Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

I'm sorry if I offend anyone but come on now we are talking about a model runs concerning a system that hasn't even formed. How many times did we have these
types of runs last season and nothing happened? Does anyone remember the runs we had last year that storms nailing New Orleans and Miami?

what else do you want us to talk about?

[Stormcenter]

Yeah I guess you're right.

I'm sorry if I offend anyone but come on now we are talking about a model runs concerning a system that hasn't even formed. How many times did we have these
types of runs last season and nothing happened? Does anyone remember the runs we had last year that storms nailing New Orleans and Miami?

what else do you want us to talk about?

[Sanibel]

I think someone should mention that if TD#2 gets any stronger we have to start looking at a model screw-up here.

[blp]

This CMC looks more like the good old days before the upgrade. 3 systems.... The gulf system seems to come from wave east of the carribean.

00Z

[blp]

This has to be one of lower pressures I can remember seeing on a GFS run. You have dark blues on this.


00Z

[PTrackerLA]

This CMC looks more like the good old days before the upgrade. 3 systems.... The gulf system seems to come from wave east of the carribean.

00Z

Better be back to crazy uncle, that GOM system .

[Jagno]

This CMC looks more like the good old days before the upgrade. 3 systems.... The gulf system seems to come from wave east of the carribean.

00Z

6 days out.....................I pray this CMC model is just on some good drugs............otherwise I'll need some as it shows it coming onshore right over my house AGAIN. I don't understand the colors vs intensity? Anyone care to give me a quick color code for dummies clue.

[jinftl]

There has never been a season where model runs 16 days out have agreed on what turned out to be a verified track and storm intensity. What folks need to remember is that every model, every forecast track, etc. has a margin of error (a "cone", if you will) that grows in size as you move out in time. A storm forecast 16 days out to hit Miami probably has a margin of error of 1500+ miles and a margin of error of up tp 5+ categories (the + accounts for wave/td/ts....plus the 5 S-S cats).

Model runs beyond a week are being misused if they are used for much more than: 1) establishing consistency between models and between model runs, and 2) establishing trends in track/strength. What we call 'flip-flopping' between runs so far out is probably well within margin of error. And as Derek pointed out, even the cone is a projection...storms have a 33% chance of not being in the cone at 5 days out.

This season is no different than any other when it comes to interpreting model runs and understanding the information they can (and can't) give so far out in time. How quickly folks forget, but South Florida was in the model 'cone' for Ike just 96 hours out. As a general rule, model tracks take on much more specific meaning if we are under 7 days....but even then there is a margin of error of several hundred miles.

Trend and consistency.....those are the keys to understanding models so far out in time.

yes, 16 days is pure fantasyland

Quoted for the truth.

The one's that define seasons are ones that the models dont see till the writing is on the wall

[blp]

This CMC looks more like the good old days before the upgrade. 3 systems.... The gulf system seems to come from wave east of the carribean.

00Z

6 days out.....................I pray this CMC model is just on some good drugs............otherwise I'll need some as it shows it coming onshore right over my house AGAIN. I don't understand the colors vs intensity? Anyone care to give me a quick color code for dummies clue.

The image has a color scale on the bottam that gives you the millibar readings. The lower the number the stronger the storms intensity.

[Jagno]

This CMC looks more like the good old days before the upgrade. 3 systems.... The gulf system seems to come from wave east of the carribean.

00Z

6 days out.....................I pray this CMC model is just on some good drugs............otherwise I'll need some as it shows it coming onshore right over my house AGAIN. I don't understand the colors vs intensity? Anyone care to give me a quick color code for dummies clue.

The image has a color scale on the bottam that gives you the millibar readings. The lower the number the stronger the storms intensity.

Thanks blp. At least it's comforting that according to the CMC so far this would come in no stronger than a tropical storm or possibly a very low end Cat1 at worst. I know that other models are finally picking up on this which is why I am taking notice. I hope that graphic from the GFS is overintensifying this storm but either way, I'll be ready. According to these last few models it is within the week. Once it's in the gulf all bets are off so I like to try and stay just a step ahead of the masses. You folks are the greatest around here. Thanks again for the help.

[Jagno]

There has never been a season where model runs 16 days out have agreed on what turned out to be a verified track and storm intensity. What folks need to remember is that every model, every forecast track, etc. has a margin of error (a "cone", if you will) that grows in size as you move out in time. A storm forecast 16 days out to hit Miami probably has a margin of error of 1500+ miles and a margin of error of up tp 5+ categories (the + accounts for wave/td/ts....plus the 5 S-S cats).

Model runs beyond a week are being misused if they are used for much more than: 1) establishing consistency between models and between model runs, and 2) establishing trends in track/strength. What we call 'flip-flopping' between runs so far out is probably well within margin of error. And as Derek pointed out, even the cone is a projection...storms have a 33% chance of not being in the cone at 5 days out.

This season is no different than any other when it comes to interpreting model runs and understanding the information they can (and can't) give so far out in time. How quickly folks forget, but South Florida was in the model 'cone' for Ike just 96 hours out. As a general rule, model tracks take on much more specific meaning if we are under 7 days....but even then there is a margin of error of several hundred miles.

Trend and consistency.....those are the keys to understanding models so far out in time.

yes, 16 days is pure fantasyland

Quoted for the truth.

The one's that define seasons are ones that the models dont see till the writing is on the wall

Am I reading the graphic wrong on the CMC? It's 6 days out, not 16 unless you are refering to another system that I'm unaware of. Please correct me if I read it wrong. I know that there is a margin of error. Anyone living on the coast are all too well aware of that "margin" and have all at one time been bitten by the "error" by either staying when they should have left or left and felt they should have stayed. It's like playing roulette.

[Scorpion]

240 Euro looks to be aiming at FL

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO is about to say hello FLA

[Ivanhater]

Much further south this run..

[Wx_Warrior]

night guys....not convinced on location but agree we shall see a decent system soon.

[Jagno]

Much further south this run..

I noticed the southward difference from the earlier run. Wouldn't that take it more on a westerly course or would this really make Florida more of a target. Sorry, I have interests in both states so I'm trying to stay on top of this one.

[paintplaye]

This CMC looks more like the good old days before the upgrade. 3 systems.... The gulf system seems to come from wave east of the carribean.

00Z

6 days out.....................I pray this CMC model is just on some good drugs............otherwise I'll need some as it shows it coming onshore right over my house AGAIN. I don't understand the colors vs intensity? Anyone care to give me a quick color code for dummies clue.

The image has a color scale on the bottam that gives you the millibar readings. The lower the number the stronger the storms intensity.

Thanks blp. At least it's comforting that according to the CMC so far this would come in no stronger than a tropical storm or possibly a very low end Cat1 at worst. I know that other models are finally picking up on this which is why I am taking notice. I hope that graphic from the GFS is overintensifying this storm but either way, I'll be ready. According to these last few models it is within the week. Once it's in the gulf all bets are off so I like to try and stay just a step ahead of the masses. You folks are the greatest around here. Thanks again for the help.[/quote]

Don't rely on models too much for intensity. Especially for storms that haven't even formed yet. Luckily though, if a storm does form, it does not have much time to get it's act together. Unfortunately the gulf is hot.

[Ivanhater]

Much further south this run..

I noticed the southward difference from the earlier run. Wouldn't that take it more on a westerly course or would this really make Florida more of a target. Sorry, I have interests in both states so I'm trying to stay on top of this one.

The most important difference is the GFS and Euro were overdoing the trough yesterday. This is still way to far out to tell if and how strong a trough will play down the road...however, this looks to be a bad storm for the Islands in the near term

[cheezyWXguy]

6 days out.....................I pray this CMC model is just on some good drugs............otherwise I'll need some as it shows it coming onshore right over my house AGAIN. I don't understand the colors vs intensity? Anyone care to give me a quick color code for dummies clue.

The image has a color scale on the bottam that gives you the millibar readings. The lower the number the stronger the storms intensity.

Thanks blp. At least it's comforting that according to the CMC so far this would come in no stronger than a tropical storm or possibly a very low end Cat1 at worst. I know that other models are finally picking up on this which is why I am taking notice. I hope that graphic from the GFS is overintensifying this storm but either way, I'll be ready. According to these last few models it is within the week. Once it's in the gulf all bets are off so I like to try and stay just a step ahead of the masses. You folks are the greatest around here. Thanks again for the help.

Don't rely on models too much for intensity. Especially for storms that haven't even formed yet. Luckily though, if a storm does form, it does not have much time to get it's act together. Unfortunately the gulf is hot.[/quote]
well that picture of the cmc is 4 days earlier than the picture of the euro, meaning that the big storm behind td2 is still in the catl, while td2 is near the greater antillies at the 6 day timeframe. And if the cmc is right about the gulf storm, thats a pretty strong storm there. All 3 systems bear a lot of watching in the coming days because models are showing all 3 systems with a potential to affect land.

[cycloneye]

Posting this here as the long range GFS shows another strong system after the one emerging Africa now that threats Florida,but remember,is fantasyland here.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml