ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

Is it me or is it starting to pick up some more speed in the last frames. Also looks like the eye like feature.

[]http://i57.tinypic.com/b3o395.gif[/img]

well its moving W to wsw .. but dont be fooled by the quickly expanding convection to the west.

Aric, agreed. However, I think that one low probability situation that could conceivably throw a monkey wrench into this (related to other posts showing higher level mean steering being faster and more to the SW) would be rapid strengthening very soon raising the mean steering level a lot, something zero model runs have shown.
Opinion?

Yea Larry that is what I am worried about. Also, the 18z models initialized higher. The GFS 1002mb, GFDL 995, HWRF 992. If you run those models once they started to deepen then dove SW. The question is will this happen sooner rather than in 48hrs.

[fci]

It's been quite muggy for late September here too today, although the front being almost right over me has resulted in oscillating humidity today.

Yes, the humidity would probably be more pre-frontal than related to the Tropical Storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Is it me or is it starting to pick up some more speed in the last frames. Also looks like the eye like feature.

well its moving W to wsw .. but dont be fooled by the quickly expanding convection to the west.

Aric, agreed. However, I think that one low probability situation that could conceivably throw a monkey wrench into this (related to other posts showing higher level mean steering being faster and more to the SW) would be rapid strengthening very soon raising the mean steering level a lot, something zero model runs have shown.
Opinion?

Yeah the Euro is of course showing more of wsw motion then the rest of models and deeepens it quicker. we will see in the next 24 hours.

[northjaxpro]

I have to lean on EURO for right now with Joaquin as it was the only model to show rapid intensification potential with over the past 24-36 hours. Gotta give it to EURO for nailing that with Joaquin.

[tatertawt24]

The band it started forming around 22 UTC was impressive!

[Kingarabian]

Transitioned nicely into a curved band. Looks like it's ready to take off. Just need shear to relax a bit more.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

with this motion though. hurricane warnings should be going up at 11 for nearly all the central and northern bahamas. especially given the shift in the models.

[boca]

Are the odds increasing for Florida to be concerned about this storm?

[northjaxpro]

with this motion though. hurricane warnings should be going up at 11 for nearly all the central and northern bahamas. especially given the shift in the models.

I agree Aric. NHC has to post them given the latest trends with Joaquin imo.

[Aric Dunn]

Are the odds increasing for Florida to be concerned about this storm?

from everything I can tell. about the only florida (at the moment) has to worry about its surf and out rain bands.

[tropicwatch]

Current wind shear.

[Hammy]

Current wind shear.

20kt line is further south, indicating the shear is not backing off quite yet and may still be getting stronger at least in the short term.

[gatorcane]

From what I can see on the sat loops, this thing is screaming intensification. I wonder if we can get RI as it approaches the Bahamas in the next couple of days. Could it pump up the ridge if it gets very strong?

[Aric Dunn]

Current wind shear.

20kt line is further south, indicating the shear is not backing off quite yet and may still be getting stronger at least in the short term.

those maps are extremely relative .. all the gulf stream data ( also read the discussion) shows decreasing shear and is clearly noticeable in the structure.

[wxman57]

Are the odds increasing for Florida to be concerned about this storm?

I still see nothing to indicate a Florida threat. Jet core is running SW-NE across Florida this week. Hard for a storm to move against the flow.

[Aric Dunn]

From what I can see on the sat loops, this thing is screaming intensification. I wonder if we can get RI as it approaches the Bahamas in the next couple of days. Could it pump up the ridge if it gets very strong?

we shall see. from all the models that show intensification have it situated in a highly divergent setup... if that pans out we will have to wait and see.

[HurrMark]

Current wind shear.

Surprised to see this. Given its current state, it looks like it has really slackened off in the last few hours. Either looks are really deceiving or the map is wrong...

[tropicwatch]

A look at the big picture. Very impressive system.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[AutoPenalti]

Are the odds increasing for Florida to be concerned about this storm?

Very low to non-existent right now, but anything can change.

[northjaxpro]

From what I can see on the sat loops, this thing is screaming intensification. I wonder if we can get RI as it approaches the Bahamas in the next couple of days. Could it pump up the ridge if it gets very strong?

we shall see. from all the models that show intensification have it situated in a highly divergent setup... if that pans out we will have to wait and see.

Yeah, that is the wild card in this whole scenario. It makes you wonder though just a bit. If that ridge strengthens a bit more than what was initially forecasted, that possibilty could present a whole different scenario. But, I don't want to speculate on that for now. The main concern in the immediate short term is the Central and Northwest Bahamas.