ATL: DANNY - Models

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TheStormExpert
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#721 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:16 pm

18z Model Guidance :darrow:

Image

18z Intensity Guidance :darrow:

Image
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#722 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:26 pm

:uarrow:
TVCN consensus moved off the big islands at 18z, thus intensity models are trending up late in the forecast.

NHC likes the TVCN consensus for track prediction... I'm anxious to see if the 5pm Update 5 day intensity goes up now that the NHC's favorite consensus has moved off the big islands??
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#723 Postby ronjon » Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:33 pm

Blown Away wrote::uarrow:
TVCN consensus moved off the big islands at 18z, thus intensity models are trending up late in the forecast.


Look for the NHC to nudge their track northward again at the next advisory. They're still on the south side of the guidance.
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#724 Postby gulf701 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:09 pm

It appears that the models trending North are gaining confidence with the NHC 5 pm ESDT advisory. It sure looks like they shifted Danny's track slightly North.
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#725 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:11 pm

gulf701 wrote:It appears that the models trending North are gaining confidence with the NHC 5 pm ESDT advisory. It sure looks like they shifted Danny's track slightly North.


From the 5PM discussion:

"The new forecast track has a noise-level nudge
to the north of the previous forecast and is in best agreement with
the GFS and ECMWF models."
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#726 Postby boca » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:12 pm

They also said by 120 hours Danny will degenerate into a tropical wave which the GFS, Euro and other models think will happen.
Last edited by boca on Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#727 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:13 pm

Guys moving it north doesn't mean to much it's going to be some hostile conditions, moves north it will ride that ridge and storm will be a gom type storm, I just think Danny is making the Atlantic for down the road and making it s more favorable in the coming weeks, just my opinion
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#728 Postby blp » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:25 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Guys moving it north doesn't mean to much it's going to be some hostile conditions, moves north it will ride that ridge and storm will be a gom type storm, I just think Danny is making the Atlantic for down the road and making it s more favorable in the coming weeks, just my opinion


Land interaction is a big deal IMO. Both GFS and Euro track this right over major land masses while GFDL and HWRF do not thus they allow the low level center to survive and regenerate convection. Despite it getting sheared it will have a vigorous low level circulation which should stay intact for a few days and the one thing that can totally destroy that instantly is land interaction. So the northerly route eliminates one major impediment to regeneration.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#729 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:36 pm

I can see that, but condition are still little hostile, I mean I love tracking these things so I hope it doesn't dissipate this gives me stuff to do if u know what I'm saying
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#730 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:06 pm

18z GFS looks like it holds onto an intact Danny up to 66 hours and then loses it near Puerto Rico. I still think the GFS is too far south with this, especially based on the current motion.

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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#731 Postby Weatherlover12 » Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:22 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Guys moving it north doesn't mean to much it's going to be some hostile conditions, moves north it will ride that ridge and storm will be a gom type storm, I just think Danny is making the Atlantic for down the road and making it s more favorable in the coming weeks, just my opinion


Yes it does, if doesn't move over land than it can have a chance. Land interaction means everything!!! - WeatherLover12
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#732 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:23 pm

I just have a feeling that the models are going to fail on this one. Intensity wise and path wise. I do not think they are initializing properly.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#733 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:53 pm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=


given his present condition here is the current steering....still aways from rounding the subtropical ridge if he even makes it that far....wall of shear right here...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#734 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:59 pm

00z models...

Image
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#735 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:01 pm

00z Intensity:
Image
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#736 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:16 pm

Majority still tightly clustered across islands, but decidedly more north on DR/Haiti. What is interesting is that all outliers are north,not a single one is south. Most surprising is the intensity forecast. Anything past cat 2 is pure fantasy. I am very surprised that the majority keep him alive at least as a tropical storm or better.
JMHO
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ATL: DANNY - Models

#737 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:21 pm

Blown Away wrote:00z Intensity:
Image

The trend for Danny will be like the Dow this past week
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#738 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:23 pm

Oops, just realized that the chart is only 120.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#739 Postby Steve H. » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:26 pm

I actually don't agree. I believe that Danny will live to fight another day. That will be next week.

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Re: ATL: DANNY - Models

#740 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:26 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Blown Away wrote:00z Intensity:
Image

The trend for Danny will be like the Dow this past week


Lol, expecting a crash are we.

I don't know about that.

I certainly wouldn't have invested in Danny earlier this week. He could buck the trends.
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