EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

wow very impressive looking at the IR loops...looks like she will be a formidable hurricane when all is said and done.

[Yellow Evan]

Wonder if thi storm could go beyond 140 knots.

[Cyclenall]

At this point, I'd be surprised if it doesn't reach at least 130 knots.

Agreed, the forecast should show 135 knots peak at this point and then as this thing explodes notch it up from there.

But different from Andres that had ample open waters to do what he did,Blanca doesn't have that kind of window,unless it does a great RI like a Ivan or Wilma type.

Which Ivan are you referring to? Hurricane Ivan in 2004 didn't have anything crazy RI wise that I remember reading and if it did, doesn't compare to 100 other tropical bombs.

Very cold cloud tops there. Will not be surprised to see RI from this system especially after Andres moves away.

I would be surprised if its anything less than explosive intensification, looking at the state of its condition today I rarely see a TS this primed to just blow like there is no tomorrow. Its difficult to describe, but it has a type of appearance that shows something insane is coming; I can say there is this turning feature over the storm showing.

Wonder if thi storm could go beyond 140 knots.

This may sound overly bullish, but this could be similar in intensity as Hurricane Rick '09 if things line up properly. However I think it will be a pinhole eye instead of the larger one for Rick.

[cycloneye]

I thought they would go higher.

EP, 02, 2015060118, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1039W, 40, 1003, TS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I thought they would go higher.

EP, 02, 2015060118, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1039W, 40, 1003, TS

I can see why, Blanca's convection is intense but it still needs to tighten up its structure a bit. She's already working with a ton of moisture, that combined with low shear and very warm SSTs will make Blanca become a powerful hurricane.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Absolutely insane RI indices from the 18z SHIPS:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 11.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 90% is 14.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 89% is 20.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

89% probs for a 40 kt RI is extraordinary.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

Blanca continues to gradually organize, and satellite imagery shows
a developing CDO and numerous banding features. The initial
intensity has been raised to 40 kt based on a recent ASCAT-B
pass and a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
Steady if not rapid intensification is expected during the next
couple of days while the shear is forecast to decrease over the
cyclone. In fact the SHIPS RI index has the highest probabilities
that I've seen, including an almost 90 percent chance of a 40-kt
increase in 24 hours. However, the regional hurricane models
continue to be much less bullish. The NHC official forecast
continues to be closest to the SHIPS model and shows Blanca becoming
a hurricane on Tuesday and nearing major hurricane intensity in 48
hours. It is possible that the rate of intensification could be even
faster than indicated here. Some weakening is expected by day 5 as
the cyclone begins to encounter cooler waters accompanied by an
increase in shear.

Blanca may have drifted a bit eastward over the past few hours, but
the initial motion estimate is stationary. Little net motion is
forecast during the next 72 hours while the steering currents remain
weak. At days 4 and 5 a northwestward track is expected to begin as
a ridge builds to the northeast of Blanca over northern Mexico. The
latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one during the
first 72 hours and has been adjusted eastward at days 4-5 following
the trend of the latest multi-model consensus.

Blanca is expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico through the forecast period. However, some rainbands on
the outer periphery of the circulation could affect portions of the
coast during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.3N 103.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.4N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.1N 104.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 12.8N 104.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 13.2N 105.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 19.0N 109.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Ntxw]

Wow at those numbers. Blanca is going to escalate quickly it seem.

[Yellow Evan]

The storm has that look to it in terms of very cold cloud tops. Reminds me of Pam.

[gatorcane]

This storm looks like a monster in the making. Wow can the EPAC crank out some serious storms!

Andres and Blanca:

[TheStormExpert]

What a HUGE difference one side of Mexico can make to the other. Here in the Atlantic we struggle these days to even squeeze out a Tropical Depression.

But, over in the East Pacific you can have several Majors in a row!

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 13:18:20 N Lon : 103:55:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 991.6mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.1 4.1

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 13:18:36 N Lon : 103:56:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.3mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.1 4.1

Center Temp : -69.7C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Blanca is steadily organized, with perhaps the start of an inner core on the latest microwave pass. Intensification should be steady until we see the core established.

[Yellow Evan]

Once the core forms though, this will take off.

[cycloneye]

EP, 02, 2015060200, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1040W, 45, 1001, TS

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 0z SHIPS brings Blanca to 118 knots, and the 0z LGEM intensifies the cyclone to 124 knots. An exceptionally favorable environment should yield a very powerful hurricane.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 66 75 93 109 113 118 114 111 98 81
V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 66 75 93 109 113 118 114 111 98 81
V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 56 61 66 79 98 116 124 123 112 94 75
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 4 3 5 4 10 15 17 16 18 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -5 -5 4 9 8 6 6 4
SHEAR DIR 291 312 319 4 355 59 148 109 82 99 95 111 106
SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 28.8 27.4 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 164 164 163 163 165 166 165 153 137 127
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 7
700-500 MB RH 87 85 85 85 84 85 81 77 75 73 70 66 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 20 21 22 25 29 34 36 40 39 39 34 29
850 MB ENV VOR -13 -10 -1 12 22 41 56 65 77 60 64 55 79
200 MB DIV 148 141 124 115 110 108 128 110 99 93 59 5 0
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 -1 -1 -1 0 3 -5
LAND (KM) 548 552 557 570 584 612 640 626 567 503 445 434 403
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.7 13.5 14.9 16.8 18.3 19.3
LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.2 104.3 104.4 104.5 104.7 104.6 104.8 105.3 106.5 108.2 109.2 109.5
STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 3 7 11 11 7 5
HEAT CONTENT 96 97 99 100 100 99 101 98 91 51 13 1 9

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ27 KNES 020011
TCSENP

A. 02E (BLANCA)

B. 01/2345Z

C. 13.6N

D. 104.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULATION CENTER A LITTLE HARD TO FIND DUE TO BURSTING
CELL. DT=2.5+ BASED ON 5.5/10 BANDING. MET AND PAT ALSO 2.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[cycloneye]

The models have shifted to the right making landfall at Cabo but it will be weaker as it moves thru that area.