ATL: DANNY - Models

[caneman]

I did see that about the GFDL and honestly seems plausible right now.

[toad strangler]

The recently hot HWRF @126 and has Danny in shreds but also showing what would be a island chain miss to the N.

[ronjon]

Here's the animated version of the 06z GFDL. Watch the future runs of the operational GFS - they may start trending this way. Noticed the 06z maintained the vorticity all the way up to the north coast of Cuba on that run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082106-danny04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Kohlecane]

Here's the animated version of the 06z GFDL. Watch the future runs of the operational GFS - they may start trending this way. Noticed the 06z maintained the vorticity all the way up to the north coast of Cuba on that run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082106-danny04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I do agree seems. would be interesting if it pulls this off especially interesting wor the SE CONUS or even if some how stay W and make it to the GOM

[cycloneye]

Is interesting that many models show an uptick at the end.NAVGEM winning on intensity?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

[toad strangler]

The recently hot HWRF @126 and has Danny in shreds but also showing what would be a island chain miss to the N.

And the HWRF-Parent @126. Shredded for sure, but north.

[Blown Away]

The GFDL is one tropical model that suggests missing the entire shredder chain to the N and shows Danny re-gaining strength @ 126

So did the GFDL get this right or just get lucky?

[ronjon]

Yeah Luis I think the system based on some of the models finds a pocket of lower shear off the north coast of Hispanola and PR after weakening with shear from 60W-65W. The future path and longevity of this system all depends on if it can stay just north of Hispanola. If it does, the system may once again deepen as it approaches S FL-Bahamas.

[Blown Away]

12Z GUIDANCE:

[ronjon]

Looks like the official NHC track is on the south side of the guidance envelope now.

[gatorcane]

Consensus has shifted to just north of the Hispaniola following the latest ECMWF track:

[MGC]

Hope the GFDL is wrong along with the HWRF as both modes bring Danny north of PR. Danny passing north of PR could be a problem. Sure the shear is going to do a number on Danny but the cyclone could find a pocket of favorable conditions and take off again......MGC

[Weatherboy1]

I said it yesterday and I'll say it again. IF Danny misses the worst of the bad terrain on PR and/or Hispanola, he could surprise to the upside in terms of future intensity. No guarantees that will happen, but it is certainly in the realm of possibility. I find it interesting that some of the models that suggest shear-based weakening starting in 24 hours or so, are now suggesting re-strengthening once the shear zone is cleared. Keep an eye on this.

My opinion only, listen to the experts for advice, etc., etc.

[Nimbus]

PR might only experience winds from the southwest quadrant which wouldn't be that bad (historically).
The ridging filling back in after the weakness will be a problem if Danny stays north of the islands.

They have been modeling a weak sheared storm with lots of land interaction from the islands.

Lets see what happens when the new data gets into the models later today, or even better after recon.

[TheStormExpert]

Another look at the 12z model guidance. Trending a little north.

12z Model Guidance



12z Intensity Guidance

[MGC]

I think the gulfsteam is flying today. So once that data is fed into the models we should have better idea of where Danny might go.....MGC

[PTrackerLA]

12z models and intensity forecast are quite interesting. Don't count Danny out just yet. Fascinating little storm.

[jlauderdal]

Hope the GFDL is wrong along with the HWRF as both modes bring Danny north of PR. Danny passing north of PR could be a problem. Sure the shear is going to do a number on Danny but the cyclone could find a pocket of favorable conditions and take off again......MGC

It has to make it to PR before we deal with what happens after

[Blown Away]

Hope the GFDL is wrong along with the HWRF as both modes bring Danny north of PR. Danny passing north of PR could be a problem. Sure the shear is going to do a number on Danny but the cyclone could find a pocket of favorable conditions and take off again......MGC

It has to make it to PR before we deal with what happens after

06z GFDL does drop Danny down to minimal TS, but then begins to rebuild it at the end of run just north of DR. Again it's the GFDL...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS Ensembles