EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2015 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 11:38:11 N Lon : 112:33:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.0mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.6 4.1

Center Temp : -49.6C Cloud Region Temp : -61.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.3 degrees

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Andres is probably approaching hurricane status at this point. Assuming dry air doesn't disrupt the storm, it should be declared a Cat 1 at 3z.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Personally, I think the NHC's is a little bit bearish. Maybe 100-105 kts will do, but I think it would go higher.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Andres looks very impressive and if things go well it should be able to become a Hurricane in the next advisory or so. In the image below, you can see the banding core features its developing. We shall see how well it manages the situation.



Synopsis for Andres and other systems: http://goo.gl/UowqVv

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2015 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 11:44:58 N Lon : 112:45:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.3mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 4.1

Center Temp : -36.8C Cloud Region Temp : -59.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.2 degrees

[Kingarabian]

Also worth pointing out that dry air appears to be getting in the core. Could slow RI for an hour or so.

Certainly, but usually when we see dry air intrusion you would see a "crack" within the deep convection. This thing seems to be wrapping and becoming warmer; typically seen when an eye is trying to form.

Doesn't look like much I agree, but you can def see it on satellite imagery. Has that CATL look.

Confirms the eye.

[Yellow Evan]

I know I'm being bullish here, but honestly think it might have a small shot at upper end Cat 4, and maybe just maybe a Cat 5. Best IMO to at least give it a shot.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS also has this lasting quite a while as it heads W, not over the sharp SST gradient of the California Current. Maybe it can do what many storms in this area do, and become annular.

[Kingarabian]

Once ADT switches its scenery type then the numbers should rise.

[Yellow Evan]

Once ADT switches its scenery type then the numbers should rise.

Yea. And by this time tomorrow, should be ready for an eye scene.

[Yellow Evan]

Once ADT switches its scenery type then the numbers should rise.

Yea. And by this time tomorrow, should be ready for an eye scene.

More like right now



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 11:47:18 N Lon : 112:49:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 996.0mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.9 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : -20.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.2 degrees

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts.

EP, 01, 2015052900, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1130W, 55, 997, TS

[Yellow Evan]

Only 55? Then again, Dvorak constraints limiting evidence for hurricane status.

[Yellow Evan]

28/2330 UTC 11.6N 113.1W T3.0/3.0 ANDRES -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

CMISS AMSU pass from this morning:

EP, 01, 201505281257, 30, AMSU, IP, , 1218N, 11094W, , 2, 58, 2, 993, 2, MEAS, , , , , , , , , , , , 56, , E, CIMS, , , , , , , , 993, , NOAA18, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

[CrazyC83]

Agreed that this is intensifying faster than Dvorak constraints allow. Given the passes earlier today and the structure, I would probably call it a hurricane at 00Z personally.

I'd have set the intensity at:

27/0000: 30 kt, Genesis
27/0600: 35 kt
27/1200: 50 kt (based on RapidScat pass)
27/1800: 60 kt (based on ASCAT pass and low resolution)
28/0000: 65 kt

[Yellow Evan]

Burst of deep convecting covering the eye feature.

[Kingarabian]

I think the NHC goes with a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

They updated upwards to 60kts.

EP, 01, 2015052900, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1130W, 60, 997, TS

[Yellow Evan]

There is defently a grey area with dvorak intensity estimate's with systems up to 64 knots recon has shown many times over in the atl I think this system was under estimated from the getgo .

Maybe RapidScat was right after all? AMSU pretty much backed it up later.