ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Interesting shear maps this morning.

[boca]

So would that ULL be enough to keep it away from Florida?

[Frank2]

It'll help, and the fairly strong shear ahead of Erika, too - not a favorable environment at this point...

[SouthFLTropics]

Would that ULL create shear or would it be in a position to provide an outflow channel?

[Blown Away]

Interesting shear maps this morning.
http://imageshack.com/a/img540/6159/qbUM3r.gif

Looks like a nice pocket in the SE Bahamas to develop....

[HURRICANELONNY]

Having trouble getting in to chat room. Looks like im in. I can post but next line says not in storm2k

[Frank2]

I believe that's the reason for the northwest shear mentioned in the latest NHC discussion - ULL's and tropical systems don't mix...

[Blown Away]

JB's thoughts... Not sure what he is saying on his paid site...

[Dean4Storms]

Hmmm, not seeing much gain in latitude at this point even with the increase in convection!

[tolakram]

long WV loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-53&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[robbielyn]

It looks like it will miss the forecast point as its to the south of it.

[Dean4Storms]

Just watched Joe B's video on Erika, he's thinking a Cat. 3 into SE Florida but his cone is much like NHC. He thinks the much warmer SST's nearing the Bahamas, less dry air and lessening shear allows rapid intensification.

[boca]

Do you have a link or is it on his premium site

[allicat1214]

I just noticed the same thing:

It appears to be moving south and west of the forecast points to my admittedly untrained eye.

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for TS Erika...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/1145 UTC 16.2N 56.8W T3.0/3.0 ERIKA
26/0545 UTC 16.1N 54.8W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA
25/2345 UTC 16.0N 53.4W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
25/1745 UTC 15.8N 51.6W T2.0/2.5 ERIKA
25/1145 UTC 15.1N 50.2W T2.0/2.5 ERIKA
25/0545 UTC 14.3N 48.3W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA

[tropicwatch]

Hurricane Hunters position is currently west of last position and has not reached the center yet.

[Frank2]

If I had a nickel for every time JB said a Cat 3 would hit SE Florida, I'd be retired - of course he's sitting in PA, so easy for him to predict disaster for Florida...

[Gustywind]

Best Track.

AL, 05, 2015082612, , BEST, 0, 162N, 568W, 40, 1005

[NDG]

As mentioned in the NHC discussion of Danny a few days ago, there appears to be a ULL developing over eastern Cuba this morning - that's a significant factor in Ericka's future development:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

The global models have been showing that for the last couple of days just as they have been showing an UL ridge building on top of Erika as it nears the FL straights.

[tolakram]

If I had a nickel for every time JB said a Cat 3 would hit SE Florida, I'd be retired - of course he's sitting in PA, so easy for him to predict disaster for Florida...

Frank, careful. Hopefully it will recurve as usual, but I also hope everyone is prepared, no last minute supply runs. Be prepared, be happy if it misses. Upper air pattern looks difficult, like even if it misses or is weak it will hang around Florida for a while and dump a lot of rain. I don't think we'll have a clear picture for a few more days.