ATL: DANNY - Models

[Siker]

Euro initializes at 1007mb / 40kt. Globals continue to struggle.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Euro initializes at 1007mb / 40kt. Globals continue to struggle.

lol 40 knots is less than half of the intensity it was just raised to.

[stormlover2013]

models don't do well with small storms and also intensity thats common sense, but what the EURO is good at is the Upper level pattern and it has done really well with danny

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

Guys these are global models with 13+ km resolution. They aren't going to initialize a system this small that well.

[tolakram]

Euro is north of the previous run.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Awe, isn't that cute...Danny's got a sister following him.

[tolakram]

Vorticity significantly north of previous run (image below)

12Z


0Z

[gatorcane]

Awe, isn't that cute...Danny's got a sister following him.

Yep that one bears watching for sure. Thread here on it:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117456&hilit=

[tolakram]

Vorticity ends up over Cuba.

[ROCK]

GFDL was supposed to be replaced by the HWRF years ago. Turns out the model was over doing the intensity as compared to the GFDL. I cant recall ever seeing a GFDL run with higher intensity than its HWRF cousin. That said, every blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while Danny has peaked and is fixing to get a shear haircut...

[stormlover2013]

one behind looks likes ridge breaks down and will be fish but you never know

[NCSTORMMAN]

Intensity models trending up. Per Allan Huffman on twitter https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/634802562198188032

[WPBWeather]

one behind looks likes ridge breaks down and will be fish but you never know

To be honest, I'm not sure anyone knows how Danny and anything behind it will turn out. But we can keep positive thoughts I guess.

[SouthFLTropics]

Intensity models trending up. Per Allan Huffman on twitter https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/634802562198188032

Don't think that's what he's saying...looks like most models take it back DOWN to tropical storm strength.

SFT

[NCSTORMMAN]

Intensity models trending up. Per Allan Huffman on twitter https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/634802562198188032

Don't think that's what he's saying...looks like most models take it back DOWN to tropical storm strength.

SFT

That is what I am saying. Look at previous intensity posts. Most had this thing near TD or dying off and now a lot of them are pointing up at the end.

[floridasun78]

i saw GFDL-P i say what the @@@@ i hope it wrong.it like Andrew type storm that happen doing El Niño year

[YoshiMike]

Vorticity ends up over Cuba.

I really just have no opinion on what Danny will do. I may be new, but I already know that even the SLIGHTEST little wobble can effect the whole track and possibly even the development down the road. I Honestly just don't know what to think until it makes it (if it makes it) to PR and Hispaniola. But that's just my opinion and nothing else.

Looks like it is thinkin the tropical wave behind it is pretty strong. I am new here and kind of new to forecasting, so I have a question for y'all. Do hurricanes like... this is going to sound really dumb I think... do they clear a path? Like if a wave were to follow close to Danny, would it be easier for the wave to develop because of Danny?