SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 8.7S 169.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AND ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDS - MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY - THAT ARE
FEEDING INTO A LARGE AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY NOTCH
FEATURE ON A 090501Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHALLOW NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
AFTER TAU 24, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL ASSUME
STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. TC 17P
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND OUTFLOW
IMPROVES WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE
CYCLONE TRACKS SOUTHWARD. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY TOWARDS TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXP0SED TO THE
STRONG WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 96, TC 17P WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD
AS THE STR IS WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION IN THE STEERING MECHANISM. IN VIEW OF THIS
DISCREPANCY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone PAM
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 8 issued 0736 UTC Monday 9 March 2015



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 09/0834 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.4S
169.8E AT 090600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR/VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECTS WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON VIS YEILDS DT=3.0, MET
AND PAT AGREES. THUS YEILDING 3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 8.9S 170.2E MOV SE AT 03KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 9.5S 170.6E MOV SSE AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 10.3S 170.7E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 10.9S 170.7E MOV S AT 03KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.

[euro6208]

So a 35 knots 10 min TC is a category 1 in Fiji's scale...

When does Cat 2,3,4,5 start?

[Yellow Evan]

FMS intensity forecasts seem way to conservative for my liking.

JTWC though, 120 knots peak on the first advisory(!!!)

[talkon]

So a 35 knots 10 min TC is a category 1 in Fiji's scale...

When does Cat 2,3,4,5 start?

Cat 2 : 48 knots
Cat 3 : 64 knots
Cat 4 : 86 knots
Cat 5 : 108 knots

from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales#Australia_and_Fiji

[talkon]

12Z Fix is out and the JTWC and KNES position differs by 0.8 degrees

TXPS21 KNES 091206
TCSWSP

A. 17P (PAM)

B. 09/1132Z

C. 9.1S

D. 170.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=3.0 BASED ON .5 WH BAND. PT=2.5. MET=3.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/1000Z 8.9S 170.2E AMSU


...SCHWARTZ

TPPS10 PGTW 091225

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM)

B. 09/1132Z

C. 8.30S

D. 170.32E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .70 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.0 DT. MET YIELDS A 2.5 AND PT YIELDS A 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[xtyphooncyclonex]

FMS intensity forecasts seem way to conservative for my liking.

JTWC though, 120 knots peak on the first advisory(!!!)

Same with what they did with Super Typhoon Haiyan over a year ago.

[talkon]

17P PAM 150309 1200 8.4S 170.3E SHEM 45 989

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 8.4S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4S 170.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 9.0S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 9.9S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 10.9S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 11.8S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.9S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.9S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.2S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 170.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM NORTHWEST OF
NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE
AND ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS - MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY - THAT ARE FEEDING INTO A LARGE, CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A 091000Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS IS NOW TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 17P
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND OUTFLOW
IMPROVES WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE
CYCLONE TRACKS SOUTHWARD. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY NEAR TAU 72 AS THE POLEWARD VENTILATION IS FURTHER
ENHANCED AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXP0SED TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES.
AFTER TAU 96, TC 17P WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR IS
WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
THE TRANSITION IN THE STEERING MECHANISM. IN VIEW OF THIS
DISCREPANCY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

[talkon]

So.. JTWC issues warning #2 just 6 hours after #1? I thought it is 12 hours for the SHEM.

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts.

17P PAM 150309 1800 9.6S 170.4E SHEM 55 982

[euro6208]

It somewhat looks like a mini Haiyan but much weaker and turning the other way around...

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAR 2015 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 8:53:18 S Lon : 170:37:34 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 987.1mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -82.9C Cloud Region Temp : -81.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.5 degrees

[CrazyC83]

That easily supports 55 or 60 kt. This is the kind of storm we wish we had Recon for...

[Yellow Evan]

That easily supports 55 or 60 kt. This is the kind of storm we wish we had Recon for...

The current intensity is 55 knts per JTWC.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAR 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 8:58:39 S Lon : 170:41:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 987.1mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.8 3.8

Center Temp : -88.5C Cloud Region Temp : -85.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.6 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

20150309 2332 -9.3 -170.4 T4.0/4.0 17P PAM

TXPS21 KNES 100018
TCSWSP

A. 17P (PAM)

B. 09/2332Z

C. 9.3S

D. 170.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0
WITH 0.5 ADDED FOR WHITE. MET = 3.5 AND PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/2157Z 9.2S 170.4E AMSU


...KIBLER

[cycloneye]

No surprise.PAM up to 65kts.

17P PAM 150310 0000 9.8S 170.5E SHEM 65 974

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 9:01:35 S Lon : 170:42:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 985.7mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -85.6C Cloud Region Temp : -86.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.7 degrees

[CrazyC83]

Once the eye pops out, look out.