ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

It appears shear has really fallen off today around 91L. Current satellite imagery shows a marked increase in convection and the system appears to be coming together this afternoon. If these trends continue, we may have our second named storm within the next 24 hours or so.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF has a lopsided TD/weak TS.

[cycloneye]

Well not so weak now.

[northjaxpro]

HWRF shows a pick up of strength over the Gulf Stream.

[cycloneye]

Close to landfall.Gulfstream is the real kicker.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, in one run HRWF goes from nothing to strong tropical storm? Is this correct?

[tolakram]

New convection firing.

live loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=black

[gatorcane]

It does have "that look" it should eventually be named. Question is what influence will the Gulf stream has once it goes over that?

[cycloneye]

It does have "that look" it should eventually be named. Question is what influence will the Gulf stream has once it goes over that?

If you visit the 91L Models Thread one model shows how 91L goes thru that area.

[RL3AO]

Theres plenty of dry air off the SE US coast, but if the wind shear is as light as forecast, then I don't really see it being an issue. Really starting to look like a developing TC. Saturday morning may be my first time seeing the ocean (in Jacksonville, FL) and there may be a TS only a few hundred miles off shore!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

HWRF takes 91L/Bonnie to very near hurricane strength near landfall at Cape Romain, SC on Sunday morning. HWRF is a model that was correct in accurately forecasting Danny to major hurricane status last year and also forecasting Joaquin's major hurricane status as well. Certainly plausible.

[northjaxpro]

Theres plenty of dry air off the SE US coast, but if the wind shear is as light as forecast, then I don't really see it being an issue. Really starting to look like a developing TC. Saturday morning may be my first time seeing the ocean (in Jacksonville, FL) and there may be a TS only a few hundred miles off shore!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Bring with you plenty of sun screen because if there is no deviation south with the forecast track, which I am not anticipating at this juncture, then Northeast Florida will stay mostly dry and hot on the southwest subsident side of the cyclone. However, there will be increased surf of course at the beach and rip currents, so be careful if you are venturing out into the water this weekend!

[RL3AO]

Theres plenty of dry air off the SE US coast, but if the wind shear is as light as forecast, then I don't really see it being an issue. Really starting to look like a developing TC. Saturday morning may be my first time seeing the ocean (in Jacksonville, FL) and there may be a TS only a few hundred miles off shore!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Bring with you plenty of sun screen because if there is no deviation south with the forecast track, which I am not anticipating at this juncture, then Northeast Florida will stay mostly dry and hot on the southwest subsident side of the cyclone. However, there will be increased surf of course at the beach and rip currents, so be careful if you are venturing out into the water this weekend!

I'm arriving late Friday night and leaving Saturday morning for Miami. I can't remember exactly where the hotel is so I may not even wander over to the shore.

[northjaxpro]

OK. Well enjoy your brief time here in Jax and down in Miami and safe travels this Memorial Weekend!

[RL3AO]

Thanks. I'm looking forward to my time at NHC this summer. Although, I'm not looking forward to the humidity (I am a Minnesotan after all!).

Thankfully it appears I will avoid any impacts from this system.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks. I'm looking forward to my time at NHC this summer. Although, I'm not looking forward to the humidity (I am a Minnesotan after all!).

Thankfully it appears I will avoid any impacts from this system.

Say hello to Jack Beven down there for me at NHC. I went to school along with him at Florida State in the late 80s-early 90s.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMMET stays with weak TS.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 31.9N 78.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.05.2016 31.9N 78.5W WEAK

00UTC 30.05.2016 32.7N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.05.2016 32.7N 77.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.05.2016 32.8N 77.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.05.2016 32.9N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.06.2016 33.7N 76.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.06.2016 33.3N 76.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF trends a little more stronger.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The low pressure area centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas
has an elongated circulation, although the shower activity has
been increasing during the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for a tropical or subtropical
cyclone to form on Friday or Saturday while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward toward the southeastern United
States coast. With the Memorial Day weekend approaching, all
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate this low on
Friday afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
disturbance will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[northjaxpro]

EURO just a bit south of where GFS and HWRF at the point of landfall on that latest run for 12Z Sunday morning. EURO has landfall in the vicinity of Hilton Head/Charleston region, while GFS and HWRF has the cyclone up near Georgetown SC / Myrtle Beach region.