WPAC: MEKKHALA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

01W MEKKHALA 150114 1200 11.0N 137.2E WPAC 30 1000

Still a depression...

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 141208

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NE OF YAP)

B. 14/1132Z

C. 11.00N

D. 137.18E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/0734Z 10.37N 138.27E MMHS
14/0851Z 10.63N 137.52E WIND


SCHALIN




TXPQ22 KNES 140915
TCSWNP

A. 01W (MEKKHALA)

B. 14/0832Z

C. 10.5N

D. 138.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...01W CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH LLCC DISPLACED TO SE OF
DEEP CONVECTION. NEW FLAREUP IN 0832Z IMAGE IS JUST TO NE OF CENTER. TIGHT
CIRCULAR LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES LESS THAN 75NMI FROM LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION GIVES DT=2.0. MET=1.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
TREND. PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/0415Z 10.4N 138.9E AMSU


...RUMINSKI

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JAN 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 10:48:09 N Lon : 137:23:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1006.0mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.1 2.1

Center Temp : -5.2C Cloud Region Temp : -37.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 11:00:00 N Lon: 137:22:48 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.5 degrees

[euro6208]

Just by looking at this, it looks like a strengthening storm with it's LLC under the center canopy but lo and behold.

JMA's and JTWC's position are both almost perfect center fix in black circle southeast of where this eye feature is at...Could both be mistaken?

11.0N 137.2E JTWC
11.0N 137.3E JMA

[ManilaTC]

EYE-FEATURE?

No offense, but that is such a delusional statement.

No offence but your a fool.

xtyphooncyclonex and spiral, watch your language.
We encourage discussion but no derogatory statements please.
This is your first warning.

[ohno]

Great Mystery's of the universe.

Photoshopped...

[euro6208]

Great Mystery's of the universe.

Photoshopped...

LOL!

[ejeraldmc]

lol Im chuckling reading this discussion

[euro6208]

Quite favorable...

[wxman57]

Checking the microwave loop, the center wasn't even beneath the convection in those satellite images posted above. There is a small cool spot on a few images overnight. That's not an eye feature. The center is near the southern end of that "pink" shaded area.

[ohno]

01W MEKKHALA 150114 1200 11.0N 137.2E WPAC 30 1000

Still a depression...

Possible 40kts warning after this...

[euro6208]

Will recon return this season after being absent since 1987 or anytime in the future?

I wish

[wxman57]

RapidSCAT from 03Z has plenty of 35kt winds. It looks better-organized on satellite now, possibly 40-45kt winds. Definitely not a depression according to wind satellite measurements (not Dvorak estimates).

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (MEKKHALA)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
105 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141003Z F-
18 IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM, WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD MEKKHALA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OUTFLOW. TD 01W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SMALL BREAK IN THE STR AS A MINOR TROUGH
PASSES OVER NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA BY TAU 36. AS THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO REBUILD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST BEFORE BEGINNING A BROAD RE-CURVE THROUGH TAU 72. THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY LIMIT OVERALL INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD MEKKHALA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SLIGHT
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, RE-CURVING SLIGHTLY INTO A BREAK IN THE
STR. AS THE SYSTEM SKIRTS THE COAST OF CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT DECAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN VWS CAUSED BY THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE
MODEL TRACK, WITH AN AGGRESSIVE RE-CURVE, FAVORED BY THE NCEP AND UK
MODELS AND A WIDER TURN, AS SHOWN BY NAVGEM, JMA AND ECMWF MODELS.
DUE TO THE WEAK STATE OF THIS SYSTEM, THE SLOWER RE-CURVE SCENARIO
SEEMS MORE LIKELY, AS OPPOSED TO STEERING INTO THE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE. DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

The bigger question IMO is where it will go...

[wxman57]

There is a 50 knot flag in that wind field you posted.

It's colored black for being rain-contaminated. Can't use it.

[dexterlabio]

Actually the 18z GFS is more in line with the Euro/NAVGEM solutions...it recurves the system near southern Luzon and dissipates, probably because of land interaction.

[euro6208]

01W MEKKHALA 150115 0000 11.7N 134.4E WPAC 35 996

First tropical storm of 2015!

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JAN 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 11:41:42 N Lon : 134:08:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1002.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.9 3.3

Center Temp : -67.1C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.6 degrees

Latest:

20150114 2032 11.4 -135.1 T2.0/2.5 01W MEKKHALA
20150114 1432 11.3 -136.2 T2.5/2.5 01W MEKKHALA

[dexterlabio]

^pro mets maybe are on vacation since it's winter.




Area of deep convection may have shrunk as of now but I think it's gotten a more organized structure. Building up a central convection won't take too long now IMO.