WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 091538
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
200 AM CHST SUN MAY 10 2015

...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN MOVING AWAY FROM KOSRAE...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE OCCURRING
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP AND MOKIL IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO
73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF FANANU IN CHUUK STATE...AND IN THE MARIANAS SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...5.5N 162.0E

ABOUT 70 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 1295 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.0 EAST. DOLPHIN IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH SLOWLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
THIS TRACK TAKES DOLPHIN CLOSE TO PINGELAP LATE THIS MORNING...NEAR
MOKIL TONIGHT...AND ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...DOLPHIN IS FORECAST TO TURN TO A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT TAKES IT WELL NORTH OF CHUUK ON WEDNESDAY
AND IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF GUAM ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
DOLPHIN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 65 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

Observations from Pohnpei.

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/PTPN.html

[cycloneye]

TS 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 9 May 2015
<Analyses at 09/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N6°20'(6.3°)
E161°50'(161.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°00'(8.0°)
E159°35'(159.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°25'(9.4°)
E158°00'(158.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10'(10.2°)
E155°25'(155.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[euro6208]

Peak at 890 mb...

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091536Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND CURRENT
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 29 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 07W CONTINUES TO
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH BUILDS IN TO ASSUME STEERING.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
BUILDING STR ASSUMES STEERING. UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS CAUSING
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT
WITH DECREASING VWS AND AN INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL
LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS DOLPHIN WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPEED
DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

will Dolphin become the larger version of Noul? extra huge systems find it hard to organize into a really intense howlers but we'll see with this one...

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 092318Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30 TO 35 KNOT CIRCULATION
WITH A FEW 40 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES, 092318Z ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS CURRENT STRUCTURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
29 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 07W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE, ALLOWING TS 07
TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AND REASSUME
THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BY TAU 60. UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
LEADING TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING VWS AND AN INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS DOLPHIN WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Dolphin is still having a hard time organizing as shear is present.



WDPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM
EAST OF POHNPEI HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO
THE WEST. A 100548Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER ILLUSTRATES
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
SUPPORTS THE POOR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
TS 07W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL TURN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE
STEERING STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL REBUILD AND TURN TS 07W
BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS LEADING TO A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT,
WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS) AND AN INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED INTENSIFICATION RATE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS DOLPHIN WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE STEERING STR TO WEAKEN AGAIN, ALLOWING TS 07W
TO TURN POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND OVERALL SPEED, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 100902
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 PM CHST SUN MAY 10 2015

...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF MOKIL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP AND MOKIL IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING.

RESIDENTS OF FANANU IN CHUUK STATE AND RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS
SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.3N 159.8E

ABOUT 95 MILES NORTHWEST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF MOKIL
ABOUT 115 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 260 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 540 MILES EAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 1105 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 7.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.8
EAST. DOLPHIN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK TOOK
DOLPHIN CLOSE TO PINGELAP THIS MORNING AND NEAR MOKIL AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE IT ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY NIGHT...DOLPHIN IS FORECAST TO TURN
TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT TAKES IT WELL NORTH OF CHUUK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF GUAM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 100956
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (07W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN MAY 10 2015

...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF MOKIL...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON PINGELAP...MOKIL...PAKIN AND POHNPEI IN POHNPEI
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING...AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP AND MOKIL
IN POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS OF 34 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.3N 159.8E

ABOUT 95 MILES NORTHWEST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF MOKIL
ABOUT 115 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF PAKIN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS PASSING NEAR
MOKLI THIS EVENING. IT WILL PASS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF
POHNPEI EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE FUTURE
TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN SO THAT
WINDS...SEAS AND OTHER STORM EFFECTS FOR EACH ISLAND COULD CHANGE.

...PINGELAP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMAIN IN YOUR SHELTER UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON
PINGELAP. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUST TO 45 MPH WILL
DECREASE 20 TO 30 MPH BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND
SHOULD FALL TO 8 TO 11 FEET MONDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

...MOKIL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMAIN IN YOUR SHELTER UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUST
TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW TROPICAL
STORM FORCE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AND DECREASE FURTHER TO 20
TO 30 MPH BY NOON MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 13 TO 18 FEET OR MORE ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...PRODUCING
DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 16 FEET. THIS CAN PRODUCE COASTAL INUNDATION OF
2 TO 3 FEET AT HIGH TIDE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND
SHOULD FALL TO 8 TO 11 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

...POHNPEI AND PAKIN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AND PLENTY OF
GASOLINE FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. A DIP TOWARD THE SOUTH IN THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH
AROUND NOON MONDAY THEN DIMINISH FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 14 TO 18 FEET ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF OF 13 TO 16 FEET. SURF
WILL BE HAZARDOUS MAINLY ON EAST...NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS. THIS
WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET ON WINDWARD COASTS. A PROLONGED
NORTH WIND WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN SOKEHS BAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI INDICATE MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS BEEN RECORDED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 AM CHST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

CMC goes more south and peak...




EURO same and peak




GFS south of Guam and peak of 896 mb...

[euro6208]

Pohnpei International Airport reporting 1006 mb and winds coming out from the west at 14 mph gusting to 35 mph...

NWS Office Pohnpei reporting southwest winds of 23 mph gusting to 28 mph and a pressure of 1008 mb. Had a wind gust of 43 mph in the last hour...

[cycloneye]

Uo to 40kts.

07W DOLPHIN 150510 1200 7.6N 160.0E WPAC 40 993

[cycloneye]

JTWC 15:00 UTC warning on Tropical Storm Dolphin at 40kts.Shear continues to affect the storm and will continue to do so for another 48 hours.After that shear relaxes and Dolphin will intensify more rapidly.



WDPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 101021Z MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED AND
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED
CONVECTIVE BANDING SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 101022Z SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE WITH 40 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL, WITH TS DOLPHIN UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WHICH IS PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM BUILDING OVER THE LLCC. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN
THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH CAUSING THE BREAK IN
THE STEERING STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL REBUILD AND TURN TS 07W
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS LEADING TO A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT,
WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS) AND AN INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED INTENSIFICATION RATE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS DOLPHIN WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE STEERING STR TO WEAKEN AGAIN, ALLOWING TS 07W TO TURN
SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK AND OVERALL SPEED, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 101628Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
WESTWARD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
101451Z GCOM AND 101628Z SSMI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN OLDER 101124Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 TO 40
KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 45 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH EASTERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH CAUSING THE BREAK IN
THE STEERING STR. AFTERWARD, THE STR WILL REBUILD AND TURN TS 07W ON
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS LEADING TO A MODEST INTENSIFICATION.
BEYOND TAU 48, AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS (05 TO 10
KNOTS) AND AN INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED INTENSIFICATION RATE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS DOLPHIN WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE STEERING STR TO WEAKEN AGAIN, ALLOWING TS 07W TO TURN
SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK AND OVERALL SPEED, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
820 AM CHST MON MAY 11 2015

GUZ001>004-111400-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
820 AM CHST MON MAY 11 2015

...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (07W) LIKELY TO APPROACH THE MARIANAS...

AT 700 AM CHST THIS MORNING...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN WAS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 159.7 DEGREES EAST...ABOUT 1065 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 155 MILES NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. TROPICAL
STORM DOLPHIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST...THEN WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE MARIANAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY AS A TYPHOON.

SINCE THIS TROPICAL STORM IS STILL DEVELOPING...THE EXACT TRACK AND
INTENSITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN. RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS
SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THE PROGRESS OF DOLPHIN BY FOLLOWING THE
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SURVICE ON GUAM.
THESE ADVISORIES AND ASSOCIATED GRAPHICS ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM
WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/CYCLONE.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

TS 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 11 May 2015
<Analyses at 11/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°20'(9.3°)
E160°00'(160.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW330km(180NM)
SE220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 12/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10'(10.2°)
E158°00'(158.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10'(10.2°)
E153°50'(153.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°35'(10.6°)
E148°20'(148.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E142°30'(142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N13°50'(13.8°)
E137°30'(137.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC 03:00 UTC warning at 40kts.



WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 102257Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY-DISPLACED WESTWARD. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, AFOREMENTIONED METOP-A IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 102232Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT CIRCULATION AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN
THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE EXTENDED
TRACK FORECAST HAS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DUE TO A CHANGE IN
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. SEE PARA C FOR DETAILS.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 06 HOURS
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH CAUSING THE BREAK IN
THE STEERING STR. AFTERWARD, THE STR WILL REBUILD AND TURN TS 07W ON
A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS LEADING TO A MODEST INTENSIFICATION.
BEYOND TAU 48, AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS (05 TO 10
KNOTS) AND AN INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED INTENSIFICATION RATE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS DOLPHIN WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 96, ANOTHER APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE STEERING STR TO WEAKEN AGAIN,
ALLOWING TS 07W TO TURN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE
STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SUPPORT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, BUT OVERALL REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK DUE TO A BUILDING AFOREMENTIONED STR.
THEREFORE, THE EXTENDED JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS POSITIONED SOUTHWARD
TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
INTENSITY, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Dolphin will go through gradual strengthening as it is trying its best to circulate all its convection around its center. With advantageous conditions for major intensification after 72 hours from now, it could be a significant typhoon later this week. Therefore, it could be one to watch closely.



Analysis on Dolphin and other systems: http://goo.gl/dICl4q

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
WEST OF UJELANG HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
110536Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN
THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL TURN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 06 HOURS AS THE
STEERING STR REBUILDS TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS; HOWEVER, VWS IMPACTS WILL
DECREASE AS THE STORM MOTION MOVES IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS VECTOR.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, WITH REDUCED VWS (05 TO 10 KNOTS) AND AN
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
INTENSIFICATION RATE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS DOLPHIN WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 96, ANOTHER APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE STEERING STR TO WEAKEN AGAIN,
ALLOWING TS 07W TO TURN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SUPPORT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STABILIZED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS WARNING, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 110927
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 PM CHST MON MAY 11 2015

...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN CONTINUING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

RESIDENTS OF FANANU IN CHUUK STATE AND RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS
SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 159.7E

ABOUT 235 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 560 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 1040 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAMM AYDLETT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.7 EAST. DOLPHIN
IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT...DOLPHIN WILL
CONTINUE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT TAKES IT WELL NORTH
OF CHUUK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION
OF GUAM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A TYPHOON ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER...AND UP TO 100 MILES ELSEWHERE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER WILL BE
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 110808
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (07W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 PM CHST MON MAY 11 2015

...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN CONTINUING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON PAKIN ATOLL AND POHNPEI ISLAND IN POHNPEI STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 159.9E

ABOUT 230 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 235 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAKIN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM POHNPEI AND PAKIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE CEASED ACROSS POHNPEI AND PAKIN.

&&

...POHNPEI AND PAKIN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...DECREASING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON TUESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 14
FEET ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUBSIDING
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BELOW HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
SHOWER COVERAGE IS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THERE WILL BE NO MORE REGULARLY SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POHNPEI STATE.
RESIDENTS OF CHUUK STATE AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN IN CASE
FUTURE TROPICAL STORM OR TYPHOON WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY.

$$

R EDSON