Global model runs discussion

#6361 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 07, 2013 3:50 pm

18Z NAM is showing Caribbean development but in the medium term at 84 hours. It is the NAM so use with caution! Seems to be on a NW heading:

#6362 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Sep 07, 2013 5:10 pm

#6363 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Sep 07, 2013 5:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z NAM is showing Caribbean development but in the medium term at 84 hours. It is the NAM so use with caution! Seems to be on a NW heading:

http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/7977/cxvn.png

gator, nam is consistent with the globals in lower pressure next week, gonna need something close in this season

CourierPR · #6364 Postby **CourierPR** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 6:26 am

"Threat for tropical cyclone formation greatest in Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea September 15 - 22."

So states Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove on Twitter.

#6365 Postby **SFLcane** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:06 am

#6366 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:16 am

Adrian,why you are rolling eyes? Ensembles have a system in NW Caribbean and that is important. I guess you expected more things developing being September right?

Hurricaneman · #6367 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 10:14 am

heres my idea that the GFS has been developing something in the Caribbean the last few days by around day 12, but the GFS is towards the BOC with it while its ensemble mean is in the Yucatan Channel so its still there in a few days pre truncation then we may have a better understanding of where this is going, its intensity or even if its going to form at all

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

ROCK · #6368 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 10:29 am

NAVGEM showing this a well...EURO to some extent. good model support so the odds are good something will get going very soon close to home...

#6369 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 12:56 pm

Plenty of action across the Atlantic when you look at how the 240 Hour CMC 12Z run ends.

There are four lows with tropical development possibilities in this run:

To put this in perspective, here is what the GFS shows for this same timeframe. Here we see only two lows with any potential. Of course the 1002MB low in the Central Atlantic is 91L:

#6370 Postby **N2FSU** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 6:02 pm

18z GFS; 324hr. SW Gulf action

#6371 Postby **N2FSU** » Sun Sep 08, 2013 6:05 pm

18z GFS; 384hr

ninel conde · #6372 Postby **ninel conde** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:38 am

GFS showing little or nothing in long range. low over se canada, neg NAO and the presistent east coast trof. another possible weak storm in BOC.

#6373 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:53 am

yeah... a TC causing major flooding and loss of life over Central America is nothing...

ninel conde · #6374 Postby **ninel conde** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 6:15 am

N2FSU wrote:18z GFS; 384hr

looks interesting, but im just looking out to 180 now as the GFS past that has been showing a nw atlantic ridge only to keep pushing it back.

CourierPR · #6375 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:06 am

Joe Bastardi says this morning to watch for late week development in SW Gulf and also to watch system ahead of Humberto which will dive into Caribbean.

TheStormExpert · #6376 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:17 am

CourierPR wrote:Joe Bastardi says this morning to watch for late week development in SW Gulf and also to watch system ahead of Humberto which will dive into Caribbean.

The system ahead of Humberto is former 98L right?

#6377 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:51 am

^^ Yes.

Latest MJO phase plot

Bocadude85 · #6378 Postby **Bocadude85** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 8:19 am

ninel conde wrote:GFS showing little or nothing in long range. low over se canada, neg NAO and the presistent east coast trof. another possible weak storm in BOC.

Do you even look at the GFS runs? The GFS has been consistently showing activity in the long range. I see a TC in the BOC and another one in MDR and a tropical cyclone moving northward out of the Caribbean towards the Bahamas/Florida.

Here is the 6z GFS

108 Hours

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_atlantic_108_precip_p24.gif

180 Hours

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_atlantic_180_precip_p24.gif

360 Hours

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_atlantic_360_precip_p24.gif

#6379 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:25 pm

Latest euro monthlies hint at a very active tropics in Oct.

#6380 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:28 pm

SFLcane wrote:Latest euro monthlies hint at a very active tropics in Oct.

In what areas of basin?

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