ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

From SPC on severe potential:

...FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL...
A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE NERN GULF OF
MEXICO INCLUDING PARTS OF FL. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...HEAVY RAIN
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT SOME WIND OR WEAK TOR THREAT COULD
EXIST GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS ALSO INDICATE EXTREME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF FL
WHICH WOULD REDUCE DEWPOINTS. AT THIS TIME...LOW PREDICTABILITY WILL
CURRENTLY PRECLUDE A MARGINAL RISK.

[psyclone]

I'm eagerly anticipating a day of windy, squally weather. it will break the heat, provide much needed rain and yield some weather entertainment...my biggest concern is svr wx (specifically tornado) risk. I'm not expecting a widespread flooding event since the system should be booking along at a good clip...I think we can handle 4-7" without much problem if it's spread out over 12 hours. What wxman57 described is precisely what these june systems in this part of the world typically produce. we should anticipate that absent compelling evidence to the contrary.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Buoy 42056 already reporting wind gusts to 40 mph as some of the squally wx moves over it.

Code: Select all

Conditions at 42056 as of
(10:40 am EDT)
1440 GMT on 06/04/2016:
Unit of Measure:    Time Zone:    Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction   Wind Direction (WDIR):   ESE ( 120 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed   Wind Speed (WSPD):   27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust   Wind Gust (GST):   35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height   Wave Height (WVHT):   8.5 ft
5-day plot - Average Period   Average Period (APD):   5.9 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction   Mean Wave Direction (MWD):   ESE ( 103 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure   Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):   29.85 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature   Air Temperature (ATMP):   79.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature   Water Temperature (WTMP):   84.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point   Dew Point (DEWP):   76.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index   Heat Index (HEAT):   84.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters   Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M):   29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters   Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):   31.1 kt

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[boca]

What type of weather will we get in Soithern Florida since the storm is predicted to hit north of Tampa?

[northjaxpro]

What type of weather will we get in Soithern Florida since the storm is predicted to hit north of Tampa?

There will be plenty of deep moisture and bands rotating through South Florida and the threat of tornadoes, especially on Monday. Hopefully, the bands will move through quickly as the storm keeps picked up by the upper trough late Monday into Tuesday.

[RL3AO]

What type of weather will we get in Soithern Florida since the storm is predicted to hit north of Tampa?

Rain and potentially some tornadoes in the stronger thunderstorms. There is going to be quite a bit of low level shear.

[psyclone]

What type of weather will we get in Soithern Florida since the storm is predicted to hit north of Tampa?

I would imagine anyone east and south of the track is fair game to be on the receiving end of sheared off squalls. You'll get more weather 125 miles east of the center than someone would 25 miles west of the center.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

15 frame live visible. Can make out the area of the low near shore but not very well defined yet IMO.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[northjaxpro]

The tornadoes with these landfalling tropical cyclones for me are just as dangerous as the large scale F3-F5 scale types. They pop up so quick and sudden in such a favorable, shear environment within those rotating feederbands. Monday into early Tuesday really will be heightened alert for these tornadic cells for much of the peninsula.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS a little stronger in the eastern Gulf, down to 1002mb at its deepest. Slight shift to the east.

[HurricaneBelle]

Debby is one the analogs for this system, and here's what Debby did tornado-wise in 2012 (although Debby did sit around for a couple of days while this system should move through relatively quickly).

[northjaxpro]

NHC/TAFB for Tuesday morning shows 1002 mb Tropical Cyclone Colin moving for center landfall near Cedar Key. I'll be interested to see the next EURO run like most everyone I would imagine later today.

[AdamFirst]

12Z GFS a little stronger in the eastern Gulf, down to 1002mb at its deepest. Slight shift to the east.

Same story as various other runs, with the bulk of the weather displaced to the east of the center over the FL Peninsula.

[cycloneye]

Here is the TCPOD of Saturday June 4 for the missions planned to investigate Invest 93L / future TC.First mission is tentative for Sunday afternoon.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1220 PM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-009

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
       A. 05/1800Z                    A. 06/0530Z,1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
       C. 05/1530Z                    C. 06/0330Z
       D. 22.2N 87.8W                 D. 25.0N 87.2W
       E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2230Z        E. 06/0500Z TO 06/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:  CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS.
    3. REMARK:  04/1800Z INVEST MISSION CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1130Z.


[gatorcane]

Low-level vorticity on the increase:

[tarheelprogrammer]

It is starting to get more of a TC look to me IMHO. Spin is starting to look more defined too.

[psyclone]

Levi Cowan just posted a new vid on his Twitter feed...on point as usual.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan just posted a new vid on his Twitter feed...on point as usual.

Link here.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... r-florida/

[tarheelprogrammer]

Levi Cowan just posted a new vid on his Twitter feed...on point as usual.

Yes, the guy is extremely intelligent and knows his stuff. Everyone should give it a watch.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area is forming over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
accompanied by thunderstorm activity that is currently poorly
organized. This low is expected to gradually develop further
tonight and Sunday as it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Subsequently, the low
is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves
northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early
next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven