ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

Vorticity up in the Bahamas a 144 hours.

[SFLcane]

As nothing though possibly sheared to death entering Bahamas. GFS showing a hostile environment

[TheStormExpert]

My guess is the Euro will drop development also on the 12z run.

[SFLcane]

European ensembles show nada. Fact is shear zone and sinking airmass ain't going anywhere.

[Riptide]

98L lives...There will be at least one significant US TC this season, mark my words. Which one remains to be seen.

[Blown Away]

So we are back to tracking a vorticity long range? Think we need to accept this El Nino will live up to the predictions. We got our 1 major with Danny...

[Hammy]

So we are back to tracking a vorticity long range? Think we need to accept this El Nino will live up to the predictions. We got our 1 major with Danny...

Keep in mind the GFS didn't develop Danny on many of the runs leading up to it (and even after it formed), and NHC is probably taking that into consideration. The model has done terrible with genesis this year.

[PTrackerLA]

So we are back to tracking a vorticity long range? Think we need to accept this El Nino will live up to the predictions. We got our 1 major with Danny...

I call it closed isobar hunting. They are hard to come by these days.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM shows a major hurricane tracking north and is in decent agreement with the 00Z ECMWF. GEM hints of some ridging building in to over SE Canada.

[Alyono]

doesn't matter what the flow pattern is when there is no storm to be steered

[SFLcane]

And there's your door gatorcane easy recurve. Long range so plenty of time to change.

[gatorcane]

And there's your door gatorcane easy recurve. Long range so plenty of time to change.

On that GEM run, it has it turning NW at the end. Check out the loop.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=214

[SFLcane]

And there's your door gatorcane easy recurve. Long range so plenty of time to change.

On that GEM run, it has it turning NW at the end.

Sure.. Weakened subtropical ridge.

[LarryWx]

Both major model sets show it and climatology favors it, what you say may be true, but the odds favor it recurving.

IF it becomes a TC in the E MDR, then odds would strongly favor it not reaching the CONUS, especially with it being a strong El Niño, due mainly to recurvature or dissipation before it could reach there. The longterm odds of any one system developing there in August and reaching the CONUS during a strong Nino is likely no higher than about 15% based on many decades of records. However, that means there is always the chance this one would be an exception such as was the case in 1899:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

However, IF 98L were to not become a TC until much further west, say close to the Lesser Antilles, then that would obviously be a whole different ballgame oddswise, especially if it were to become a Caribbean Cruiser. It is way too early to know where, if at all, it will become a TC.

All that discussion above proves the point I was making earlier. Thanks for providing your analysis.
The point is to watch this evolve carefully before 100% proclaiming that 98L will recurve.

You're welcome. After looking at 98L more closely along with the model consensus, one can see that it is already very likely going to be approaching the L.A.'s by Wed! Considering that it still doesn't look all that close to reaching TD status and with its very fast movement, the odds of this ending up being a recurving TC well E of the CONUS are dropping rather quickly. However, at the same time, one has to wonder if it would even be a TC if it were to enter the Caribbean. Perhaps, this won't become a TC, if at all, until pretty far west in the basin. If that were to be the case, then the recurving well east of the CONUS possibility would obviously be gone. In the meantime, I do have to wonder if 98L will ever do much of anything. Its fast movement is very likely not doing it any favors developmentwise for the near term.

[northjaxpro]

Spot on analysis Larry, rather excellent I will add!
I agree with what you pointed out.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF up in about 15 minutes. That 12Z GEM run is an eye opener with that NW bend at the end showing a possible major hurricane at 960MB. Let's see what the ECMWF run shows.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF initialized:

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

12Z GEM shows a major hurricane tracking north and is in decent agreement with the 00Z ECMWF. GEM hints of some ridging building in to over SE Canada.

Indeed the Euro this morning had me very concerned. Luckily there is yet no model consensus Danny will even survive the next few days, however it is King Euro so I'm taking notice. Or is the system 98L it is depicting, I'm confused...

[stormlover2013]

Don't even look at the runs past 5 days, will keep flip flopping

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 24 hours: