ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Steve]

For what is worth the 12z NAM does not weaken Erika to a tropical wave.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=117

Yeah, NAM simulated radar shows a nice structure but also has sort of a cyclonic turning out ahead from the Danny remnants. Yesterday evening's runs had it heading toward the US on a more westerly trajectory while the 12z today seems to be coming in more from a southeasterly direction. Comedy at the end of the 06Z GFS I just noticed - after a low consolidates around the Big Bend and heads south back through Florida, it dances up with one last pulse over New Orleans days 15/16. If it's sensing trapped energy, that's a long long time even if it never gets it to anything meaningful.

[robbielyn]

if she misses her forecast point she could get shredded by Hispaniola and gfs could be right.

GFS doesn't bring it over Hispaniola, it just fails to develop it.

After it moves away the vorticity is washed out, not sure why, but it stays north of Hispaniola.

I meant the gfs solution would pan out e gom

[Bocadude85]

12 GFS is running

[stormlover2013]

Lets see how far this trough digs south, very important player with erika!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS showing big ridge to the north...maybe stronger ridge than 06z. Might push it into Hispaniola.

[BobHarlem]

12 GFS is running

I think GFS is overdoing that ridge here.

[stormlover2013]

this is where the models will start getting a good grip on ridge and trough

[Hurricane Cheese]

Really interested to see the 12Z run...when will recon be out to Erika next as well? You have to think that data, and the recon data from the environment around Erika will really help out the models here sooner rather than later.

[JPmia]

12z GFS showing the high building in over New England with Erika below it. That's a classic setup for a strengthening system.

[NDG]

So far the 12z run is a little stronger with Erika through the next 36 hrs than what it showed on last night's 0z run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Decent Vort ENE of PR at 30 hours...maybe a bit stronger than 06z.

[Kohlecane]

12Z GFS through 42 looks like she might go north of Hispaniola

[gatorcane]

GFS is just north of Hispaniola, let's see if it ramps up on this run.

[stormlover2013]

what does the ridge and the trough look like?

[SouthFLTropics]

what does the ridge and the trough look like?

Big ridge...no trough

[Steve H.]

Watch the GFS spin it up and the Euro drop it......

[stormlover2013]

southfl keep me updated on that please

[gatorcane]

48 hours:

[Blown Away]

North of Hispaniola looks like... That's critical...

[SouthFLTropics]

48 hours:

Only trough I see at 48 hours is back in the Midwest and it doesn't look to be advancing anywhere quickly.