Global model runs discussion

[northjaxpro]

This is way, way out thankfully. But, one thing to take away from these runs by GFS is that there will probably be another trough in the vicinity of the U.S. East Coast within the next 10 days or so.

[gatorcane]

The FIM model is now picking up on WGOM development from something that originates from the SW Caribbean, like the ECMWF is showing. To the east is pouch 023L which is deepens rather quickly in the eastern tropical atlantic.

[Hurricaneman]

The FIM model is now picking up on WGOM development from something that originates from the SW Caribbean, like the ECMWF is showing. To the east is pouch 023L which is deepens rather quickly in the eastern tropical atlantic.

Levi Cowen mentioned something like this could happen in his video yesterday and it wouldn't be a surprise and another thing that says it may be possible is that it has model support

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... bal-exits/

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[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS and CMC are both showing development in the BOC around early next week.

[Rgv20]

Going to be interesting what the ECMWF shows tonight!


0zGFS forecast for Monday Night..


0zGFS Ensembles forecast for Monday Evening show lowering pressures in the SW Gulf/BOC..


0zCMC forecast for Monday Night..

[somethingfunny]

The 00z GFS looks very similar in the Bay of Campeche next week (and the Canadian may have a hurricane as it develops the system before crossing the Yucatan) but what really caught my eye was this final frame before the resolution drops on the GFS -- Look at that moisture plume for Texas!

[HeeBGBz]

There's a stormy area just south of Jamaica. Could that be the beginnings of the storm that's supposed to exit the sw Caribbean into the GOM?

[alienstorm]

In all likelihood it will be ex-97L that comes into that area and adds the energy.

[somethingfunny]

Yeah, up until now it's looked like 97L would track north of the islands and be an East Coast thing, and I'd thought that the Carib/Gulf potential for next week was another wave or a split-off lobe of 97L's. I guess we should slide over to the ex-97L thread with these Gulf storm model runs.

[tropicwatch]

I think the models might be picking up this area just off of Yucatan.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-84&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10

[gatorcane]

Well this would be quite the setup if this verified for Sept 12th - a class early to mid September long tracker Cape Verde system with with a ridge offshore the Carolinas it forms from a wave that moves off Africa around 1 week from now...though we all know how awful the GFS has been in it's long-range genesis forecasts, but you never know if it gets one right eventually:

[Alyono]

GFS recurves that system

However, it does indicate a long range storm striking Texas

[gatorcane]

All the 12Z Global model medium-range guidance (ECMWF/GFS/GEM/NAVGEM) show development of a Cape Verde wave in the Eastern Atlantic around 1 week from now. The cyclone moves west across the MDR in the long-range. Given the strong consensus, it looks like we may finally get something out there. Let's see what future model runs show for this wave.

[Alyono]

hold on

the CMC has it sputtering, the GFS opens it into a wave

That tells me that a strong wave is expected to move off of the coast and then find hostile conditions

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the MJO pattern, could the Indian Ocean be the next area of activity? The NIO has been practically dead in 2014 so far.

[ninel conde]

All the 12Z Global model medium-range guidance (ECMWF/GFS/GEM/NAVGEM) show development of a Cape Verde wave in the Eastern Atlantic around 1 week from now. The cyclone moves west across the MDR in the long-range. Given the strong consensus, it looks like we may finally get something out there. Let's see what future model runs show for this wave.

you sure models show an actual developed cyclone moving west?

[ninel conde]

unless my map reading ability is lacking the euro at 10 days shows absolutely nothing.

[ninel conde]

what the 10 day euro does show finally is strong high pressure in the NW atlantic. IF anything were to miraculously overcome the horribly hostile tropics then the pattern would lend itself to interest.

[Hammy]

unless my map reading ability is lacking the euro at 10 days shows absolutely nothing.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014083112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/f120.gif

model shows a strong depression or storm off of Africa at 120 hours.

[ninel conde]

unless my map reading ability is lacking the euro at 10 days shows absolutely nothing.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014083112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/f120.gif

model shows a strong depression or storm off of Africa at 120 hours.

at day 10 it shows nothing that made it across