKA - Models

#567 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:59 pm

Sorry to bug you guys but can somebody give details on the latest Gfdl?
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#568 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:59 pm

I'm seeing so many possibilities here. I wouldn't discount any of them at this time...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#569 Postby Siker » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:59 pm

Because the HWRF was weaker, it shifted 400 miles west. End of the run, rapidly intensifying heading NW:

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#570 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:00 pm

all about the trough babyy!!!!! will it pick it up or will it not lol
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#571 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:01 pm

EC MUCH weaker through 24 hours
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#572 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:02 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:all about the trough babyy!!!!! will it pick it up or will it not lol


I'm very skeptical of a deep trough in late August. If this were in 4 weeks I'd be more comfortable. It's not going to be all about the trough...It's going to be all about how strong that ridge really is.

SFT
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#573 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:03 pm

EC very nearly has an open wave in 33 hours
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#574 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:03 pm

Siker wrote:Because the HWRF was weaker, it shifted 400 miles west. End of the run, rapidly intensifying heading NW:

Image


Heading WNW
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#575 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:04 pm

Not something we like to see there is it calmbeforestorm

SFT
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#576 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:05 pm

Instant Weather Maps used to update the EURO before most sites with good resolution. Not any more it seems :uarrow:
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#577 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:08 pm

very weak low over the Leewards in 45 hours
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#578 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:08 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Not something we like to see there is it calmbeforestorm

SFT

Nope
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Re:

#579 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:09 pm

Alyono wrote:very weak low over the Leewards in 45 hours


Very similar to Danny. Euro and GFS showed no intensification and none happened. Let us see more of the run.
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#580 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:09 pm

not really a TC at 51 hours. It is following the MU so far
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