Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

What GFS may be picking up is the favorable MJO pulse that will invade the Caribbean in the next few days.

[punkyg]

Question, has a second storm besides the one in the carribean shown up in several model runs?

cause i'm curious to see, if we might have possibly two storms to track.

[jinftl]

Granted, it takes more than warm water to create a tropical system, but the water is just about warm enough to support any system that would develop in the western caribbean...most areas in the 78-82 deg range and only going up as we head into May

[gatorcane]

In this animation of the 18Z GFS out through 168 hours you can finally see the system developing just north of Panama and heading north. We are now within the 168 hour window and the GFS is not pushing out the timeframe any longer.

As each run comes in, I'm starting to buy into its thinking a little bit more. If we see it under 144 hours chances rise considerably that our first invest of this season could be underway.

The 18Z GFS moves it nearly the opposite way than the previous runs today, now moving it north then West into Central America. Obviously the exact path beyond 168 hours is difficult if not nearly impossible to figure out.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Note to see animation:

Click link and then scroll over to the far right-hand side of the image and click "FWD" to animate. Give it some time to load the images to animate.

[cycloneye]

It suddenly became quiet around here and I know why is that. GFS continues alone and is less bullish on SW Caribbean development than in the past days when we saw less than 1000 mb runs.

However,still GFS is showing something in the SW Caribbean that looks like broad low pressure.

[gatorcane]

Cycloneye what model run of the GFS are you looking at? The latest 06Z run shows it still and quite consolidated at 228 hours. It becomes broader and more diffused later in this run but does look to send alot of rain and moisture up into Southern Florida where it is desperately needed



Later in the run moving NNE as it feels the short-wave passing through the CONUS.



Looking at the latest SAT image, shows a broad area of convection starting to get going south of Panama in the EPAC. This area should gradually creep northward into the SW Caribbean over the next several days and by the end of this weekend we should expect a large, broken area of some deep convection over the entire SW Caribbean, if the GFS is correct:

[cycloneye]

Well,I edited the title of the thread to take out the (Very Early SW Caribbean Development?) words because literally,GFS kills it in the 12z run.See loop Below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[N2Storms]

Well, season's over...see y'all next year

[punkyg]

Well,I edited the title of the thread to take out the (Very Early SW Caribbean Development?) words because literally,GFS kills it in the 12z run.See loop Below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Just, because this has the storm form then move into cetral america doesn't mean it would follow that track if it develops.

Lets wait til the next run to see, if it does that type of track and even if it did I wouldn't believe it, because the storm has not formed yet.

also I would like to see how strong the shear is for the carribean, but I can't seem to find it in my favorites can you pull a shear map up for me?

[gatorcane]

I agree I don't think this thread should have been edited just yet. We saw about 10 runs with the system and 1 run that has something but not as organized. Let's see a few more runs first. ECMWF is coming out soon, lets see if it sees this system.

I started a new thread to track the SW Caribbean specifically now that Convection is on the increase in the EPAC South of Panama (that convection will move North)

[cycloneye]

Let me inject some humor after this GFS flop

GFS=Ghost Forecast System.



But seriously,lets see what GFS has in the next runs to see if it totally abandoned the SW Caribbean thing or it changes to a EPAC development and more important,if other models join the GFS wherever which basin they show something.

If at the end,nothing happens this time around,this thread will be the source of the information all year long about all the models on the long-medium range status.In other words,if you want to know about what the models are showing,this is the place to be.

[punkyg]

When does the next model runs come out?

[cycloneye]

When does the next model runs come out?

Times when runs start to come out.

18z=5:30 PM
00z=11:30 PM
06z=5:30 AM
12z=11:30 AM

[boca]

When does the next model runs come out?

Times when runs start to come out.

18z=5:30 PM
00z=11:30 PM
06z=2:00 AM
12z=11:30 AM

I believe the 06z run is at 5:30am unless the changed it to 2am.

[cycloneye]

When does the next model runs come out?

Times when runs start to come out.

18z=5:30 PM
00z=11:30 PM
06z=2:00 AM
12z=11:30 AM

I believe the 06z run is at 5:30am unless the changed it to 2am.

Yes thats correct.

[ROCK]

what you guys are missing is the fact that the shear in the carib in aweful for anything tropical to develope.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... m=&time=-1


aint nothing going to develope with this type of upper level winds.....The GFS is notorious for early season TCs formation. Its only the 1st of May...... Give it 6 more weeks.....

[crownweather]

10 Day European model shows a low pressure system in the deep southwest Caribbean near 10 North. Thought that was kind of interesting since this is the first the Euro is showing this scenario. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9050112!!/

[AJC3]

10 Day European model shows a low pressure system in the deep southwest Caribbean near 10 North. Thought that was kind of interesting since this is the first the Euro is showing this scenario. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9050112!!/

If you look at the high-res ECM it actually shows a very weak (1009-1012MB) low there for 10 days. It's nothing more than the semi-permanent low pressure area that takes up residence in the general area of Panama-Colombia and the deep SW Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

The ghost is baaaaack!





Of course,I dont believe a bit this.From 144 hours down is the best timeframe to look at the models.

An exception was in 2007 when GFS made the forecast of Dean two weeks out.

[gatorcane]

Unless the ECMWF and UKM are on board, its likely nothing more than a phantom storm. The UKM especially is conservative in tropical cyclone genesis. If it shows a system, chances are its going to happen.