Global model runs discussion

[CFLHurricane]

If memory serves correct , about this time last year the models were showing the African wave train leaving the station, and we all know what happened.

Three invest/TS/Hurricanes in the EPAC and jack squat in the Atlantic.

It's really tough taking two bum seasons back-to-back.

[euro6208]

If memory serves correct , about this time last year the models were showing the African wave train leaving the station, and we all know what happened.

Three invest/TS/Hurricanes in the EPAC and jack squat in the Atlantic.

It's really tough taking two bum seasons back-to-back.

With potentially another inactive season come 2015 as models bullishly has a full grown el nino by April of next year...

Back to Back to Back...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Let's not get well ahead in time. Let's deal with 2014 first as there will be plenty of time to see what will happen in 2015 and beyond. Now we return to the discussion of the models.

[gatorcane]

Models seems to be converging on something forming SW of the Cape Verde islands in about 5-6 days from now. Should see the NHC mark this area up within the next couple of days if these trends continue. Summary below:

The 00Z GFS...132 hours:


The 00Z NAVGEM...132 hours:


The 00Z FIM-9...132 hours:


The 00Z GEM...132 hours:

[Alyono]

GFS seems to have a major trough off of the coast in the long range

Develops a strong hurricane, but it does not even reach Bermuda before recurving

[Hammy]

If memory serves correct , about this time last year the models were showing the African wave train leaving the station, and we all know what happened.

Three invest/TS/Hurricanes in the EPAC and jack squat in the Atlantic.

It's really tough taking two bum seasons back-to-back.

The GFS is showing a decent storm a bit out, and while only time will tell if it actually happens, the GFS has been fairly good at not showing phantom storms this year after the fix of the June issues.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS seems to have a major trough off of the coast in the long range

Develops a strong hurricane, but it does not even reach Bermuda before recurving

Do you buy it? That sharp a trough?

[Hurricaneman]

If memory serves correct , about this time last year the models were showing the African wave train leaving the station, and we all know what happened.

Three invest/TS/Hurricanes in the EPAC and jack squat in the Atlantic.

It's really tough taking two bum seasons back-to-back.

The GFS is showing a decent storm a bit out, and while only time will tell if it actually happens, the GFS has been fairly good at not showing phantom storms this year after the fix of the June issues.

you're right the GFS has been much better even had invest 94L not really becoming a tropical cyclone so based on that there may be more credibility for pouch 018L

[Hurricaneman]

GFS seems to have a major trough off of the coast in the long range

Develops a strong hurricane, but it does not even reach Bermuda before recurving

the one thing I notice with the GFS is that it tends to break down ridges too fast and over amplify troughs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SFLcane]

GFS seems to have a major trough off of the coast in the long range

Develops a strong hurricane, but it does not even reach Bermuda before recurving

Do you buy it? That sharp a trough?

Why not? Its been one after another this yr. Bet says even if it developes will recurve rather quickly.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

GFS seems to have a major trough off of the coast inmodelsong range

Develops a strong hurricane, but it does not even reach Bermuda before recurving

the one thing I notice with the GFS is that it tends to break down ridges too fast and over amplify troughs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not this year. These are unusually strong troughs for this time of year. If anything the models may be underdoing the strength of them.

[blp]

I am seeing some mixed signals on the MJO as we head into the peak of the season. On one end the GFS is very enthusiastic about the MJO and reflects this in the model runs showing development of a CV storm. On the other hand the other models such as the CMC and Euro are not as enthusiastic and continue to show a weak signal. Coincidentally the CMC and Euro are showing very weak development on their model runs.

GFS


ECMWF


CMC

[BigA]

We are talking some 12-14 days out with this trough, to the point that forecast skill for ridges and troughs degrades quite a bit.

The GEFS (GFS ensembles) and GEPS (CMC ensembles), and CPS are showing substantially more ridging than the GFS operational run during this period, with anomalous highs over eastern Canada.

I expect that the operational GFS will continue to flip flop back and forth in the track for the system that it is forecasting to develop in the MDR (if it continues to develop this sytem). We probably won't have a good idea on whether conditions favor a recurve or not until order of 5-7 days from now.

[blp]

We are talking some 12-14 days out with this trough, to the point that forecast skill for ridges and troughs degrades quite a bit.

The GEFS (GFS ensembles) and GEPS (CMC ensembles), and CPS are showing substantially more ridging than the GFS operational run during this period, with anomalous highs over eastern Canada.

I expect that the operational GFS will continue to flip flop back and forth in the track for the system that it is forecasting to develop in the MDR (if it continues to develop this sytem). We probably won't have a good idea on whether conditions favor a recurve or not until order of 5-7 days from now.

Thanks for the insight.

[Alyono]

As I suspected, the GFS dropped the CV storm next week

One storm at most through the remainder of August is the most likely scenario. Earlier, I had thought conditions would be favorable toward the end of the month. I no longer think that will be the case. In fact, it would not be an entire surprise to me if we see no development through all of August (Bertha likely formed in late July), making this only the second time in history

[SFLcane]

lol....amazing.

GFS not intuned with desert out there.

[Hurricane Andrew]

It dropped it for one run. One run. If it still doesn't have it by tomorrow night, then worry.

[SFLcane]

It dropped it for one run. One run. If it still doesn't have it by tomorrow night, then worry.

worry? Again with those well below average sst's and dry air sinking aimass across the eastern tropical atl i don't see any cv wave developing until something changes.

[Hurricane Andrew]

It dropped it for one run. One run. If it still doesn't have it by tomorrow night, then worry.

worry? Again with those well below average sst's and dry air sinking aimass across the eastern tropical atl i don't see any cv wave developing until something changes.

Loop it. Moving away. 018L may catch a break, at least until 40-50W. 014L (94L) is chewing away at the SAL at it's own expense.

[SFLcane]

Na...Sooner or later sal will rap around anything that gets going. Bertha replay

Watch this loop nothing will get going in these conditions. Maybe in a few weeks something will change but it might be to late for cv season time to look close to home before you know it. Wasn't expecting an active cv season anyway or season for that matter.

[imghttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif[/img]