ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Soooo lets go with a nice pretty eye by tomorrow afternoon or earlier given the size..

[drewschmaltz]

Thanks for the help. I'm taking the time now to do some research about convective fluctuations in a strengthening storm. Interesting stuff. One more observation - it's growing.

[tropicwatch]

Crashing out be back early to check on recon.

[tolakram]

Here is a different look.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

You can use WV colors with IR, IR colors with WV, both with visible, lots of combinations.

I've always liked this color combo.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir6.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[emeraldislenc]

As people have said all season it just takes one storm
to have a bad damaging season. As someone who lives on the coast of NC this has really caught my attention!

[AutoPenalti]

I went from paying slight attention to oh sh** this is getting climatic in just 3 hours, I'm not convinced just yet this storm is moving away from Florida until Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The aftermath of Ericka has left people pissed off that nothing happened and this hopefully isn't another "boy who cried wolf" incident that could leave millions here unprepared.

[northjaxpro]

As people have said all season it just takes one storm
to have a bad damaging season. As someone who lives on the coast of NC this has really caught my attention!

And it should. The latest GFS runs look absolutely ominous. Stay vigilant and really, I would be taking early prep now if I was up in that area.

[Aric Dunn]

Also would not be surprised to see the nhc go with warnings for bahamas at 2 am ..with a possible upgrade given the current trends and microwave...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Joaquin will be a Category 2 hurricane before recon reaches it at this rate...

[northjaxpro]

Alot of towers going up atm looks to me this system is in a RI phase now.

Yes, I think observing satellite presentation currently, this system may be at around 70-75 kt hurricane atm. No doubt in my mind this is a hurricane now, and a strengthening one at that. This is becoming a very impressive and potentially dangerous tropical cyclone. Big concerns in the immediate short time for the central Bahama islands.

[tolakram]

Dare I say an 'eye like' feature is showing where the new convection is popping up?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[northjaxpro]

Dare I say an 'eye like' feature is showing where the new convection is popping up?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

Yes I noticed that as well tolakram.

[Hurricaneman]

Joaquin will be a Category 2 hurricane before recon reaches it at this rate...

And the eye is seen on visible and IR and based on that I would go 80 to 85mph if not at 2 then at 5

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Aric Dunn]

Dare I say an 'eye like' feature is showing where the new convection is popping up?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

yeah mentioned it earlier as well as the microwave image showing a nearly closed low to mid level eye. the waning convection has revealed it.

[Hammy]

Eastern convection trying to wrap around but seems to weaken once it reaches the western circulation. The upper outflow seems to be taking shape though but I wonder if there might be mid-level shear underneath if the humidity levels aren't the problem.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Mid-Level Shear graphic.

[seussianagenda]

:uarrow: Latest Mid-Level Shear graphic.

Wow, perfect setup for RI

[Blizzard96x]

Alot of towers going up near the core and also in the spiral banding atm looks to me this system is in a RI phase now.

Yeah this thing looks like its about to go full beast mode on visible loop....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: Latest Mid-Level Shear graphic.

looks like a strip of slightly higher shear is causing the CDO to blow off to the east a bit

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Aric Dunn]

Eastern convection trying to wrap around but seems to weaken once it reaches the western circulation. The upper outflow seems to be taking shape though but I wonder if there might be mid-level shear underneath if the humidity levels aren't the problem.

Again Very normal. the initial burst/ hot towers are just leads.. this cycle happens multiple times until a vertically stacked system ( with a certain amount of vertical tilt from low to upper levels) is established. there does not appear to be much left of mid level shear only very high level and decreasing steadily. its current state is classic.