Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

Just making an observation and asking a question here. I'm not comparing to the 2005 season or Katrina. Anyway did any of the models forsee her development in 2005? I honestly don't recall that any did. Jus

Katrina was sort of difficult as I recall... it was first TD10 which dissolved then turned into TD12 which finally took off.

for sure the GFS never saw Felix or Dean in the carib years ago.

[Bocadude85]

latest GFS delayed development again now from Aug 30 to Sep 2...

The 12z GFS has a system developing in just 4 days....

Show us

N/T

[Hurricaneman]

[/quote]Here you go

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=096&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_096_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=[/quote]


This map is from 2 days ago, nothing of the sort happens on the current map


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

Ok this is long range but I do see two models in general agreement development around the islands and possibly the CMC though it is faster with development.

312 GFS 12z


312 FIM 12z


240 CMC 12z

[Bocadude85]

Here you go

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=096&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_096_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=[/quote]


This map is from 2 days ago, nothing of the sort happens on the current map


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products[/quote]


Your right just realized that. I wonder why I can get the site to update...

[Hammy]

GFS 18z is out, and it seems to be generally consistent with at least developing something around the end of the month.

Just for fun: it has three systems including a hurricane by the end of the run.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS 18z is out, and it seems to be generally consistent with at least developing something around the end of the month.

Just for fun: it has three systems including a hurricane by the end of the run.

It actually has 4 if you count the one at 26N 52W at 384hrs and its for entertainment purposes only due to being 384hrs

[blp]

18z 312hr still has the same area over the islands as in 12z run. Looks to originate from the ITCZ, can't trace it to a pouch. Ends up in Bahamas at the end.

[cycloneye]

Four at end of run.

[Hurricaneman]

18z 312hr still has the same area over the islands as in 12z run. Looks to originate from the ITCZ, can't trace it to a pouch. Ends up in Bahamas at the end.

http://imageshack.us/a/img59/1148/08xt.jpg

It technically comes from the wave currently over Niger and should emerge in a few days

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 18z GFS shows what we should expect for September.

00z run will drop every single system.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18z GFS shows what we should expect for September.

00z run will drop every single system.

actually thats 2 runs in a row that the GFS made a storm or hurricane out of the wave over Niger

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

Four at end of run.

something is horribly wrong with Cohen's maps

Note the 989mb low over the Great Lakes! I doubt it really gets that low

[Fego]

Deleted by me.

[Hurricaneman]

Four at end of run.

something is horribly wrong with Cohen's maps

Note the 989mb low over the Great Lakes! I doubt it really gets that low

Probably a phantom storm that the GFS likes to print out

[meriland23]

Look at the stark differences in models for hours 384 gfs for 06z, 12z, and 18z

06z



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12z



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18z



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Interesting..

[hurricanekid416]

A lot of the models have been bad with tc genesis this year

[Fego]

So much for a model recently upgraded .

Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk 2

[RL3AO]

Not sure why you are expecting consistency at 384 hours. Although, the fact that most GFS runs are developing storms now, instead of showing nothing is the only thing to take away.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS is doing this because of a favorable MJO after 10 days is my hunch and may show these systems stronger in later runs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products