EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

SST's near Hawaii are 26C but through much of its trek, will be 25C. Not sure if it'll be enough for anything more than a tropical storm.

[Kingarabian]

0Z MU is just north of the islands as a very intense hurricane

The environment seems as if it will be quite favorable as this approaches Hawaii

Doubt it's that favorable north of Hawaii.

The European solution is more likely IMO.

[Kingarabian]

I want to see if the GFS ensembles will be on the same page as the GFS.

Everytime the GFS shows a track north of Hawaii they shift south - and vice versa.

[Alyono]

I'd rather the models forecast a HI landfall this far out.

Would be a clue that landfall would NOT happen given the errors in 8-9 day forecasts

[Kingarabian]

I'd rather the models forecast a HI landfall this far out.

Would be a clue that landfall would NOT happen given the errors in 8-9 day forecasts

We could have something here like Iselle 2014 on our hands here at this point.

[Kingarabian]

And just like that the ensembles are stronger and into Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd rather the models forecast a HI landfall this far out.

Would be a clue that landfall would NOT happen given the errors in 8-9 day forecasts

Given the pattern has taken ex-Agatha and will take ex-Blas near Hawaii and the models have been very consistent for 3-4 days now, landfall is a real possibility at this point.

[Alyono]

Canadian is at least 500 miles north of the islands. Massive northward shift

So far, the trend tonight is farther north. Will need the EC to confirm this trend

[Alyono]

EC solution may be the most reasonable. It moves Celia through as a depression or a remnant low

[Kingarabian]

EC solution may be the most reasonable. It moves Celia through as a depression or a remnant low

The ending of that last Euro run was weird. Showed a weak storm on 850mb wind and mslp but looked like a TS on the voriticy map.

[wxmann_91]

^ Maybe the Euro is seeing some interaction between the storm and the mountains? Either way, I'd agree with Alyono's assessment that a weak storm or less is the most likely solution for HI at this time. Though this far out any model solutions or trends really don't mean anything.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

The intensity analysis of Celia is complicated tonight. The
satellite presentation shows a small CDO feature near the center and
convective banding to the east and south of the center, which
supports Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. However,
a pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 0445Z and 0535Z showed
winds of only 35-40 kt. In addition, recent microwave imagery shows
that the inner core is not very organized yet, especially in the low
levels. Given the ASCAT data, the initial intensity has been
conservatively lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. The ASCAT data
were also used to adjust the initial 34-kt wind radii.

Celia is still expected to strengthen during the next couple of days
and become a hurricane, as the cyclone moves over SSTs of 27-28C.
Beyond 48 hours, the SSTs cool along the forecast track, which has
been adjusted a bit to the north of the previous advisory. This
track takes Celia over SSTs below 26C by day 3 and over SSTs around
24C at days 4 and 5, which should result in weakening. The new NHC
intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but is above
all the guidance through 48 hours out of respect to continuity.
Late in the period the official forecast was also adjusted lower,
but is still above the intensity consensus.

Microwave imagery and the above-mentioned ASCAT data indicate that
Celia is located a bit north of previous estimates with an initial
motion of 280/10. Celia is expected to move westward for the next
24 hours to the south of a mid-level ridge. By 48 hours the cyclone
should turn west-northwestward as a weakness develops in the ridge
around 130W. The ridge begins to rebuild back to the north of the
cyclone at 120 h, which should cause Celia to turn back toward the
west. The new NHC track forecast is north of the previous one
through the forecast period, mainly due to the more northerly
initial position of the system. This track is close to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models and is near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.8N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.9N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 17.5N 131.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 19.7N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 21.0N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[stormwise]

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Sunday, Jul. 10, 2016 6:00 Z
Wind (1 min. avg.):
50 knots (58 mph | 26 m/s | 93 km/h)
Gusts:
60 knots (69 mph | 31 m/s | 111 km/h)
Pressure:
997 mb (29.44 inHg | 997 hPa)
Location at the time:
830 statute miles (1,336 km) to the SW (227°) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, Mexico.
Coordinates:
14.7N 119.2W

[Kingarabian]

Pretty much the GEFS, EPS, and the operational European model are on the same boat.

06z GFS is nuts intensifying Celia from 982mb to 969mb at 23N.

[NDG]

The reason why they keep Celia at only 50 knots this morning.

[Kingarabian]

SAB is at 4.0.

[NDG]

Support for Celia becoming a Major Hurricane has gone down the drain.

[NDG]

SAB is at 4.0.

I guess it is being bumped up on the next advisory, 12z models were started at 60 knots.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS is north of Hawaii

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

The satellite presentation of Celia has improved significantly since
the previous advisory, and a large, well-developed CDO feature is
now evident with overshooting cold tops of -80C to -85C having
developed near the center. The upper-level outflow pattern has also
improved and become more symmetrical. Satellite intensity estimates
range from T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB to 61 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT
and a 1020Z AMSU intensity of 64 kt, putting Celia right at the cusp
of hurricane strength. The initial intensity is being held just
below hurricane status at 60 kt based on the e-w elongation of the
inner-core convection noted in the AMSU data.

The initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Celia is
forecast to move westward for the next 24 h or so to the south of a
strong deep-layer subtropical ridge. By 36-48 h, Celia is expected
to turn west-northwestward as a shortwave trough currently located
along 130W longitude moves eastward and weakens the ridge. By day 3,
the trough is forecast to weaken and lift out to the north, allowing
the ridge to re-strengthen and turn Celia back to a more westward
motion. The new official forecast track is essentially just an
update of the previous advisory and lies close to the TCVE
multi-model consensus.

Based on the overall improvement in the infrared satellite pattern,
it appears that Celia is finally making the long-anticipated move
toward more significant intensification. The best conditions for
strengthening are expected to be during the next 24 h or so when
SSTs are at or above 27C and the vertical shear remains low at 5 kt
or less. By 36-48 h, cooling SSTs ahead of Celia are expected to
inhibit the strengthening process, resulting in a leveling off of
the intensity forecast. By 72 h and beyond, ocean temperatures will
be cooling down to 24C-25C, but the vertical shear is forecast to
remain low. As a result, slower than normal weakening is forecast on
days 3-5. The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than
the intensity consensus model IVCN, and closely follows a blend of
the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical models intensity forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.8N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 14.9N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.0N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.3N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.9N 129.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 17.9N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 20.0N 136.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 21.0N 140.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart