WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TS 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 15 August 2015

<Analyses at 15/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°30'(13.5°)
E147°00'(147.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°40'(14.7°)
E145°35'(145.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 17/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°25'(16.4°)
E143°10'(143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 18/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°05'(18.1°)
E138°30'(138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[dexterlabio]

I don't know with others but I'd go with the JMA intensity right now. This one looks better than Atsani at the moment though the latter has more chance of growing into a monster since it will be traversing the open waters.

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 147.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 147.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.0N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.8N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.5N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.3N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.8N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.1N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.3N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 147.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Goni is looking around 50 knots. As you can see, the storm has become better organized with shear decreasing and a CDO has formed. Curved band features have increased and have wrapped around ~80% of the center. Typhoon status could be achieved in 36 hours or sooner, and I think Cat 5 is still possible here. Goni has very strong poleward outflow, especially from the SSW. Even though if GFS modelling is correct, dry air could be an issue from the mid-levels, it's structure at least so far does not appear to be one that inherits dry air.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

16W GONI 150815 0600 14.1N 146.3E WPAC 45 989

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 150622

A. TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI)

B. 15/0532Z

C. 14.04N

D. 146.23E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET
YIELDS A 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/0231Z 13.87N 146.68E AMS2


CHAPPOTIN

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 AUG 2015 Time : 063000 UTC
Lat : 13:42:04 N Lon : 146:39:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.5mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -76.2C Cloud Region Temp : -66.8C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

[euro6208]

Been at work all day and it was a remarkable view up from the 30th floor, literally white out with very heavy rains and flooding everywhere around Guam...

[euro6208]

000
WGMY50 PGUM 150541
FFWMY
GUC010-151145-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0009.150815T0541Z-150815T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
337 PM CHST SAT AUG 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF GUAM...

* UNTIL 945 PM CHST SATURDAY

* AT 337 PM CHST...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF LIVING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT
QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN
IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. STAY AWAY FROM
RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS AS THEY CAN BECOME UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.

TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. ONLY 2 FEET OF RUNNING WATER WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A VEHICLE AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 1334 14464 1341 14465 1343 14463 1348 14476
1352 14481 1364 14485 1365 14488 1360 14490
1359 14495 1353 14494 1342 14478 1328 14476
1323 14467

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...
TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT
WATERS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[euro6208]

It does look like a Swan; symbol of loyalty moving through submitted by Korea...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 150933
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP162015
800 PM CHST SAT AUG 15 2015

...TROPICAL STORM GONI EAST OF ROTA AND CONTINUING TO THE
NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...
TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT
WATERS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 146.0E

ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH OF PAGAN
ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH OF AGRIHAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONI (16W)
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 146.0 EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. GONI IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING GONI JUST NORTH OF ROTA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM GONI
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM EAST
OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. A
150501Z SSMI, AS WELL AS RADAR FROM GUAM, SHOW THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM IN ADDITION TO SOME
BANDING FEATURES. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY AND RADAR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS A DT OF 3.0
FROM RJTD AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VWS AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE DEEP STR WILL SLOWLY
TRACK TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TS GONI TO ROUND THE RIDGE. EXPECT
NOMINAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AFTERWARDS DUE TO VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 96. EXPECT
THE SYSTEM TO DECAY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND LOWER OHC VALUES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, AS SUCH, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 145.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 145.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.8N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.3N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.5N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.8N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.7N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 145.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 39 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

[cycloneye]

STS 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 15 August 2015


<Analyses at 15/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°20'(14.3°)
E145°00'(145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E142°40'(142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E138°35'(138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 18/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°35'(18.6°)
E133°20'(133.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM

[euro6208]

000
WGMY50 PGUM 151940
FFWMY
GUC010-100-160130-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0011.150815T1940Z-150816T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
524 AM CHST SUN AUG 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLANDS OF ROTA AND GUAM...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CHST SUNDAY

* AT 524 AM CHST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
REFORMING OVER GUAM. HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
GONI WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT ROTA. 9 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ON GUAM OVER THE PAST 28 HOURS...POSSIBLE 3 TO
5 INCHES ON ROTA SINCE MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE ON BOTH
GUAM AND ROTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON GUAM AND ROTA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF LIVING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT
QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS BEFORE SUNRISE
WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. STAY AWAY
FROM RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS AS THEY CAN BECOME UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.

DO NOT DRIVE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF DRIVING...TURN AROUND...
DO NOT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD DEATHS
OCCUR IN VEHICLES. ONLY 2 FEET OF RUNNING WATER WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CARRY A VEHICLE AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 1334 14464 1341 14465 1352 14481 1412 14511
1420 14527 1419 14528 1411 14521 1413 14516
1377 14494 1361 14490 1359 14495 1353 14494
1342 14478 1328 14476 1324 14469

$$

CHAN .


000
WGMY80 PGUM 151953
FLSMY

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
543 AM CHST SUN AUG 16 2015

GUC110-120-160145-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FA.Y.0009.150815T1953Z-150816T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TINIAN GU-SAIPAN GU-
543 AM CHST SUN AUG 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
THE ISLANDS OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CHST SUNDAY

* AT 543 AM CHST...RAIN GAUGES ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN HAVE REPORTED 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS SPORADIC HEAVY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GONI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS...AND ALSO
NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS...AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS...FLOOD WATER CAN CAUSE
VEHICLES TO STALL AND LEAVE DRIVERS STRANDED.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PAY ATTENTION TO WATER LEVELS AND TAKE ACTION
TO PROTECT PROPERTIES IF YOU LIVE NEAR THESE AREAS.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 1522 14578 1515 14580 1517 14575 1511 14576
1504 14564 1495 14567 1492 14563 1501 14558
1509 14563 1508 14566 1510 14570 1521 14572
1529 14581

$$

CHAN .

[euro6208]

Latest obs from Anderson reporting sustained west winds of 32 mph gusting to 49 mph with a peak gust of 58 mph and cp of 990 mb, now up to 997 mb. It's raining like cats and dogs...

A.B Won Pat Guam west winds of 28 gusting to 38 mph 1002 mb...

Rota north winds of 20 gusting to 25 mph 1001 mb...

Saipan east 32 gusting to 46 mph 999 mb

Tinian 998 mb with east winds gusting to 39 mph

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 151707
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM GONI (16W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
307 AM CHST SUN AUG 16 2015

...TROPICAL STORM GONI PASSING BETWEEN ROTA AND TINIAN...

.REFERENCE INFORMATION...
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN REMAIN IN CONDITION OF READINESS 1.

GUAM REMAINS IN CONDITION OF READINESS 2.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS ON
GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...
TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT
WATERS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA UNTIL
530 AM THIS MORNING.

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TINIAN AND SAIPAN UNTIL 530 AM THIS MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.5N...LONGITUDE 145.5E...ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ROTA AND 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-
NORTHWEST. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM GONI...WHILE INTENSIFYING...WILL PASS BETWEEN ROTA
AND TINIAN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH MONDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE AS FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN
CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY.

FOR SMALL CRAFT WHO ARE STILL AT SEA...RADIO YOUR DISTRESS CALL
OR DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY DISTRESS BEACON. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEARING LIFE JACKETS...AND SURVIVAL SUITS IF AVAILABLE.

CLOSELY MONITOR ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
ANNOUNCEMENTS BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES FOR THE LATEST
STORM INFORMATION.

&&

GUZ002-PMZ152-160000-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
307 AM CHST SUN AUG 16 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS...
DAMAGING WINDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING..THEN START TO DECREASE BY NOON.

...SEAS AND SURF...
SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FEET THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY
NOON...FALLING TO BETWEEN 9 TO 11 FEET BY THIS EVENING. DANGEROUS
SURF OF 15 TO 18 FEET WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY DECLINE AFTER NOON BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH
TONIGHT. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. SEAS AND SURF WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ON MONDAY.

..OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS STILL POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
MORNING.

$$

GUZ001-PMZ151-160000-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
307 AM CHST SUN AUG 16 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS...
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN START TO DECREASE BY NOON.

...SEAS AND SURF...
SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY
NOON...FALLING TO BETWEEN 8 TO 10 FEET BY THIS EVENING. DANGEROUS
SURF OF 12 TO 16 FEET WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY DECLINE AFTER NOON BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH TONIGHT.
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
SEAS AND SURF WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ON MONDAY.

..OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS STILL POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
MORNING.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-160000-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
307 AM CHST SUN AUG 16 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS...
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 TO 65 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN START TO DECREASE BY NOON. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL
BE NEAR TINIAN

...SEAS AND SURF...
SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FEET THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY
NOON...FALLING TO BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET BY THIS EVENING. DANGEROUS
SURF OF 12 TO 18 FEET WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY DECLINE AFTER NOON BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH TONIGHT.
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
SEAS AND SURF WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ON MONDAY.

..OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES TINIAN...AND 4 TO 6 INCHES
ON SAIPAN...IS POSSIBLE
BY MONDAY MORNING.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9AM LATER THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

CHAN .

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 145.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 145.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.8N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.3N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.5N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.8N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.7N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 145.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 39 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

12Z EURO peak of 913 mb and rides up between China and Okinawa...