WPAC: MEKKHALA - Post-Tropical

[ejeraldmc]

Looks like it's wrapping up.

[euro6208]

Latest warning lower peak intensity and starting to show a recurve.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 59 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN ALMOST
COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 140415Z
ASMU-B IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
CONSOLIDATED, HOWEVER VISIBLE, LLCC ORGANIZATION AND AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 01W IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 01W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SMALL BREAK IN THE STR AS A MIGRATORY TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE EAST CHINE SEA. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD AND EXTEND WESTWARD CONTINUING TO FORCE TD 01W PREDOMINANTLY
WEST THROUGH TAU 72. THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT WILL KEEP THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY LIMIT OVERALL INTENSIFICATION.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 01W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY, RE-CURVING SLIGHTLY INTO A BREAK IN THE STR. AS THE
SYSTEM SKIRTS THE COAST OF CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
DECAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN VWS CAUSED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE.
THE NCEP AND UKMO MODEL DEPICT THE SYSTEM TAKING A MUCH TIGHTER RE-
CURVE INTO THE STR WHILE NAVGEM, JAPANESE AND EMCWF MODELS HAVE A
LESS AGGRESSIVE RE-CURVE DUE TO THE PRESENT OF THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE. DUE TO FORECAST OVERALL WEAK STATE OF THIS SYSTEM, THE SLOWER
RE-CURVE SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY. DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TS 1501 (MEKKHALA)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 14 January 2015

<Analyses at 14/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°25'(10.4°)
E138°05'(138.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 14/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°)
E135°50'(135.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 15/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°40'(11.7°)
E133°50'(133.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 16/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°55'(11.9°)
E131°25'(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 17/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°35'(12.6°)
E128°05'(128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140902
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W MEKKHALA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP012015
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
700 PM CHST WED JAN 14 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W MEKKHALA PASSING NORTH OF YAP AND WILL BE
MOVING AWAY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 137.8E
ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 190 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS ISLAND
ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
01W...MEKKHALA...WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
137.8 EAST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE CENTER OF 01W WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST TO YAP THIS EVENING
AND WILL MOVE AWAY FROM YAP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND 01W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY 01W ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SURF IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED
COASTS AND REEFS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM CHST.

$$
WROE

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I wonder why JTWC is calling it TD when it actually is a TS

[euro6208]

Don't worry they will upgrade this to our first TS...

I wonder why JTWC is calling it TD when it actually is a TS

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Do you realize that there is an exposed LLCC, spiral? Therefore it is impossible that there would be an eye feature. That is only sheared yet very cold convection.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Don't worry they will upgrade this to our first TS...

I wonder why JTWC is calling it TD when it actually is a TS

It is one.

The JMA upgraded 2 hours ago.

[cycloneye]

JMA is the officlal agency in that basin.

[euro6208]

What eye feature? lol...Can't load that website you gave me...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

EYE-FEATURE?

No offense, but that is such a delusional statement.

[euro6208]

Eye feature.

http://philweathersystem.weebly.com/wat ... llite.html


euro you know eye features aint visible on 35 miles per hour systems.

Great example of an eye feature was our last storm. Jangmi, which had a complete eyewall on radar and microwave for more than 12 hours but never was upgraded. Should have been a typhoon landfall twice, Mindanao and Bohol. Agencies were blind...

[euro6208]

.

Looks like a dimple...storms can have dimples too

[euro6208]

But hey!!!!!!!!!!!!

At least this is better than most pathetic naked spiral LLC looking atlantic hurricanes that always look better when recon goes in. Dvorak fails...

[dexterlabio]

Two good ways to spot the LLCC is by visible satellite imagery and microwave image...

[dexterlabio]

The mid-level circulation could be well inside the cold dense overcast but the recent visible satellite imagery suggests that the low level circulation is a bit to the south of deep convection. This system may not be vertically stacked...it's still got some more days to fix that and according to the ECMWF model, the real bout of intensification will begin tomorrow.

[euro6208]

'EYE'

or maybe just the color scale for how cold the deep convection are...

[euro6208]

12Z Best track coming out...Will this get upgraded to a tropical storm 1 min?

[euro6208]

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/RA ... img_w.html

One thing is for sure this is such a small system. The Philippine Sea is notorious for developing the world's strongest storms. I won't be surprised if this develops stronger than what models are saying if it can find a sweet spot...