ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Lol saw this earlier on TWC and had to find it and share.. With all this model/satellite watching, we all need some comic relief every now and then...

It gets funnier everytime I look at it.

[JPmia]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Absolutely. Complacency kicks in. Though, in my opinion, I believe most South Floridians treat minimal hurricanes differently. A couple examples: My mom had to work at IHOP the day Hurricane Irene hit back in 1999. They closed the restaurant when (naturally) conditions went south and my mom's Camaro ended up getting flooded out as she tried to drive back into the neighborhood.

Another example would be Katrina in 2005 (which is becoming the analog for this potential storm) where many people were out doing their business and having a normal Friday night despite a (rapidly intensifying) landfalling hurricane.

I remember driving home from work during Katrina.. nothing like rush hour traffic in hurricane conditions! Yes, many are personally unprepared since it's been so long since our last one. But the good news is that many Publix stores and gas stations have generators, many homes have them too, lots of storm shutters and hurricane impact glass has been installed on buildings since 2005.. I will say this.. look at the historical tracks of hurricanes hitting FL from the SE/E and their next target is usually North Gulf Coast.. it's where they round the high pressure and make the north turn.. we shall see.

(My amateur thoughts and not a weather expert by any means)

[floridasun78]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

i live here Miami doing few hurr scare and few hurr too people here wait for watch be issue before their go publix and winnixe and walmart and home depot so yes we here wait untill news hype it up put hurr flag up

[Kingarabian]

Those responses were not too assuring lol. This seems to have a lot of potential to be a disaster... I'm betting most of the new folks residing in the gulf states are just as lax...

[Aric Dunn]

Its definitely looking like we have llc fairly co located with the mlc. still not overly well defined but radar satellite seem to indicate this given the relative storm motion on radar and obs. recon should by tomorrow a TS if this continues. still a little elongation but that seems to be changing.

[chaser1]

Its definitely looking like we have llc fairly co located with the mlc. still not overly well defined but radar satellite seem to indicate this given the relative storm motion on radar and obs. recon should by tomorrow a TS if this continues. still a little elongation but that seems to be changing.

Aric, so your take is that the mean center will likely slide through or east of the Mona Passage, i'm taking it?

[Aric Dunn]

Like the video posted by Levi Cowan. I do not think Hispaniola will be a factor despite the visually impressive looking MLC vorticity at the south part of the wave. Based on observations and satellite imagery the main focal point of lower level convergence is to the north and will remain there.

It also looked for a few frames on satellite the mid-level spin to the south was attempting consolidation to the north.

unfortunately there is nothing in the north part. the vort/circ to the south is quickly moving to the NW and will be in place in the NE carrib by morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Its definitely looking like we have llc fairly co located with the mlc. still not overly well defined but radar satellite seem to indicate this given the relative storm motion on radar and obs. recon should by tomorrow a TS if this continues. still a little elongation but that seems to be changing.

Aric, so your take is that the mean center will likely slide through or east of the Mona Passage, i'm taking it?

given the dynamics of the tilt in the wave axis and steering the "llc" will likely be in the NE Carrib by morning and passing over or just east of PR during the remainder of the day.

[floridasun78]

this could do andrew track not strong Andrew but go into new Orleans area that dont need any more rain some make it good hurr by south fl and bigger storm in gulf

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[Happy Pelican]

I have a question to the folks who live in Florida:

Do you feel that Floridians have become a bit laxed and may be less prepared for a hurricane/major hurricane hit due to the 10 year drought?

Yes, particularly the folks new to Florida since 2004/2005.

I would agree with this statement...being a 4 generation native I've seen my fair share of storms and heard stories about many others. There are many new transplanted residents that have moved here over the past 11 years that have never been through a storm. The complacency and lack of experience is definitely there.

This was part of the problem here at the Jersey Shore with Sandy. They evacuated us for Irene the year before and down here (I know north Jersey flooded) we only had some wind and rain. When Sandy came along, peop,e were laughing it off. I had a sick feeling about Sandy and packed my family up and got out. Part of my home is still being rebuilt

[SeGaBob]

When tomorrow does recon go in?

[Kingarabian]

Yes, particularly the folks new to Florida since 2004/2005.

I would agree with this statement...being a 4 generation native I've seen my fair share of storms and heard stories about many others. There are many new transplanted residents that have moved here over the past 11 years that have never been through a storm. The complacency and lack of experience is definitely there.

This was part of the problem here at the Jersey Shore with Sandy. They evacuated us for Irene the year before and down here (I know north Jersey flooded) we only had some wind and rain. When Sandy came along, peop,e were laughing it off. I had a sick feeling about Sandy and packed my family up and got out. Part of my home is still being rebuilt

I'm sorry to hear that. Complacency has the potential to be a serial killer.

[floridasun78]

my weather man show euro models show strong hurr over south fl he didn't say was cat 1 or 2 and big hurr in gulf

[WeatherEmperor]

Its definitely looking like we have llc fairly co located with the mlc. still not overly well defined but radar satellite seem to indicate this given the relative storm motion on radar and obs. recon should by tomorrow a TS if this continues. still a little elongation but that seems to be changing.

Aric, so your take is that the mean center will likely slide through or east of the Mona Passage, i'm taking it?

given the dynamics of the tilt in the wave axis and steering the "llc" will likely be in the NE Carrib by morning and passing over or just east of PR during the remainder of the day.

What are implications on the future track if it passes over PR? Right now none of the models have it moving over PR. They are all a bit east of there

[dexterlabio]

I admit I'm a Euro hugger but the latest run is enough for me to think things through and plan accordingly. And I see the GFS caving in to the Euro solution...and I won't be surprised if the GFS caves in completely. Quite the same story with Lionrock in the WPAC right now.

[SFLcane]

This is beginning to look impressive..

[JaxGator]

When tomorrow does recon go in?

Tomorrow morning I believe.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, so your take is that the mean center will likely slide through or east of the Mona Passage, i'm taking it?

given the dynamics of the tilt in the wave axis and steering the "llc" will likely be in the NE Carrib by morning and passing over or just east of PR during the remainder of the day.

What are implications on the future track if it passes over PR? Right now none of the models have it moving over PR. They are all a bit east of there

not directly over it no.. but even a slight wobble or westward motion or reformation. could put it over PR. but it would have little impact given its large size and likely only being a minimal TS the center would survive pretty intact if it went over PR.

[floridasun78]

0Z

When tomorrow does recon go in?

Tomorrow morning I believe.

E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z

[Fego]

Its definitely looking like we have llc fairly co located with the mlc. still not overly well defined but radar satellite seem to indicate this given the relative storm motion on radar and obs. recon should by tomorrow a TS if this continues. still a little elongation but that seems to be changing.

Aric, so your take is that the mean center will likely slide through or east of the Mona Passage, i'm taking it?

given the dynamics of the tilt in the wave axis and steering the "llc" will likely be in the NE Carrib by morning and passing over or just east of PR during the remainder of the day.

Hi Aric, long time. Long night here for some of us. Do you expect 99L/08L/Hermine to slow down while passing NE of us or at the present velocity?