Global model runs discussion

[Dean4Storms]

12Z shows Fred hitting South FL yet again, OK its peaking my interest:

If it becomes nothing more than a remnant low it could very well keep westward under ridging. It has my interest as well.

[HURRICANELONNY]

FRANCES OR FRED

[Meso]

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS Run looks rather interesting:

[KUEFC]

gatorcane i only lurk on these boards, but everytime i see a post of yours it always seems to be that your wishing something to hit florida, you looking at a computer model that is forcasting over 2 weeks out, but yet claiming its "interesting"?

[BigA]

gatorcane i only lurk on these boards, but everytime i see a post of yours it always seems to be that your wishing something to hit florida, you looking at a computer model that is forcasting over 2 weeks out, but yet claiming its "interesting"?

I don't think Gatorcane is being overly zealous by declaring the model run to be interesting. I too would find a run interesting if it sent a significant tropical cyclone near my location, and in any case, having read many of Gatorcane's posts this year, I would not peg him/her as as overly eager when it comes to development

In any case, the run is interesting, because it is rare for storms that form after the middle of September to make it all the way across the Atlantic.

[Sanibel]

That seems like another crazy GFS phantom storm. It only moves 600 miles in ten days.

[KUEFC]

I think that is the giveaway Sanibel

[hurricanetrack]

We shall see. Genesis would be in about 72-96 hours according to the GFS. As far as it not moving far in 10 days, maybe overall weak ridging would account for that. We have to remember, as I am sure Luis does, that Georges made it all the way across in 1998 in late September. We shall see. For those of us who really have a passion for this, it is interesting even if it turns out to be a whole lot of nothing. I'll take that over the negative Nancy "nothing will ever develop again" stance that some have year after year. I think it would be a nice name for a long tracker, Grace. So lets check back in around Friday and see what happens.

[BigA]

12Z nogaps also develops a system around the same time frame, but doesn't carry it intact across the Atlantic.

[Stormcenter]

It's getting late in the ball game. IMO it will be hard pressed to get something across the Atlantic now.

[Nederlander]

gatorcane i only lurk on these boards, but everytime i see a post of yours it always seems to be that your wishing something to hit florida, you looking at a computer model that is forcasting over 2 weeks out, but yet claiming its "interesting"?

Its called -removed- and it happens far too often on here...

I'll take that over the negative Nancy "nothing will ever develop again" stance that some have year after year. I think it would be a nice name for a long tracker, Grace. So lets check back in around Friday and see what happens.

I personally would not consider it a 'negative nancy' stance to hope nothing will develop the rest of the season. I think that would be a good thing... more like a positive patsy?

[BigA]

gatorcane i only lurk on these boards, but everytime i see a post of yours it always seems to be that your wishing something to hit florida, you looking at a computer model that is forcasting over 2 weeks out, but yet claiming its "interesting"?

Its called -removed- and it happens far too often on here...

I'll take that over the negative Nancy "nothing will ever develop again" stance that some have year after year. I think it would be a nice name for a long tracker, Grace. So lets check back in around Friday and see what happens.

I personally would not consider it a 'negative nancy' stance to hope nothing will develop the rest of the season. I think that would be a good thing... more like a positive patsy?

No, saying that a model is interesting is not -removed-. At no time did Gatorcane state that he believed that this model would come to fruition. If he had said something to the effect of "I think Florida needs to keep a close eye on this potential system" that could be considered such, but not the simple word "interesting."

And secondly, this is a forum whose reason for existence is tropical cyclone activity. Therefore, it would be absurd for us all to hope that nothing ever developed, as that would invalidate the reason for the forum.

[Nederlander]

No, saying that a model is interesting is not -removed-. At no time did Gatorcane state that he believed that this model would come to fruition. If he had said something to the effect of "I think Florida needs to keep a close eye on this potential system" that could be considered such, but not the simple word "interesting."

And secondly, this is a forum whose reason for existence is tropical cyclone activity. Therefore, it would be absurd for us all to hope that nothing ever developed, as that would invalidate the reason for the forum.

I was not referring to gatorcane's specific post, just stating that it does happen on here. And yes I certainly agree that these things are fascinating to track, especially with the way mother nature throws curveballs. But to some of us, its a relief when hurricane season winds down. With three hurricanes, and a tropical storm in the past four years, it definitely gets old. ok sorry for the OT post...

[BigA]

No worries, Nederlander, I agree 100% with your last post. As someone who does not live on the coast, I have never had the stress of worrying about my house being destroyed.

In any case, back to the models for all of us.

[cycloneye]

UKMET has a brief flare in East Atlantic but is gone rapidly.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Nederlander]

looking at WV, I see a whole lot of dry air out there

[Dean4Storms]

I think it will be hard for any long tracker crossing the Atlantic from here on out. The UL winds are howling across most of the tropical Atlantic basin, not saying it is impossible just going to be hard to come by. If any storm does make it across it will most likely go through many fluctuations in intensity if not nearly killed off like Fred, although I've not written the remains of Fred off just yet!

[KUEFC]

Quick question, where can i find these models? i always have to follow the links from here but what is the best site where i can view them all?

[cycloneye]

Quick question, where can i find these models? i always have to follow the links from here but what is the best site where i can view them all?

CMC
GFS
NOGAPS
GFDL (When there are invests)
HWRF (When there are invests)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Long range GFS
NAM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

ECMWF (EURO)

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/