Global model runs discussion

[KUEFC]

Thanks

[jinftl]

Why am I not seeing these howling winds....current shear maps are indicating shear readings very close to climatologic norms overall across the basin.

I think it will be hard for any long tracker crossing the Atlantic from here on out. The UL winds are howling across most of the tropical Atlantic basin, not saying it is impossible just going to be hard to come by. If any storm does make it across it will most likely go through many fluctuations in intensity if not nearly killed off like Fred, although I've not written the remains of Fred off just yet!

[Sanibel]

If nothing develops in the Caribbean that could be it for 2009!

[wxman57]

Why am I not seeing these howling winds....current shear maps are indicating shear readings very close to climatologic norms overall across the basin.

http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/4691/shear091509.png

http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/7756 ... 1509cl.png

Perhaps these shear maps don't do a very good job of focusing on shear where it counts - where the waves are tracking. A look at a WV loop would seem to indicate that conditions across the Caribbean are quite hostile, as well as across much of the MDR. Averaging shear across a large region may not be the best way to determine how hostile the environment is.

[Dean4Storms]

Agree, don't see where comparing an overall average up to now compares to what we are seeing now or applies to the future, take a look at WV imagery!

[Frank2]

If nothing develops in the Caribbean that could be it for 2009!

Even the "best" of seasons often start to wind down about 10 days from now, so that might be true, considering the shear is only going to increase as the Fall progresses...

Just today I noticed the annual "Florida October sky" - it must have to do with the lower sun angle, compared to May through July, so Fall is on it's way...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Here we go with a W Carib system, long-range GFS:

[hurricanetrack]

Liking the looks of that and hope we see some classic October activity. It's been a while. 12Z was showing some junk and the 18Z was certainly more robust but waaaaay out there. We could have anything ranging from a hurricane in the Caribbean/Gulf to a cold snap and sweeping front deep in to the tropics but with the recent SOI trending way up from where it has been and the very warm virgin water, I still think we will not get out of the season without a hurricane hitting the U.S. and it is my opinion that it will come from the western Caribbean or close by.

[Stormcenter]

you got to love the GFS.

[Steve H.]

12Z NOGAPS put a strong Low in the BoC at t=180. Just for kicks..


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=180

[Agua]

This is funny: storm2K reduced to tracking long range GFS runs.

[BigA]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=180

Not quite that far out. NOGAPS closes off the low 3 to 4 days from now near Honduras.

The FSU MM5 appears to show the same system (though I think this model develops a low in the southern gulf in a lot of runs).

GFS sort of shows something there, nothing really organized but a bit of a low.

[DanKellFla]

This is funny: storm2K reduced to tracking long range GFS runs.

See: "Flat-line" thread.

[BigA]

Looks like in the next 11-15 days the MJO in the Atlantic/Carib/GOM will transfer away from suppressive, probably to neutral, but possibly to supporting convection. Perhaps combined with the high SOI values (which should mean less strong westerlies, I think), something will happen in the W-Carib the first week of October.

[BigA]

For what its worth, also, the WRF looks like its in accordance with the NOGAPS and MM5 FSU on some sort of low pressure in the BOC in the time frame of a few to several days.

[wobblehead]

I wouldn't be surprised if a system does generate in this area.

[Macrocane]

Looks like in the next 11-15 days the MJO in the Atlantic/Carib/GOM will transfer away from suppressive, probably to neutral, but possibly to supporting convection. Perhaps combined with the high SOI values (which should mean less strong westerlies, I think), something will happen in the W-Carib the first week of October.

I think that the pattern maybe already changing I don't know if it will propagate eastwards but here in El Salvador since 7 to 8 days ago we've had average or a little above average rainfall. Before that July and August were below average.

[Derek Ortt]

just because the SOI is temporarily positive, does not mean the westerlies will immediately relax

[Macrocane]

Look what the Euro has in 144-168 hours, I think it is a phantom storm but let's see if it is consistent and other models support it and we may have a player.

Euro 168

[tolakram]

I've never been a season over predictor, but it looks like winter in the tropics.