Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Nothing on the horizon on the long (GFS) or medium range models(EURO,CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET) about Tropical Development in the Atlantic or EPAC in the next couple of weeks.GFS if you recall ten days ago had a pretty strong system in the Western Caribbean,but since that time,it does not show anything more in that area for now (Maybe testing the model?).My guess is when the next pulse of the MJO arrives in the EPAC and Atlantic in mid June,the models may start to show something.

Even if this does not form, I think this is would be a good time for the NHC to run one of their test invests that they do every year or so.

They ran a test invest 86L a few days ago.See the link to thread about it below.

viewtopic.php?f=68&p=1876928#p1876928

[boca]

I'm looking at the long range models wishing something would develop to help with our drought here in Florida.In Mt Dora in Central Florida the lakes are so low we couldn't go out in my sister's boat while I was up there last weekend.

[cycloneye]

I haved noticed in recent runs of NOGAPS,UKMET,GFS and CMC that they show a non-tropical low in the North Central Atlantic.The thing to watch is first more runs showing it and if that low appears,if it turns at some point subtropical.But if you ask me for odds,I give it a 2% chance.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Evil Jeremy]

Even if this does not form, I think this is would be a good time for the NHC to run one of their test invests that they do every year or so.

That was me, I called it lol.

[meteorologyman]

This may seem like a silly question.....
How do these test invests work exactly, and what is it that they are testing on?

[Evil Jeremy]

Fro what I understand meteorologyman, the NHC runs these test invests before some season begins I believe to test the models and other systems for the upcoming season, but I am sure there are more reasons.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 12Z GFS is at it again, developing some kind of weak low in the Eastern GOM and shunting it ENE head of a frontal boundary (only about 7 days away so this would be medium range with a higher chance of happening).

If this verifies, it would bring alot of much needed rain to the entire peninsula of FL. Even so, the GFS is suggesting that the long-wave patten is going to change in about 7 days or so, with a large trough along the Eastern CONUS. That will bring much need rain to FL and should commence the start of the rainy season.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF shows a weak low SW of Fla Penninsula same as GFS in the timeframe,but is over 144 hours and I haved stated my thinking about runs above 144 hours.However,if that pans out as gatorcane says in above post,it would be a good thing to see rain pour there.

By the way,the EURO also has the Non-Tropical Low that the other models (UKMET,NOGAPS,GFS and CMC) continue to show below 144 hours in the North-Central Atlantic.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Recurve]

KW weather discussion mentions a disturbance forming between Cuba and the Bahamas and moving toward Florida. Let's hope that kicks off the rainy season with a good soaking for south Florida. Dade and Monroe counties just went to stricter watering restrictions, yard watering allowed only 1 day a week.

[gatorcane]

KW weather discussion mentions a disturbance forming between Cuba and the Bahamas and moving toward Florida. Let's hope that kicks off the rainy season with a good soaking for south Florida. Dade and Monroe counties just went to stricter watering restrictions, yard watering allowed only 1 day a week.

Do you have a link to the discussion on this disturbance?

[Canelaw99]

KW weather discussion mentions a disturbance forming between Cuba and the Bahamas and moving toward Florida. Let's hope that kicks off the rainy season with a good soaking for south Florida. Dade and Monroe counties just went to stricter watering restrictions, yard watering allowed only 1 day a week.

I guess I hadn't heard about this since we have Homestead water, but I'm posting the updated restrictions for anyone who might run across this thread...from: http://www.miamidade.gov/wasd/

Water Restrictions for Miami-Dade
Outdoor watering restrictions are now permanent in Miami-Dade County.

Residents with odd-numbered addresses may irrigate lawns and landscapes on Wednesdays and Saturdays from 12 a.m. to 10 a.m. and / or 4 p.m. to 11:59 p.m.
Residents with even-numbered addresses may irrigate lawns and landscapes on Thursdays and Sundays from 12 a.m. to 10 a.m. and / or 4 p.m. to 11:59 p.m.
In May, 2009, one-day-a-week restrictions were enacted for all homes and businesses south of Southwest 216th Street to the Florida Keys. Residents with odd-numbered addresses may only irrigate on Saturdays. Residents with even-numbered addresses may only irrigate on Sundays. The same watering hours apply.
Hand-watering with one hose and an automatic shut-off nozzle is allowed for 10 minutes per day for landscape stress relief and to prevent plant die-off.
Newly-planted landscaping can be watered every day for the first 90 days during the hours listed above.

[StormTracker]

Yeah, I'm almost right on the borderline(209th Terrace)! I guess I lucked out and still get 2 days of watering(for now), come on rainy season! I guess I better go find my Lake O' thread from last season and fire it up again!

[gatorcane]

The low is back again in the 12Z GFS now only 7 days out. This would be a true blessing for those in FL with all of that rainfall.

[cycloneye]

12z Canadian also has the Florida Penninsula low in 144 hours.And yes,that Non-Tropical Low continues to appear in the North-Central Atlantic by this model and GFS,NOGAPS,UKMET and EURO.

[gatorcane]

Cycloneye, thanks for posting that model run. It appears we will have some things to talk about next week with both of these lows.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF now develops a weak low in the BOC and moves it NE into the Panhandle of FL. There are now three models on board with some kind of weak low in the Gulf heading to Florida...they each differ on the details. This could be an upper-level low riding along the trough. All three models bring much need rain to the FL peninsula next week with the ECWMF farthest north on the low and the CMC the farthest south.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9051212!!/

[Meso]

Very interesting, the GFS continuing to show something Florida way and now only 6 days out. Wouldn't be surprised if this verifies.

[gatorcane]

Meso, the 06Z GFS seems a bit screwy. It drives what looks to be a tropical storm through Southern FL but then once it reaches the Atlantic side, moves it slowly west...and keeps it in the Eastern GOM near Florida for like 5 days. I posted a graphic of the 06Z with that storm over Florida.

The more likely scenario (depicted by 00Z GFS and runs prior) is a weak low that moves SW to NE across FL ahead of a short-wave diving down into the Eastern CONUS..and out into the Atlantic...but bringing some much needed rain for most of FL next week:

I can say pretty confidently, the rain chances across FL next week (Tues. - Thu.) may be over 50%. I do see the rain event for FL but not the tropical system.

[boca]

The NWS in Miami makes no mention of this low other than saying that will have pops thru early next week.I think by Thurs/Fri if the GFS is still showing this within 5 or 6 days they will make mention of it.

SO FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL POPS WHICH IS GOOD SINCE WE NEED THE RAIN SO BAD. SOMEWHAT
COOLER HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A BIT COOLER ATMOSPHERIC AIR,
CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL. SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT AGAIN, SO THE HWO
HAS A SLIGHT CHC OF ATLANTIC WATERSPOUTS, DIME SIZE HAIL AND TSTM
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SINCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY AND WE
DID GET DAMAGE REPORTS YESTERDAY, THIS FCST LOOKS GOOD.

[cycloneye]

The conservative UKMET is a bit more bullish with the North-Central Atlantic Low.