EPAC: INVEST 93E

[cycloneye]

93E INVEST 150806 1800 10.0N 122.8W EPAC 15

[Kingarabian]

Yet another basin crosser and possible Hawaii threat.

[Yellow Evan]

Here we go again.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS keeps this south of Hawaii.

[srainhoutx]

My vacation in Oahu starting August 18th continues to look interesting. The current 53rd Hurricane Hunter crew just found out they will continue on duty at Hickam Field until further notice.

[Kingarabian]

Euro doesn't have this yet.

[Yellow Evan]

My vacation in Oahu starting August 18th continues to look interesting. The current 53rd Hurricane Hunter crew just found out they will continue on duty at Hickam Field until further notice.

They should just stay there until we can fly drones via Global Hawk August 27.

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
this system could become a tropical depression by early next week
while it moves generally northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP932015  08/06/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    15    16    18    20    23    29    36    42    48    53    59    63    67
V (KT) LAND       15    16    18    20    23    29    36    42    48    53    59    63    67
V (KT) LGE mod    15    15    16    16    17    18    19    20    21    23    28    34    43
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         4     5     6    10    13     9     8     6     8     7     5     9    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -2    -2     0     1     3     2     0    -3    -5    -5    -4    -7
SHEAR DIR         23     4   345   344   353     1   351     8    10    58    52    60    51
SST (C)         28.6  28.7  28.8  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.6  28.7  28.8  28.9  29.0  29.0  29.0
POT. INT. (KT)   151   151   152   153   153   151   148   149   150   151   152   152   152
200 MB T (C)   -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     8     7     7     8     8     8     8     8     7     8     8
700-500 MB RH     82    82    81    79    77    74    69    69    67    67    67    65    61
MODEL VTX (KT)     4     5     5     5     6     7     8     9    10    10    11    11    12
850 MB ENV VOR     3    -1    -6   -12   -18   -34   -55   -55   -54   -41   -17     3    23
200 MB DIV        35    40    32    31    25    21    -8    13    29    19     7     8    18
700-850 TADV      -2    -2    -2    -4    -4    -1     0     0     0     0     0    -1    -1
LAND (KM)       1992  2028  2066  2088  2114  2174  2247  2329  2418  2499  2513  2451  2392
LAT (DEG N)     10.1  10.4  10.6  11.0  11.3  11.8  12.0  12.0  11.9  11.8  11.6  11.2  10.8
LONG(DEG W)    123.1 124.0 124.9 125.7 126.4 127.7 128.8 129.8 130.8 131.8 132.8 133.6 134.4
STM SPEED (KT)    10     9     9     8     7     6     5     5     5     5     5     4     4
HEAT CONTENT      33    28    24    24    25    28    33    32    32    36    41    32    25


Another hurricane???

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves slowly northwestward through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development through early next week while this system moves
northwestward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development through early next week while this system moves
northwestward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Yellow Evan]

NHC thinking Hilda will upwell?

A broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
While upper-level winds appear conducive for some gradual
development through early next week as it moves generally
northwestward, the system could move over colder water
before developing into a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A broad trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Although
some gradual development is possible through early next week while
it moves generally northwestward, the system could move over cooler
waters before developing into a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

Looks like it has a very small chance to develop.

[Yellow Evan]

It's small so it can form quickly. It wouldn't shock me if this formed.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Although
some gradual development is possible through early next week while
it moves generally northwestward, the system could move over cooler
waters before developing into a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A broad trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While some
development of this system is still possible, it is becoming more
likely that it will reach cooler water and encounter unfavorable
upper-level winds before becoming a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with a broad trough of low pressure
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized since
yesterday. However, while some development of this system is still
possible during the next day or two, it is more likely that it will
reach cooler water and encounter unfavorable upper-level winds
before becoming a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a broad trough of low pressure
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula shows some signs of organization. Some
development of this system is still possible during the next
day or two, but afterwards drier air and unfavorable upper-level
winds are expected to inhibit development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Pasch