ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Time to call it quits with the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season guys! It was an interesting one to say the least.

[Steve]

Agree srain. We will have to see what happens with 97 and 92, but depending on how far south and west the massive upper ridge is relative to what appears to eventually be upper energy from 97 interacting with whatever is coming up from 92 and whether it's inland, coastal or offshore. Could be rains farther south only or could be some multiple tropical origin convergence farther up the TX Coast.

[NDG]

IMO I just do not even see much rain moving up into Texas with this

GFS and Euro are still persistent in that the UL trough over the SW US will pull all that moisture into TX next week & parts of LA, at least 3-5" for coastal TX starting Wed-Thurs time frame into the weekend and possibly into the following week.

[Ntxw]

Shear is extreme in the gulf. ULL to the west of Texas will kick up even more of it. It is a good pattern to draw up tropical moisture into the state and even enhanced baroclinic processes. Organization for 92L will face a lot of that shear, and even then it contends with land. Good set up though for much needed rain in the flash drought areas.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located inland over southeastern Mexico
just west of Villahermosa is producing disorganized showers and a
few thunderstorms, primarily across portions of the Bay of Campeche.
This system is moving slowly westward to west-northwestward, and
development is unlikely since the low is no longer expected to
emerge over water. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon has been
canceled. This system could still produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula
during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[NDG]

Next!!! The only thing is that we may have to wait until next year, lol.

[Sanibel]

There might be a second Low forming over Yucatan.

[Nimbus]

There might be a second Low forming over Yucatan.

Tropical energy usually doesn't Fujiwara until after a circulation develops.

If it did there could be a second flare up in the BOC round about midnight..

[cycloneye]

There is a thread about the topic of if the season ended question so members can go there to express their opinions about that.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117623&hilit=&p=2487554#p2487554

This topic is for the area of interest in extreme southern BOC that I think the thread will go to the archieves soon.

[N2FSU]

There might be a second Low forming over Yucatan.

Looks interesting.

[Weatherwatcher98]

There might be a second Low forming over Yucatan.

Looks interesting.

Shear decreased a bit but will increase again. Not much of a window.

[CourierPR]

Is 92L being robbed of energy by that blob over the YP?

[N2FSU]

Interesting triple blob.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located inland over the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche, southeastern Mexico, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. This system is likely to remain over land,
and development is therefore not expected. Locally heavy rainfall
is still possible across portions of southeastern Mexico and the
Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Still pulsing.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a weak area
of low pressure. Only marginally conducive upper-level winds and
the potential for this system to interact with land should preclude
significant development as this disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward into the Bay of Campeche during the next few days.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains in
association with this system should spread from the Yucatan
peninsula into southeastern Mexico through at least mid-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[LarryWx]

It looks to me like the E blob/weak low (the one that was progged to become a TC about now in that area on model runs a ways back) is now centered offshore somewhat in the Gulf of Honduras and upper level shear is light/under 10 knots. The GFS/Euro prog this to remain about stationary with light shear for ~24 hours before moving westward back into land. No model develops it before moving it inland. I assume this is due to too much competition with the other two blobs but I don't know for sure.

[Weatherwatcher98]

It looks to me like the E blob/weak low (the one that was progged to become a TC about now in that area on model runs a ways back) is now centered offshore somewhat in the Gulf of Honduras and upper level shear is light/under 10 knots. The GFS/Euro prog this to remain about stationary with light shear for ~24 hours before moving westward back into land. No model develops it before moving it inland. I assume this is due to too much competition with the other two blobs but I don't know for sure.

I think that is the Area mentioned in the T.W.O.. They dropped the other area.

[N2FSU]

It looks to me like the E blob/weak low (the one that was progged to become a TC about now in that area on model runs a ways back) is now centered offshore somewhat in the Gulf of Honduras and upper level shear is light/under 10 knots. The GFS/Euro prog this to remain about stationary with light shear for ~24 hours before moving westward back into land. No model develops it before moving it inland. I assume this is due to too much competition with the other two blobs but I don't know for sure.

That would be quite the shocker if, after all this, that area ended up developing somewhat.
It's not going to happen. But what else do we have to watch?

[gatorcane]

The NW Carib looks more impressive than the EPAC area which has an 80% chance of development and more model support. Saved loop:

[srainhoutx]

Yep. Isthmus of Tehuantepec wind gap event where Northerly winds are funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec from the Bay of Campeche are keeping any development in the EPAC in check. Monsoonal slop gyre setups are always a forecasting challenge and that is what make this area interesting to follow.