ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I keep my sources anon but it will be classified TD shortly with TS following quickly.

Shear the only minor concern and then major storm status.

Some smart people here do as well as NHC (and NHC knows it lol!!)

In relation to both 90 and 99, any thoughts or inside info from your sources about the east coast ridge?

[beoumont]

1st vis: pretty pinwheel

[cycloneye]

On the brink to be a TD.

22/0600 UTC 11.8N 23.8W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic

[Kazmit]

06z track guidances. Very much in agreement

Intensity models

[NDG]

IMO it will be upgraded to a TD at 11 AM.

[cycloneye]

100%-100%

Satellite imagery this morning suggests that a tropical depression
is forming about 300 miles south-southwest of the southern Cabo
Verde Islands, and if current trends continue, advisories would be
initiated later today. This system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

[NDG]

Latest TWO probably will finally make Dr Phil K start tweeting about this system

[tolakram]

:uarrow: Latest TWO probably will finally make Dr Phil K start tweeting about this system

He already has, saying it ruined his two week forecast.

[Ntxw]

90L looks really good convection wise this morning. Should be on it's way to being a formidable hurricane, maybe a major. Cat 4/Cat 5 will require some luck and some good timing

[Kazmit]

90L looks really good convection wise this morning. Should be on it's way to being a formidable hurricane, maybe a major. Cat 4/Cat 5 will require some luck and some good timing

It just so happens to be that for my hypothetical Gaston I predicted was a Cat 4 fish spinner. Hopefully TD 7 is going to form by 11.

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 90 L with TD numbers. 11AM should see a TD for sure.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1200 UTC 12.3N 26.0W T2.0/2.0 90L

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Kazmit]

Still no update... Either it's late or they're not releasing it at all.

[cycloneye]

No upgrade at 11 AM EDT.Maybe they are waiting for observations from Ships in the area to see if they upgrade to Tropical Storm instead to TD.

[cycloneye]

This image updates every half an hour. Looks great.

[chaser1]

I'd bet my Little Debbie Oatmeal cake that this will be upgraded to AT LEAST a depression by mid afternoon. I"m guessing that NHC may be debating whether to upgrade as depression now or to put out a special in a few hours.

[Gustywind]

No upgrade at 11 AM EDT.Maybe they are waiting for observations from Ships in the area to see if they upgrade to Tropical Storm instead to TD.

Yeah you maybe right. Let's wait and see.

[weathaguyry]

I'd bet my Little Debbie Oatmeal cake that this will be upgraded to AT LEAST a depression by mid afternoon. I"m guessing that NHC may be debating whether to upgrade as depression now or to put out a special in a few hours.

Yeah, and the NHC usually updates every 60 seconds or so, and if it takes longer than that sometimes that means they are upgrading a system, but it took 9 minutes (10:51-11:00) to update the website and still no upgrade, oh well

[chaser1]

I'd bet my Little Debbie Oatmeal cake that this will be upgraded to AT LEAST a depression by mid afternoon. I"m guessing that NHC may be debating whether to upgrade as depression now or to put out a special in a few hours.

Yeah, and the NHC usually updates every 60 seconds or so, and if it takes longer than that sometimes that means they are upgrading a system, but it took 9 minutes (10:51-11:00) to update the website and still no upgrade, oh well

Sorry weathaguy, you ain't getting my Little Debbie till 3:15pm lol

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/767755019047362560

[Siker]

Yet another Cat 5 forecast from the GFS: