ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[stormlover2013]

thanks, I think it should be around the 80-90 hour mark where it could be a factor

[gatorcane]

GFS High-res, 60 hours, just north of Hispaniola:

[JPmia]

North of Hispaniola looks like... That's critical...

Yes, but it looks like the island will be influencing the storm because it is still a bit of a mess while it passes there.

[NDG]

At 66 hours way more organized compared to previous runs.

[gatorcane]

GFS showing a lot of shear in the Bahamas at 66 hours:

[SouthFLTropics]

At 66 hours way more organized compared to previous runs.

Let's see if it takes off from there.

[gatorcane]

reposting shear map, a lot of shear there, 12Z GFS 66 hours:

[Alyono]

its an open wave at 78 hours

[CalmBeforeStorm]

At 66 hours way more organized compared to previous runs.

But it doesn't show a closed low. Even at initialization the low was open. I think that's the key as the Euro shows a closed low the entire path.

[gatorcane]

Weak in the Bahamas at 78 hours:

[Alyono]

the low was closed at initialization

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS vs Euro battle continues. NHC must be pulling their hair out at this point.

[gatorcane]

But the GFS is hinting at an upper anticyclone trying to build on top, 84 hours below:

[PTrackerLA]

Gotta give it to the GFS for being really consistent, but is it correct?

[NDG]

Another thing to notice about the 12z GFS run so far is that is not as far south and west as previous runs after passing the area of P.R.

[gatorcane]

GFS closing it off again at 90 hours in the Central Bahamas, High-res map below:

[Kohlecane]

Some strengthening at 90

[PTrackerLA]

[quote="gatorcane"]GFS closing it off again at 90 hours in the Central Bahamas, High-res map below:

Closed isobar alert!!!

[deltadog03]

I actually think this is where the euro dominates with its synoptic scale features. IMHO, the Bahamas should** not definitely** but SHOULD** be a place for this to potentially take off.....EURO And HWRF have the better Idea. I am NOT saying this will be as strong as the HWRF, but the GFS looks wrong and too weak at the SFC. Given the look at H5, and looking back over the SE, with that weakness there, the Bahamas should be getting WELL ventilated. I think thats why the GFS is not seeing any strengthening. It doesn't believe that there will be less shear, i.e. see the map above. I guess it could be right, not doubt...but I highly doubt it. Unless the EURO comes down *and consistently* to showing a weak piece of garbage....and the HWRF comes down, then I am calling BS on the weak GFS solution. just my 2 cents right now.

[NDG]

At 66 hours way more organized compared to previous runs.

But it doesn't show a closed low. Even at initialization the low was open. I think that's the key as the Euro shows a closed low the entire path.

That's why I said compared to previous runs, it show a stronger vorticity on this run.
And after seeing what the GFS was forecasting 5 days ago, I am dismissing that model, it has been too conservative with Erika.