ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Sanibel]

If it's got anything to it it should pop a good burst soon.



I'm not seeing an elongated center. I'm seeing a good round tight spiral.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop center becoming exposed and heading WNW:

[Frank2]

Many of us live here, too, Weatherlover12 - all we can do is monitor the situation and pray...

As Max Mayfield said last night (Miami ABC station), if you have a plan already in place, just monitor the storm, if you don't have a plan, now is the time to put one together (routes, where to go, what to take, decision to stay in place or go, etc.)...

Frank2

[wxman57]

Model trend is definitely eastward. Most models now track Erika east of Florida then east of the Carolinas. Digging trof into the NW and central Gulf is resulting in moderate-strong SW upper winds across the eastern Gulf, Florida, and through the Carolinas.

[gatorcane]

Yep I think NHC nudges the track east and has the line off of SE Florida coast line a little...for the 5pm advisory. So many hurricanes take that track just east of Florida, so wouldn't be a surprise that if it does become a strong hurricane it tracks east of Florida. We will see.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Frank2]

I see it, too, Sanibel - it's as small as Danny's center (completely exposed and moving W-NW as you mentioned)...

Frank

[Frank2]

Model trend is definitely eastward. Most models now track Erika east of Florida then east of the Carolinas. Digging trof into the NW and central Gulf is resulting in moderate-strong SW upper winds across the eastern Gulf, Florida, and through the Carolinas.

That explains our local cell movement from S - N (surprisingly chilly this morning over the SE states as TWC mentioned this morning, so a deep trough)...

[alienstorm]

I dont see the NHC moving the cone until these runs come in consecutive for 2 runs at least.

[Blown Away]

IMO, nothing radically changed... It all comes down to when Erika deepens and gets influenced northward... Longer it takes the more westward she can go before turning...

[stormlover2013]

I think they will wait till tonights runs to really change the forecast, you just be model happy

[Hammy]

Erika barely looks closed based on the last recon fix, wouldn't be too surprising to see it open up for a day or two though given the threat they may keep it going for consistency and so people don't let their guard down.

[Frank2]

What wxman57 mentioned is significant - the digging trough and moderate to strong SW winds aloft over the Gulf and Florida are important factors...

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Yep I think NHC nudges the track east and has the line off of SE Florida coast line a little...for the 5pm advisory. So many hurricanes take that track just east of Florida, so wouldn't be a surprise that if it does become a strong hurricane it tracks east of Florida. We will see.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No radical changes, remember GFS has a landfall... May swing the track to show landfall/near coast up by Central Florida, which will never happen IMO.

[tolakram]

HWRF model had multiple low centers for the next day so I expect Erika will be pretty unorganized for a while. IMO.

[SunnyThoughts]

IMO, nothing radically changed... It all comes down to when Erika deepens and gets influenced northward... Longer it takes the more westward she can go before turning...

I agree. Have learned over the years that the weaker the system is, the more west (without being influenced as much by trough dipping down or weakness in a ridge) the system will move, and of course...the stronger it becomes, is influenced more by said trough of weakness and will move more to the north. All about timing, as it always is.

[HurriGuy]

It does not matter what we think in regards to whether if the COC is elongated. We have a plane in there now, and their real-time observations are showing an elongated center.

Bottomline is that she is a mess, and it will take days for anything to get organized. Heck, she may even run into Hispaniola, and who knows what would happen then.

[tolakram]

It does not matter what we think in regards to whether if the COC is elongated. We have a plane in there now, and their real-time observations are showing an elongated center.

Bottomline is that she is a mess, and it will take days for anything to get organized. Heck, she may even run into Hispaniola, and who knows what would happen then.

All the models would have to be wrong for that to happen. I don't think it's impossible, but more and more unlikely. In my amateur opinion this stays a mess until north of PR and then starts to organize, but I have no idea how fast or how much. That's what the model blend is telling us I think.

[Hammy]

It does not matter what we think in regards to whether if the COC is elongated. We have a plane in there now, and their real-time observations are showing an elongated center.

Bottomline is that she is a mess, and it will take days for anything to get organized. Heck, she may even run into Hispaniola, and who knows what would happen then.

All the models would have to be wrong for that to happen. I don't think it's impossible, but more and more unlikely. In my amateur opinion this stays a mess until north of PR and then starts to organize, but I have no idea how fast or how much. That's what the model blend is telling us I think.

If anything Erika is performing consistently with the models, which showed weakening and disorganization between 55-70W for some time now.

[ROCK]

not sure what every one is looking at but Erikas center is fully exposed racing away from whats left of her MLC. or I have no idea what I am looking at....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[ROCK]

reminds me of Chris in 2007 I think.....got fully decapitated and died...