92S INVEST 151019 0600 5.2S 56.0E SHEM 25 1004
SIO: INVEST 92S
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jaguarjace
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SIO: INVEST 92S
92S INVEST 151019 0600 5.2S 56.0E SHEM 25 1004
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Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
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Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
AWIO20 FMEE 191218
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2015/10/19 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The convective activity is moderate to locally strong between the Equator and 10S, and between 50E and 75E, within the Near Equatorial Trough.
In this area, a weak clockwise low level circulation has developped during the last 24 hours south of the Seychelles Archipelagos. It was located near 5S/56E at 06.10Z (ASCAT data). The maximum winds are in a 15/20kt range, reaching 25kt in the southern semi-circle.
The MSLP is estimated at 1008hPa.
For the next 48h to 72h hours, this low is likely to deepen slightly, with a good upper level divergence and rather good poleward low level convergence .
From friday and after, the environmental conditions are expected to become unfavourable for further development.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a tropical depression is low south of the Seychelles Archipelagos.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2015/10/19 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The convective activity is moderate to locally strong between the Equator and 10S, and between 50E and 75E, within the Near Equatorial Trough.
In this area, a weak clockwise low level circulation has developped during the last 24 hours south of the Seychelles Archipelagos. It was located near 5S/56E at 06.10Z (ASCAT data). The maximum winds are in a 15/20kt range, reaching 25kt in the southern semi-circle.
The MSLP is estimated at 1008hPa.
For the next 48h to 72h hours, this low is likely to deepen slightly, with a good upper level divergence and rather good poleward low level convergence .
From friday and after, the environmental conditions are expected to become unfavourable for further development.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a tropical depression is low south of the Seychelles Archipelagos.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
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AWIO20 FMEE 201207
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2015/10/20 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The convective activity is moderate to locally strong between the Equator and 10S, and between 50E and 75E, within the Near Equatorial Trough.
In this area, a weak clockwise low level circulation has developed in the near south of Mahe Island in the Seychelles Archipelago. A circulation center is clearly visible on the satellite imagery at 6Z and positioned at 5.3S / 55.4E. The minimal MSLP, estimated by the ground station of Mahe international airport, very close to the center, is 1008 hPa at 9Z. The winds range from 10 kt in the northern part to 20/25kt in the pressure gradient in the south. The cloud structure suggests a north-easterly wind shear, consistent with the numerical weather models upper level analysis . Thus, the strongest convection is only affecting the south-western part of the circulation.
For the next 48 to 72 hours, this low is likely to deepen marginally, with a good upper level divergence and a rather good poleward low level convergence provided by the moderate trade winds, but being constrained by the wind shear. The central low is only moving slightly and remains in the vicinity of the Seychelles archipelago. The main part of the strong convection remains located in the southern half of the circulation and is likely to spare the Seychelles.
From Friday, the environmental conditions are expected to become less and less conducive, with a significant increase of the vertical wind shear. The Seychelles archipelago may be affected by a new rainy episode over the week end.
A second perturbed area is located in the north-west of the Chagos, near 6S / 69E. There is no noticeable center yet. However, the associated convection is quite strong and the upper level divergence is good. As for now, according to the ECMWF model, a weak clockwise circulation should appear in the low levels but without any significant deepening. During the next days, this circulation remains relatively unorganized before disappearing saturday with the arrival of a more significant wind shear constraint.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a tropical depression is low south of the Seychelles Archipelagos.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZOCT2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1S 55.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9S 54.6E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MOGADISHU, AFRICA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)NORTH OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT WEAK
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2015/10/20 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The convective activity is moderate to locally strong between the Equator and 10S, and between 50E and 75E, within the Near Equatorial Trough.
In this area, a weak clockwise low level circulation has developed in the near south of Mahe Island in the Seychelles Archipelago. A circulation center is clearly visible on the satellite imagery at 6Z and positioned at 5.3S / 55.4E. The minimal MSLP, estimated by the ground station of Mahe international airport, very close to the center, is 1008 hPa at 9Z. The winds range from 10 kt in the northern part to 20/25kt in the pressure gradient in the south. The cloud structure suggests a north-easterly wind shear, consistent with the numerical weather models upper level analysis . Thus, the strongest convection is only affecting the south-western part of the circulation.
For the next 48 to 72 hours, this low is likely to deepen marginally, with a good upper level divergence and a rather good poleward low level convergence provided by the moderate trade winds, but being constrained by the wind shear. The central low is only moving slightly and remains in the vicinity of the Seychelles archipelago. The main part of the strong convection remains located in the southern half of the circulation and is likely to spare the Seychelles.
From Friday, the environmental conditions are expected to become less and less conducive, with a significant increase of the vertical wind shear. The Seychelles archipelago may be affected by a new rainy episode over the week end.
A second perturbed area is located in the north-west of the Chagos, near 6S / 69E. There is no noticeable center yet. However, the associated convection is quite strong and the upper level divergence is good. As for now, according to the ECMWF model, a weak clockwise circulation should appear in the low levels but without any significant deepening. During the next days, this circulation remains relatively unorganized before disappearing saturday with the arrival of a more significant wind shear constraint.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a tropical depression is low south of the Seychelles Archipelagos.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZOCT2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1S 55.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9S 54.6E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MOGADISHU, AFRICA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)NORTH OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT WEAK
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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SAB Dvorak classification up to T1.5
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/0000 UTC 4.6S 57.0E T1.5/1.5 92S
20/1800 UTC 4.6S 56.0E T1.0/1.0 92S
20/1130 UTC 5.2S 55.5E T1.0/1.0 92S
20/0600 UTC 6.5S 54.3E T1.0/1.0 92S
19/2330 UTC 5.7S 54.9E T1.0/1.0 92S
Latest
TXXS26 KNES 210041
TCSSIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92S)
B. 21/0000Z
C. 4.6S
D. 57.0E
E. FIVE/MET-7
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/GMI
H. REMARKS...POSITION OF LLCC IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. NORTHERLY SHEAR REMAINS PERSISTENT AND IS KEEPING
CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. BUT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND CONSOLIDATED
THIS PERIOD SO FT MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. CENTER HAS LOOSELY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES AND IS NEAR OR JUST UNDER A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=1.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/1806Z 4.4S 56.7E GMI
...RUMINSKI
TPXS10 PGTW 210352
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92S (E OF SEYCHELLES)
B. 21/0230Z
C. 4.83S
D. 58.14E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTINEZ
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/0000 UTC 4.6S 57.0E T1.5/1.5 92S
20/1800 UTC 4.6S 56.0E T1.0/1.0 92S
20/1130 UTC 5.2S 55.5E T1.0/1.0 92S
20/0600 UTC 6.5S 54.3E T1.0/1.0 92S
19/2330 UTC 5.7S 54.9E T1.0/1.0 92S
Latest
TXXS26 KNES 210041
TCSSIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92S)
B. 21/0000Z
C. 4.6S
D. 57.0E
E. FIVE/MET-7
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/GMI
H. REMARKS...POSITION OF LLCC IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. NORTHERLY SHEAR REMAINS PERSISTENT AND IS KEEPING
CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. BUT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND CONSOLIDATED
THIS PERIOD SO FT MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. CENTER HAS LOOSELY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES AND IS NEAR OR JUST UNDER A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=1.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
20/1806Z 4.4S 56.7E GMI
...RUMINSKI
TPXS10 PGTW 210352
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92S (E OF SEYCHELLES)
B. 21/0230Z
C. 4.83S
D. 58.14E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTINEZ
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AWIO20 FMEE 211216
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2015/10/21 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The convective activity is moderate to locally strong between the Equator and 10S and between 55E and 80E, within the NEar Equatorial Trough.
In this area, a weak clockwise low level circulation exists in the East of Mahe Island in the Seychelles Archipelago. During the last hours, its center became less visible, with an approximate position of 5.5S/57E with the micro wave image of 0338Z.
The minimal MSLP, estimated with the nearest ground stations, is 1008hPa at 10Z. The winds range from 10kt in the northern part of the circulation to 20/25kt in the pressure gradient(ASCAT data). According to the cloud structure and others observations, a north-east wind shear is affecting the system.
For the next 48 to 72 hours, this low is unlikely to deepen. Despite a good upper level divergence, and a rather good low level convergence with the trade wind, the wind shear will still be present and may increase, especially for Friday. Saturday and Sunday, there is still uncertainty with maybe a more conducive environment (decrease of the wind shear). The low is expected to move to the east up to Friday before turning back Saturday. The most convective parts will be located in the southern part of the system and so, they should spare Seychelles until the Saturday night, according to the numerical models.
The second zone of disturbed weather located in the north-west of the Chagos ( around 6S / 69E) is less active than yesterday without a clear closed circulation. The embryonic organisation displayed yesterday on the satellite imagery is no more visible. Models don't propose a significant deepening.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a tropical depression is very low east of the Seychelles Archipelago.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2015/10/21 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The convective activity is moderate to locally strong between the Equator and 10S and between 55E and 80E, within the NEar Equatorial Trough.
In this area, a weak clockwise low level circulation exists in the East of Mahe Island in the Seychelles Archipelago. During the last hours, its center became less visible, with an approximate position of 5.5S/57E with the micro wave image of 0338Z.
The minimal MSLP, estimated with the nearest ground stations, is 1008hPa at 10Z. The winds range from 10kt in the northern part of the circulation to 20/25kt in the pressure gradient(ASCAT data). According to the cloud structure and others observations, a north-east wind shear is affecting the system.
For the next 48 to 72 hours, this low is unlikely to deepen. Despite a good upper level divergence, and a rather good low level convergence with the trade wind, the wind shear will still be present and may increase, especially for Friday. Saturday and Sunday, there is still uncertainty with maybe a more conducive environment (decrease of the wind shear). The low is expected to move to the east up to Friday before turning back Saturday. The most convective parts will be located in the southern part of the system and so, they should spare Seychelles until the Saturday night, according to the numerical models.
The second zone of disturbed weather located in the north-west of the Chagos ( around 6S / 69E) is less active than yesterday without a clear closed circulation. The embryonic organisation displayed yesterday on the satellite imagery is no more visible. Models don't propose a significant deepening.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a tropical depression is very low east of the Seychelles Archipelago.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
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ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZOCT2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9S 54.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9S 59.6E, APPROXIMATELY 748 NM WEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRAGMENTED
AND SHALLOW FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE AREA HAS BEEN
FLARING BUT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE IMPROVEMENT OVERALL. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND REMAINS BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZOCT2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9S 54.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9S 59.6E, APPROXIMATELY 748 NM WEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRAGMENTED
AND SHALLOW FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE AREA HAS BEEN
FLARING BUT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE IMPROVEMENT OVERALL. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND REMAINS BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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Kaput.
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZOCT2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9S 59.6E,
HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WEAKENED AND
BECAME MORE FRAGMENTED. ADDITIONALLY, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
UNRAVELED AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM
IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
AWIO20 FMEE 221045
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2015/10/22 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The convective activity is moderate to locally strong north of 10S and between 55E and 80E, within the Near Equatorial Trough. The arrival of a humid MJO phase over the Indian Ocean and of an active phase of the Kelvin wave favor the development of a negative 200 hPa velocity potential anomaly.
In this area of strong convection, the low level clockwise circulation (LLCC) east of the island of Mahe is located at 05Z near 4.3S/61.0E. The 0506Z Ascat swath shows maximum winds of 10 kt in the northern part and 20/25 kt in the southern semi-circle by gradient effect. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1009 hPa. Eastward to Northeastward vertical windshear is becoming moderate to strong preventing future development of the LLCC. ECMWF and GFS model forecast the filling of the LLCC on sunday.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a tropical depression is very low east of the Seychelles Archipelago.
The convection humidity, favored by the branch of the North-western subtropical jet, takes the shape of a tropical plume towards Rodrigues island. this channel of humidity, by moving Westwards, could trigger rainy and thundery weather in the vicinity of the Mascareignes archipelago during the week-end.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZOCT2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9S 59.6E,
HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WEAKENED AND
BECAME MORE FRAGMENTED. ADDITIONALLY, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
UNRAVELED AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM
IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
AWIO20 FMEE 221045
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2015/10/22 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The convective activity is moderate to locally strong north of 10S and between 55E and 80E, within the Near Equatorial Trough. The arrival of a humid MJO phase over the Indian Ocean and of an active phase of the Kelvin wave favor the development of a negative 200 hPa velocity potential anomaly.
In this area of strong convection, the low level clockwise circulation (LLCC) east of the island of Mahe is located at 05Z near 4.3S/61.0E. The 0506Z Ascat swath shows maximum winds of 10 kt in the northern part and 20/25 kt in the southern semi-circle by gradient effect. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1009 hPa. Eastward to Northeastward vertical windshear is becoming moderate to strong preventing future development of the LLCC. ECMWF and GFS model forecast the filling of the LLCC on sunday.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a tropical depression is very low east of the Seychelles Archipelago.
The convection humidity, favored by the branch of the North-western subtropical jet, takes the shape of a tropical plume towards Rodrigues island. this channel of humidity, by moving Westwards, could trigger rainy and thundery weather in the vicinity of the Mascareignes archipelago during the week-end.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
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Yellow Evan
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