ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

so likely nhc may drop 93l if see wont get chance becoming td doing weekend

[LarryWx]

so likely nhc may drop 93l if see wont get chance becoming td doing weekend

FL,
Enjoy your nice weekend but you may want to peak in here every so often to make sure 93L is not misbehaving. Conditions may be more favorable over the weekend. So, let's see if convection reignites.
I think I see a LLC near 20N, 65W. Anyone else see it?

[floridasun78]

so likely nhc may drop 93l if see wont get chance becoming td doing weekend

FL,
Enjoy your nice weekend but you may want to peak in here every so often to make sure 93L is not misbehaving.

i will keep eye on outlook

[LarryWx]

New convection is developing right near where I think is the center (20N, 65W). let's see what happens over the next few hours as we approach DMAX. This is a fighter.

Excerpt from JAX marine discussion today:

MARINE

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO
THE NORTH OF OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GEORGIA WATERS. MEANWHILE,
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD APPROACH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES OUR WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

[LarryWx]

Convection is reblossoming near the presumed center of this near 20N, 65.5W. Watch this one, folks. Now even the 0Z Euro has a closed sfc low form from this by late tomorrow and moves it to Melbourne Mon night/Tue as a 1010 mb low.

[northjaxpro]

The system is still a bit elongated but it does look a bit better structually than it did this time yesterday. I would probably bump up the percentages to about a least 20%

I will be curious how the system will be by late this afternoon, but definitely 93L still has some fight for sure.

[Nimbus]

The trough that 92L pulled down is still there out ahead of 93L.
Not sure when it will fill in, historically troughs are pretty persistent when there is a tropical low nearby and this one has two!

[cycloneye]

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are
not expected to be conducive for significant development of this
system while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[LarryWx]

I think there is a LLC near 21.5N, 67.5W, moving WNW.

[SouthFLTropics]

Despite increasing support from the models the NHC continues to give very little love to 93L.

[AutoPenalti]

Despite increasing support from the models the NHC continues to give very little love to 93L.

That might change by the 2 pm TWO with the increasing model support. GFS, HWRF, CMC (yeah, I know) and I think the Euro also has TC Genesis on it.

[TheStormExpert]

93L continues to look like crap late this morning. I couldn't agree more with the NHC giving this mess a 10% chance of development at best.

So all in all we are tracking 2 naked swirls and this on September 10th the peak day of the season. Why am I not surprised?

[ConvergenceZone]

So Bizarre. Here we are at the peak of hurricane season, and we have 3 invests that are struggling to stay alive. This is very bizarre

[DESTRUCTION5]

So Bizarre. Here we are at the peak of hurricane season, and we have 3 invests that are struggling to stay alive. This is very bizarre

Not really..On par for the 2010s...

[JaxGator]

93L continues to look like crap late this morning. I couldn't agree more with the NHC giving this mess a 10% chance of development at best.

So all in all we are tracking 2 naked swirls and this on September 10th the peak day of the season. Why am I not surprised?

That's ironic given the increasing model support. Almost all models develop it to a certain degree and hit anywhere from South-Central Florida.

[StormHunter72]

Good news. Florida does not need anymore rain.

[northjaxpro]

Good news. Florida does not need anymore rain.

Actually, that is not true for the whole peninsula in some areas like where I am here in Northeast Florida. Some portions of my area is nearly 12 inches below normal rainfall for the year to this juncture. I am also aware of areas in Southeast Florida have been very dry as well this year. It has been a dry and hot summer for sure. We are very dry here and actually need some rain really bad. We should be in our wettest time of the year here right now. At the very least, am hoping this system will come through the state as an open trough/wave and bring some relief by Wednesday. Right now, development does not look too promising at the moment, despite the growing model support for 93L.

[cajungal]

Both 92 and 93 L look horrible. I seen better looking systems during just a regular heavy summer thunderstorm. The only one that has any potential is 94 l but it will be a fish. It is a good thing if Louisiana can get through the rest of this season without another threat. So people can rebuild their lives. Next few weeks the threat on the central gulf coast goes way down.

[LarryWx]

This evening has been about the earliest that any model runs that have formed a sfc low have started sfc development as the influence from the upper low to its west/SW, which has been causing a rather strong southerly follow at 200 mb resulting in elongation of convection, diminishes as it repositions itself south of 93L. While this happens, an upper high to its north at 200 mb starts to have influence and change the 200 mb winds to light easterly, which means more favorable upper winds/lighter shear for the next couple of days. That along with very warm SSTs will at least give it a chance. The main thing that could hold it back would seemingly be too dry air but we'll see. Anyone have maps showing how dry the air is in the area?
I'm sticking with a 30% chance for development over the next 3 days but expect that to either rise or fall by tomorrow morning depending on what it does during the crucial period of today/tonight.

[TheStormExpert]

Mid-Level Dry Air



SAL



Wind Shear



Shear Tendency