ATL: DANNY - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

A good explanation on Hebert's Box from Wikipedia...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I will assume the NHC is not considering the models reflecting a more northerly track. I know that all the models will change this far out. But there seems to be a good agreement in the shot term as far as track, into or near the islands. But after that if it does take a more northerly track, that could mean bigger issues depending on the steering setup down the road.

[floridasun78]

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits

[northjaxpro]

Vorticity nearly gone at 120h

Yeah, Danny really weak on this run. Meanwhile, EURO really develops what would be Erika behind it. And possibly Fred off the African coast on this run. Could we be seeing the peak of CV season coming up?

[CrazyC83]

18z Intensity Guidance

Based on a few models only, it seems a more northerly track may find better conditions...[/quote]

NAVGEM is one of the least reliable models though.

[jlauderdal]

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits

track seems reasonable...the question is whether its a tropical system as it moves away from the islands...if it survives it could find a better setup...really far out still...we know hispanola and eastern cuba can have major effects on the system e.g shredder...the systems can run into the terrain or the inflow can be cut even if it stays offshore

[tropicwatch]

Looks like a 50/50 split on north or south of PR and DR but I am thinking north.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits

track seems reasonable...the question is whether its a tropical system as it moves away from the islands...if it survives it could find a better setup...really far out still...we know hispanola and eastern cuba can have major effects on the system e.g shredder...the systems can run into the terrain or the inflow can be cut even if it stays offshore

Do you feel it will go through the islands then and not north of them?

[Weatherboy1]

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits

track seems reasonable...the question is whether its a tropical system as it moves away from the islands...if it survives it could find a better setup...really far out still...we know hispanola and eastern cuba can have major effects on the system e.g shredder...the systems can run into the terrain or the inflow can be cut even if it stays offshore

Do you feel it will go through the islands then and not north of them?

My suspicion ... And it's only that (based on semi-educated amateur guesswork) ... Is that Danny will miss the islands slightly to the north. It will only take a small deviation and/or slightly further north starting point for the turn back to the WNW/W for Danny to miss the worst of the island mountain ranges.

[jlauderdal]

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits

track seems reasonable...the question is whether its a tropical system as it moves away from the islands...if it survives it could find a better setup...really far out still...we know hispanola and eastern cuba can have major effects on the system e.g shredder...the systems can run into the terrain or the inflow can be cut even if it stays offshore

Do you feel it will go through the islands then and not north of them?

ask a floridian on this board where they think this one is going and they will say north of the islands, me included...

texans will be next on the train...give it a few days..been watching these things way to long to believe otherwise

its a toss up on track but i dont think it survives past 75w...small systems don't have much staying power and this one doesnt look to expand much...this season is just not very efficient for hurricane activity..if something can get going and hang tough then it would seem with the ridging we have seen it could come a long way west but it has to develop and survive and that seems to be a real issue with these hostile conditions...it only takes one in your location and everything i just said is garbage to the people it hits

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree with you on it not survivng. The way its looking down the road it doesn't seem to matter if it goes south, over ,or just north of the islands. Land interaction is going to disrupt the tiny circulation and shear will come in and finish it off. Seeing some pretty potent shear values popping up due to ull.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BobHarlem]

What are the models seeing on Sunday that most all of them really weaken Danny?

[TheProfessor]

What are the models seeing on Sunday that most all of them really weaken Danny?

I think the models that are weakening Danny are doing it due to a more southern path that includes land interaction and slightly more unfavorable water. The models that are keeping him strong have him going further north missing Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

[northjaxpro]

What are the models seeing on Sunday that most all of them really weaken Danny?

The models are also picking up on the increase in shear ahead of Danny which will weaken the cyclone significantly by Sunday.

[gatorcane]

What are the models seeing on Sunday that most all of them really weaken Danny?

The models are also picking up on the increase in shear ahead of Danny which will weaken the cyclone significantly by Sunday.

Two images which explain why models are weakening Danny (first is dry air, second is shear), both at 90 hours:

[Weatherboy1]

TVCN consensus model track keeps shifting gradually north. As you can see here, its now only skirting the N coast of PR ...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_04.gif

If it continues to do so for a couple more runs, the NHC track will likely be shifted north of the islands, and Hispanola in particular. That would reduce any potential weakness caused by land interaction, so definitely a trend worth watching. Just my opinion as always

[TheStormExpert]

00z Model Guidance



00z Intensity Guidance

[AJC3]

Reminder: When you make personal forecasts that are specific in nature about a current tropical cyclone, board rules state that you need to attach the following disclaimer (or some similar version thereof) to the end of your post, be it in the post itself, or in a signature...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks in advance from the mod and admin team.

[SouthFLTropics]

What are the models seeing on Sunday that most all of them really weaken Danny?

The models are also picking up on the increase in shear ahead of Danny which will weaken the cyclone significantly by Sunday.

Two images which explain why models are weakening Danny (first is dry air, second is shear), both at 90 hours:

That band of shear doesn't look to be too large. If Danny can hold together and punch through it we may have a new ballgame on our hands.

SFT

[blp]

TVCN consensus model track keeps shifting gradually north. As you can see here, its now only skirting the N coast of PR ...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_04.gif

If it continues to do so for a couple more runs, the NHC track will likely be shifted north of the islands, and Hispanola in particular. That would reduce any potential weakness caused by land interaction, so definitely a trend worth watching. Just my opinion as always

Yep, the Xtrap is NW which could be temporary but reflects what has been happening last couple of hours with a more NW component of motion. I think the Euro is the furthest south now. Let's see what happens on tonight's runs.