ATL: DANNY - Models

[TheStormExpert]

18z Model Guidance



18z Intensity Guidance

[Blown Away]

TVCN consensus moved off the big islands at 18z, thus intensity models are trending up late in the forecast.

NHC likes the TVCN consensus for track prediction... I'm anxious to see if the 5pm Update 5 day intensity goes up now that the NHC's favorite consensus has moved off the big islands??

[ronjon]

:uarrow:
TVCN consensus moved off the big islands at 18z, thus intensity models are trending up late in the forecast.

Look for the NHC to nudge their track northward again at the next advisory. They're still on the south side of the guidance.

[gulf701]

It appears that the models trending North are gaining confidence with the NHC 5 pm ESDT advisory. It sure looks like they shifted Danny's track slightly North.

[Siker]

It appears that the models trending North are gaining confidence with the NHC 5 pm ESDT advisory. It sure looks like they shifted Danny's track slightly North.

From the 5PM discussion:

"The new forecast track has a noise-level nudge
to the north of the previous forecast and is in best agreement with
the GFS and ECMWF models."

[boca]

They also said by 120 hours Danny will degenerate into a tropical wave which the GFS, Euro and other models think will happen.

[stormlover2013]

Guys moving it north doesn't mean to much it's going to be some hostile conditions, moves north it will ride that ridge and storm will be a gom type storm, I just think Danny is making the Atlantic for down the road and making it s more favorable in the coming weeks, just my opinion

[blp]

Guys moving it north doesn't mean to much it's going to be some hostile conditions, moves north it will ride that ridge and storm will be a gom type storm, I just think Danny is making the Atlantic for down the road and making it s more favorable in the coming weeks, just my opinion

Land interaction is a big deal IMO. Both GFS and Euro track this right over major land masses while GFDL and HWRF do not thus they allow the low level center to survive and regenerate convection. Despite it getting sheared it will have a vigorous low level circulation which should stay intact for a few days and the one thing that can totally destroy that instantly is land interaction. So the northerly route eliminates one major impediment to regeneration.

[stormlover2013]

I can see that, but condition are still little hostile, I mean I love tracking these things so I hope it doesn't dissipate this gives me stuff to do if u know what I'm saying

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS looks like it holds onto an intact Danny up to 66 hours and then loses it near Puerto Rico. I still think the GFS is too far south with this, especially based on the current motion.

SFT

[Weatherlover12]

Guys moving it north doesn't mean to much it's going to be some hostile conditions, moves north it will ride that ridge and storm will be a gom type storm, I just think Danny is making the Atlantic for down the road and making it s more favorable in the coming weeks, just my opinion

Yes it does, if doesn't move over land than it can have a chance. Land interaction means everything!!! - WeatherLover12

[NCSTORMMAN]

I just have a feeling that the models are going to fail on this one. Intensity wise and path wise. I do not think they are initializing properly.

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=


given his present condition here is the current steering....still aways from rounding the subtropical ridge if he even makes it that far....wall of shear right here...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[SFLcane]

00z models...

[Blown Away]

00z Intensity:

[OuterBanker]

Majority still tightly clustered across islands, but decidedly more north on DR/Haiti. What is interesting is that all outliers are north,not a single one is south. Most surprising is the intensity forecast. Anything past cat 2 is pure fantasy. I am very surprised that the majority keep him alive at least as a tropical storm or better.
JMHO

[jlauderdal]

00z Intensity:

The trend for Danny will be like the Dow this past week

[OuterBanker]

Oops, just realized that the chart is only 120.

[Steve H.]

I actually don't agree. I believe that Danny will live to fight another day. That will be next week.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[OuterBanker]

00z Intensity:

The trend for Danny will be like the Dow this past week

Lol, expecting a crash are we.

I don't know about that.

I certainly wouldn't have invested in Danny earlier this week. He could buck the trends.