ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

I posted on the models page Tx to Carolinas so I narrowed it down a bit. I also narrowed it down to between a tropical storm and a cat 3.

It's a good time to invest in Xanax, plenty of time to think about it.

I must admit that Brownsville to Bermuda is probably more accurate.

[OuterBanker]

On a more serious note. It seems to me that 99l is consolidating into one center. Not only has the banding to the north started it seems to have gathered the energy from yesterdays south west center. Banding is now starting from the south. To me it's looks like it's starting to get it's act together. But, what do I know.

[Blown Away]

I'm predicting when this system is all done, this topic will have more than 100 pages...

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF brings it to a hurricane well before the islands then to a strong cat two through barbados and the islands.

[perk]

There's a good bit of moisture & energy associated with 99L, even though the convection is currently not there. I think there's a good chance it'll blow up as it nears the eastern Caribbean around next Tue-Wed. Could be a TS threat to the NE Caribbean next Wed-Thu-Fri. Beyond then, somewhere between Brownsville, TX and Bermuda is my best guess.

Thanks for narrowing it down.

[sunnyday]

Approximately when should we know something reasonable about the destination and strength of 99L? Ten days is a long time.....

[Aric Dunn]

Approximately when should we know something reasonable about the destination and strength of 99L? Ten days is a long time.....

give it at least 24 to 36 hours for it organize enough for the models to have well enough defined center to initialize from. anything past the carribean we wont know for 4 days ish until its approaching the carribean.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Convection increasing around the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[gatorcane]

99L in the wide-Atlantic shot as it heads west in the MDR with Fiona off to the NW:

[TheStormExpert]

Has a large circulation!

[cycloneye]

Spin is clearly evident.Is a matter for convection to cover the low and boom.

[Aric Dunn]

I wish SSD would switch over the satellites alreadly over 99l....

[Hammy]

I wish SSD would switch over the satellites alreadly over 99l....

RAMMB has one--I don't think SSD usually does for a non-developed system until it gets within 35-40W.

[sunnyday]

Thank you, Aric, for your answer. Everything seems to change so fast....

[Aric Dunn]

I wish SSD would switch over the satellites alreadly over 99l....

RAMMB has one--I don't think SSD usually does for a non-developed system until it gets within 35-40W.

RAMMB is ok.. but normally they do for Invests. 30 to 35 west which is where it is now. but oh well

[AtlanticWind]

Circulation seems to be well defined today, I expect convection to fire up tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

IT has come a long way in the last 12 hours.. considering the trends today by later tonight and tomorrow if a little more convection build around that "mean" center its quite likely we will have a well defined circ by morning.

[psyclone]

As others have noted this is a large, expansive circulation. If 99L manages to develop it has the foundation of a big, sprawling system.

[gatorcane]

Lacking convection around the center. Sometimes these kind of large systems where you don't see much around the center of the circulation can't get their act together so maybe the ECMWF is thinking the same? Saved loop:

[Bocadude85]

Lacking convection around the center. Sometimes these kind of large systems where you don't see much around the center of the circulation can't get their act together so maybe the ECMWF is thinking the same? Saved loop:

The GFS doesn't really do much with this for the next 3-4 days either though. Wxman57 commented earlier and said he thinks that 99L has a fair chance of firing up as it approaches the Caribbean. I usually become vigilant once he posts and is in favor of development.