EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, offshore track.

If this stays offshore, hello major #3 if the shear can stay low (it is forecast to diminish).

As for track, 18z GFS will be key.

[Kingarabian]

Hmm, offshore track.

If this stays offshore, hello major #3 if the shear can stay low (it is forecast to diminish).

As for track, 18z GFS will be key.

Shear will be key since Blancas cold wake is far away if it parallels the coast and continues west.

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, offshore track.

If this stays offshore, hello major #3 if the shear can stay low (it is forecast to diminish).

As for track, 18z GFS will be key.

Shear will be key since Ana's cold wake is far away if it parallels the coast and continues west.

Ana? Wrong basin buddy Blanca

Anyhow, SST's have already somewhat recovered from Blanca's wake.

Actually, biggest question mark is the track. Intensity will depend on track and to a lesser extent shear, which if it as strong as it is now, could allow for only moderate intensification.

[cycloneye]

Hmm, offshore track.

If this stays offshore, hello major #3 if the shear can stay low (it is forecast to diminish).

As for track, 18z GFS will be key.

Shear will be key since Ana's cold wake is far away if it parallels the coast and continues west.

You meant Blanca.

[Yellow Evan]

Ever critical 18z GFS run is rolling out.

[zeehag]

whose idea was it to make it go over my sleepinghead.... not coool..please push it much more away from my land space. thankyou.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS

[fendie]

On the 18z GFS it quickly moves to the WNW after 90 hours with slight weakening likely because its a tad further north than the Euro and thus has more land interaction. At 90 hours the 10m winds are 77 knots and the pressure is 998.



NOT on official forecast. Consult the NHC for official forecasts.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: On the 18z GFS it quickly moves to the WNW after 90 hours with slight weakening likely because its a tad further north than the Euro and thus has more land interaction. At 90 hours the 10m winds are 77 knots and the pressure is 998.

Don't take pressure/wind relationships on models literally. This run is still way west of the 12z GFS run.

[fendie]

:uarrow: On the 18z GFS it quickly moves to the WNW after 90 hours with slight weakening likely because its a tad further north than the Euro and thus has more land interaction. At 90 hours the 10m winds are 77 knots and the pressure is 998.

Don't take pressure/wind relationships on models literally. This run is still way west of the 12z GFS run.

Good to know, thanks. At second glance it heads more NW and barrels into the Mexican coast at 126 hours.

NOT on official forecast. Consult the NHC for official forecasts.

[Kingarabian]

Sorry. Just woke up.

[Yellow Evan]

Also don't know why there are no TS/hurricane watches up.

Given this:

Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NHC_Pacific 4h4 hours ago

A tropical storm or hurricane watch could be needed for the coast of Mexico later today. http://hurricanes.gov (2/2)

[cycloneye]

whose idea was it to make it go over my sleepinghead.... not coool..please push it much more away from my land space. thankyou.

Where are you?

[Cyclenall]

Hmm, offshore track.

If this stays offshore, hello major #3 if the shear can stay low (it is forecast to diminish).

That's the first thing that popped in my mind when I saw the track. Now that we have this semi-unique track on tap, we will have another interesting tropical cyclone for ourselves.

whose idea was it to make it go over my sleepinghead.... not coool..please push it much more away from my land space. thankyou.

Where are you?

Even has the coordinates in the location header.

[Yellow Evan]

whose idea was it to make it go over my sleepinghead.... not coool..please push it much more away from my land space. thankyou.

Looking at your location, you should avoid this system for another 4-5 days. Still lots of uncertainty, but expect a couple days of rain and rough seas Saturday through Monday. How much will depend on track.

Note the Disclaimer below though.

[Yellow Evan]

SAB is at 2.0. If TAFB is 2.0, I'd go 30. If 2.5, I'd let CMISS decide.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Remains at 30kt:

EP, 03, 2015061100, , BEST, 0, 126N, 994W, 30, 1003, TD

[Yellow Evan]

Since TAFB went 2.5, but DT was 3.0, I might go 35 knots.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

TD Three-E is looking better organized and looks like it will become a Tropical Storm soon. Let's see where its going to do.



Synopsis on TD Three-E and other basins: http://goo.gl/YV2Bbp

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at its outflow channels and how it has four of them (one per quadrant) already, SHIPS is probs overdoing shear. Don't be surprised at RI. This may make a run at a major if the track does not shift east. However, it's slow motion could cause some upwelling of it's own, and if the track shifts quite a bit west, it could move over the upwelling area from Blanca (which is warming, but could be problematic since if it came near it since it would mess up its instability). That's a huge if. Later down the line, this could move near the second upwell region by Blanca near Baja, but that pool is smaller, and should be recovered when 03E gets there late next week.