EPAC: INVEST 98E

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2016100906, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1087W, 15, 0, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS035, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035,
EP, 98, 2016100912, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1099W, 20, 0, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS035, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035,
EP, 98, 2016100918, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1111W, 20, 0, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS035, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035,
EP, 98, 2016101000, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1122W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS035, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035,
EP, 98, 2016101006, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1132W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 035, SPAWNINVEST, ep782016 to ep982016,
EP, 98, 2016101012, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1140W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[cycloneye]

Not as favorable for this in the medium range.

A complex area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce widespread clouds and scattered thunderstorms. This
disturbance is expected to slowly consolidate during the next couple
of days while moving west-northwestward to northwestward, and a
tropical depression could form around mid-week. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to gradually become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[hurricanes1234]

I'm putting more hope in the area to the east. This one looks like it won't be in good conditions for much longer.

[hurricanes1234]

Looking more and more like this will be a bust.

A complex area of low pressure located about 800 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. This disturbance
is expected to slowly consolidate while moving west-northwestward
to northwestward, and it could become a tropical depression before
it moves over cooler waters in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[hurricanes1234]

Almost none of the guidance develops this.

> Can't post the image because TinyPic keeps saying invalid code whenever I enter what I see in the box that prevents automated uploads.

[Yellow Evan]

Convection seems to have decreased.