ATL: DANNY - Models

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM just won't give up on this system. It has shifted more south and sends it just north of the Greater Antilles and into the SE Bahamas. Fortunately it is inferior to the GFS and ECMWF which don't show anything like this:

[WPBWeather]

and then what happens??

[AutoPenalti]

:uarrow: and then what happens??

RI? Maybe?

[tolakram]

0Z GFS running

[tolakram]

Nearly identical to the previous run so far.

[blp]

Why is the GFS initialized at 1003mb. Am I missing something. I ran the 10m Surface Pressure map. Another garbage run why bother.

[bahamaswx]

Why is the GFS initialized at 1003mb. Am I missing something. I ran the 10m Surface Pressure map. Another garbage run why bother.

A poor initialization is unfortunate, but certainly does not equal garbage.

[blp]

Why is the GFS initialized at 1003mb. Am I missing something. I ran the 10m Surface Pressure map. Another garbage run why bother.

A poor initialization is unfortunate, but certainly does not equal garbage.

Your right just a little frustrated. Well well 96 hr has it further north with greater vorticity.

[Hammy]

Why is the GFS initialized at 1003mb. Am I missing something. I ran the 10m Surface Pressure map. Another garbage run why bother.

A poor initialization is unfortunate, but certainly does not equal garbage.

I would say it is, considering it makes the run essentially worthless as that's a significant difference in intensity, which means a significant difference in future track/intensity forecast by the GFS.

[chaser1]

Why is the GFS initialized at 1003mb. Am I missing something. I ran the 10m Surface Pressure map. Another garbage run why bother.

SO, SO TRUE!!!!!! Why even run it?

As far as the GFS is concerned, it's already a shallow little blip, just riding the Easterly trades like a tall sail boat with no one at the wheel. Wow? That thought kinda puts me in the mood for a Bahama Mama & a little bit of Jimmy Buffet!

[blp]

Hugging the coast now at 108hrs. Still has vorticity. One can only wonder if just hair further north and properly initialized.

[floridasun78]

Hugging the coast now at 108hrs. Still has vorticity. One can only wonder if just hair further north and properly initialized.

what Models show that?

[blp]

00z GFS holds onto vorticity longer and finally misses Hispaniola only to get driven into E. Cuba mountains. So continues to move North. Would have loved to have seen proper initialization. The system is so small I think it just cannot resolve it well.

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

the initialization is fine at 1003mb given how small this is. It's a global not a high resolution model.

[Hurricaneman]

The HWRF is too far south in its track as its north of 15N closer to 16N at 50W while the HWRF at that pt is at 14.8N at 50W or a 50nautical mile difference which means alot in path

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[Hurricaneman]

The HWRF at 60hrs seems to be starting to slacken the shear looking at the simulated satellite and Danny sure expands just NE of the lesser antilles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[YoshiMike]

The HWRF at 60hrs seems to be starting to slacken the shear looking at the simulated satellite and Danny sure expands just NE of the lesser antilles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Does this mean you think it has a better chance of surviving than what is anticipated?

[chaser1]

The HWRF at 60hrs seems to be starting to slacken the shear looking at the simulated satellite and Danny sure expands just NE of the lesser antilles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Does this mean you think it has a better chance of surviving than what is anticipated?

Perhaps an example of... "what doesn't kill you, might make you stronger" ("Andrew"? What about Andrew? I NEVER mentioned "him"... musta been someone that yelled out from the cheap seats, LOL)

[chaser1]

By the way, EURO is coming out and up to 96 hr. forecast. It still pretty much kills Danny at landfall along the southern P.R. coast. Only subtle thing I noticed at 96 hr., is that the vorticity associated with the remnants of Danny, have migrated to the north coast of HIspanola. Also, there is a far larger broad system fast approaching the Antilles from the east at that point.