Global model runs discussion

[AJC3]

while the models did not get the TC formation very well... they did pick up on an area of general low pressure several days in advance

Very true. The ECM (per the 6/21 post) was the first to catch on to the idea of "something" in the mid to lower levels near the SE us coast dropping southward to near the east coast of FL.

[TheStormExpert]

Should probably keep this in mind next time the GFS tries to give us it's phantom storm shenanigans again!

[CFLHurricane]

Do you only track storms when they're at risk of impacting Florida or are by Florida? Cause Arthur is still out there and is at its peak.

I'll check in on other hurricanes, but I'm really most interested in the ones that will affect me.

[rolltide]

I don't think I've ever seen this thread so quiet during the season. Maybe we'll get some action in a couple weeks.

[Hurricaneman]

I don't think I've ever seen this thread so quiet during the season. Maybe we'll get some action in a couple weeks.

its because nothing of note is showing up in the models

[somethingfunny]

I don't think I've ever seen this thread so quiet during the season. Maybe we'll get some action in a couple weeks.

its because nothing of note is showing up in the models

I don't start checking the models on a daily basis until I see some chatter here about some potential systems, but there are people who do check them on a daily basis who will post here in the thread when they see something, and I'm thankful for those guys!

On a personal hunch based on climatological experience, the huge cold front moving into the Southern US this week could set the ball in motion for some home brew activity. Either an MCS riding the northwest flow into the Gulf/Bahamas or a leftover surface low once the front lifts away could turn into something, especially if the front clears all the way into the Gulf. These systems usually aren't anticipated very well by the global models since their origins lie in mesoscale features, but if it's destined to happen we'll see some model rumblings a few days prior.

[rolltide]

Thanks for the reply somethingfunny, just seems that in the past the models would always have something 10 days out during the season. Maybe it's a sign the models are getting better with long range forecasts.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a hint of something in East Atlantic on mid range?

GFS



ECMWF

[Hammy]

Maybe it's a sign the models are getting better with long range forecasts.

The GFS was of particular problem last year, forecasting probably 4-5x as many storms as actually formed, and even this June kept showing a phantom storm in the Carib. It seems likely that they fixed the issue, so it may be safe to put at least a little more stock into the runs this year.

[gatorcane]

Maybe a hint of something in East Atlantic on mid range?

The 12Z CMC is showing something now in a similar timeframe (162 hour image below). Also of note the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are all showing another rather vigorous wave rolling off Africa behind this area in the long-range about 8-10 days from now.

The GFS was of particular problem last year, forecasting probably 4-5x as many storms as actually formed, and even this June kept showing a phantom storm in the Carib. It seems likely that they fixed the issue, so it may be safe to put at least a little more stock into the runs this year.

I recall last year the global models including the GFS were eerily quiet and showed nothing even in the very long-range as we approached the Cape Verde season that started in mid August.

[blp]

Despite the posts this year about another MDR dud this year I just don't believe it yet. Looking at the long range CFS the past few days shows lots of strong waves coming off Africa in August. I still think this season will surprise some. I worry about the sleeper waves that come across weak only to flourish further West. I also think the delayed El Nino is going to help the MDR during the peak months.

[cycloneye]

[quote="blp"]Despite all the posts this year about another MDR dud this year I just don't believe it yet. Looking at the long range CFS the past few days shows lots of strong waves coming off Africa in August. I still think this season will surprise some. I worry about the sleeper waves that come across weak only to flourish further West. I also think the delayed El Nino is going to help the MDR during the peak months.[/quote]

A good point about that. MDR may get a few favorable pockets to get some waves going.Cat 4 Erika was at MDR with that strong El Nino of 1997 so there is always the chance to get something big in not the ideal conditions.

[StormTracker]

Forgive me if this question has already been posted, but does anyone know if there have ever been two or more consecutive "extremely dud" (a.k.a.: last season) seasons in the recorded history of hurricane seasons???

[wxman57]

Despite the posts this year about another MDR dud this year I just don't believe it yet. Looking at the long range CFS the past few days shows lots of strong waves coming off Africa in August. I still think this season will surprise some. I worry about the sleeper waves that come across weak only to flourish further West. I also think the delayed El Nino is going to help the MDR during the peak months.

I think that the waves moving off the west coast of Africa will tend to be stronger than last year, but the general conditions across the MDR look as hostile (or more so) than 2013. I plotted the mid level moisture anomaly from July 1-12 (below). The dry air is expanding westward from the May-June analysis. The new ECMWF forecasts quite high surface pressures in the MDR for August-October, an indication that the dry air will continue. Waves will likely struggle until they move west of or north of the MDR.

[BigB0882]

Can't the first few big waves help to moisten the atmosphere, though? Almost acting like sacrificial waves for those to come later.

[MGC]

Lots of dry air and upper level shear in the Atlantic and Caribbean currently. Don't see anything happening down in the MDR for a while......MGC

[HURRICANELONNY]

Things can change in the tropics fast. We are actually right where were suppose to be in mid July with one Cat 2 hurricane. I think the strong trough coming down the pike will help evacuate the dry air in the tropics. That's just my opinion. Not a pro by any means. So don't let your guard down this season. Only takes one to mess up your life.

[somethingfunny]

Can't the first few big waves help to moisten the atmosphere, though? Almost acting like sacrificial waves for those to come later.

I've heard this for several years now and it hasn't panned out for several years now, so I'm doubtful of that changing in this season, though of course it's still anyone's guess.

Personally I'm keeping my eyes peeled for any more surprise homebrews like Arthur.

[hurricanetrack]

It is mid-July, if there was not a lot of dry air in the MDR I would be quite worried and for a completely different reason

[Ntxw]

Can't the first few big waves help to moisten the atmosphere, though? Almost acting like sacrificial waves for those to come later.

I've heard this for several years now and it hasn't panned out for several years now, so I'm doubtful of that changing in this season, though of course it's still anyone's guess.

Personally I'm keeping my eyes peeled for any more surprise homebrews like Arthur.

The map that wxman57 posted can actually be mapped further back 12 months or more and you will still see similar results. The dry air is result of lots of sinking motion across the MDR. In a few months there will be periods of a few weeks (as there always is) of better conditions for a short period for maybe a few systems. However if you're looking for persistent activity the long term background conditions are not favorable across the Carib/MDR. The subtropics is the playground IMO this year but that will be more dependent on MCV's and frontal troughs and if they can spin up like Arthur..