ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

There are a TON of wx weenies here.

I thought we used to have a model discussion thread (like the recon discussion thread). that needs to be brought back. Or, as an alternative, make the model thread image only posts to force the discussion over here. I prefer option A.

We already have too many threads. Just need to train people to not talk in the model thread and come back over here. It's a work in progress.

Just my opinion but I wish there was a per storm thread that covered all the bases. It would only have to be moderated for stupidity and trolling. Y'all could always have side recon based or personal observation based threads. But when you moderate for content, and several threads cross over, overlap will happen. It has to because models are a discussion item.

[La Sirena]

What I keep thinking is as complex as this setup beyond 5 days is, the NAVGEM and CMC - normally unreliable models even in the medium-range have been basically showing the same quick recurve east of Florida and into the Bahamas even in the long-range from several days ago. Certainly the end-result cannot be as simple as what these models keep showing run after run. Usually you can be assured the storm is not going where these models take it....

Well, I'm not sure if that's a PRO or a CON lol! So, either they got a clue toward the recurve or it means the recurve won't happen!

Glass half full/half empty...tomato tomahto...

[RL3AO]

I wouldn't be worried anywhere on the East Coast. When models shift east there's no going back. I don't care if it's still a week out or 1 day out those are the facts. People might jump on me over this...

So if a future NHC cone is aiming for North Carolia and landfall is 24 hours away, they shouldn't be worried?

[Steve]

I wouldn't be worried anywhere on the East Coast. When models shift east there's no going back. I don't care if it's still a week out or 1 day out those are the facts. People might jump on me over this...

Lmao

[SeGaBob]

I wouldn't be worried anywhere on the East Coast. When models shift east there's no going back. I don't care if it's still a week out or 1 day out those are the facts. People might jump on me over this...

So if a future NHC cone is aiming for North Carolia and landfall is 24 hours away, they shouldn't be worried?

Based on trends that won't happen.

[Steve]

Haha. I don't mean to be egging you on, but this is greatness.

[ronyan]

When do we get a new microwave pass?

[OntarioEggplant]

Gang,

We (the admins and mods) have noticed the civility level on the forums has taken a nosedive since this morning. There is far too much bickering and sniping going on about each other's opinions. It's perfectly fine to disagree with someone on here, and have your own viewpoint (it helps A LOT if you have some solid reasoning behind it), but PLEASE...before you hit the enter key on your posts...ask yourself if you are addressing the other person the way that you would want to be addressed.

And if you find your post or posts are disappearing, it's because we're trying REALLY REALLY hard to keep the threads as clutter-free as possible. Remember, we do have a chat room you can go to if you want to be more informal, OT, etc.

Play nice, gang.

Thanks.

I agree except for within this thread as it is labeled a "Discussion" thread. Some banter is going to happen within it.

[SeGaBob]

If i turn out to be wrong I'll have no problem admitting it... East of Bermuda seems less likely now so I'll bust on that.

[Zanthe]

I wouldn't be worried anywhere on the East Coast. When models shift east there's no going back. I don't care if it's still a week out or 1 day out those are the facts. People might jump on me over this...

So if a future NHC cone is aiming for North Carolia and landfall is 24 hours away, they shouldn't be worried?

Based on trends that won't happen.

I would imagine people would jump on you -- You're actually endangering people's lives! There are a lot of people who don't understand the weather as much as others who come to this forum to get advice, and seeing your post could lull them into a false sense of security. Don't bother mentioning why you think that, don't add any evidence, just post that the east coast shouldn't worry? Well who are you? When there are tons of pro mets saying to monitor this, then you should keep an eye out regardless of where you live, not telling people that there's no chance that their lives might be in danger. When all is said and done you could very well be right, but my god, were over a week out. Don't be irresponsible like that.

[Bocadude85]

I wouldn't be worried anywhere on the East Coast. When models shift east there's no going back. I don't care if it's still a week out or 1 day out those are the facts. People might jump on me over this...

Umm the models shifted east a few days ago and had this going over DR and have now shifted WEST of Hispaniola, so you are already wrong.

[drewschmaltz]

I wouldn't be worried anywhere on the East Coast. When models shift east there's no going back. I don't care if it's still a week out or 1 day out those are the facts. People might jump on me over this...

So if a future NHC cone is aiming for North Carolia and landfall is 24 hours away, they shouldn't be worried?

[sarcasm] How in the world could the NHC cone be aiming at NC? I thought SeGaBob was rather clear when he said that "when models shift east there's no going back" and "those are the facts"

Your hypothetical is ridiculous. Utterly impossible.

Although, this is totally at odds with Bones2016's swollen foot. [/sarcasm]

I am going to contribute to this forum by tracking errors in long range forecasts and analyze the merit of these and other hypothesis. If anyone has a resource that has information and/or data that could help me, please show me the way.

[jlauderdal]

When do we get a new microwave pass?

we have recon, radar and surface obs

[SeGaBob]

I should've worded that better...East then west then back east is what I meant.
And I said I wouldn't be worried but other people can if they want.

[floridasun78]

I wouldn't be worried anywhere on the East Coast. When models shift east there's no going back. I don't care if it's still a week out or 1 day out those are the facts. People might jump on me over this...

you putting your self hot water by saying that with other member storm2k

[mcheer23]

Gang,

We (the admins and mods) have noticed the civility level on the forums has taken a nosedive since this morning. There is far too much bickering and sniping going on about each other's opinions. It's perfectly fine to disagree with someone on here, and have your own viewpoint (it helps A LOT if you have some solid reasoning behind it), but PLEASE...before you hit the enter key on your posts...ask yourself if you are addressing the other person the way that you would want to be addressed.

And if you find your post or posts are disappearing, it's because we're trying REALLY REALLY hard to keep the threads as clutter-free as possible. Remember, we do have a chat room you can go to if you want to be more informal, OT, etc.

Play nice, gang.

Thanks.

How is "Im on #TeamGulf" clutter...?

[Ken711]

I wouldn't be worried anywhere on the East Coast. When models shift east there's no going back. I don't care if it's still a week out or 1 day out those are the facts. People might jump on me over this...

So if a future NHC cone is aiming for North Carolia and landfall is 24 hours away, they shouldn't be worried?

Based on trends that won't happen.

Trends that far out? I still believe a NC/VA landfall is a strong possibility.

[La Sirena]

Gang,

We (the admins and mods) have noticed the civility level on the forums has taken a nosedive since this morning. There is far too much bickering and sniping going on about each other's opinions. It's perfectly fine to disagree with someone on here, and have your own viewpoint (it helps A LOT if you have some solid reasoning behind it), but PLEASE...before you hit the enter key on your posts...ask yourself if you are addressing the other person the way that you would want to be addressed.

And if you find your post or posts are disappearing, it's because we're trying REALLY REALLY hard to keep the threads as clutter-free as possible. Remember, we do have a chat room you can go to if you want to be more informal, OT, etc.

Play nice, gang.

Thanks.

How is "Im on #TeamGulf" clutter...?

Not to speak for them, but I believe the idea is to keep the MODEL thread strictly academic with model images and discussion purely focused on scientific questions and discussion regarding models.

[SeGaBob]

I wouldn't be worried anywhere on the East Coast. When models shift east there's no going back. I don't care if it's still a week out or 1 day out those are the facts. People might jump on me over this...

Added the disclaimer on that post so there won't be any more misunderstandings.

[Windspeed]

I should've worded that better...East then west then back east is what I meant.
And I said I wouldn't be worried but other people can if they want.

The models are resolving/dealing with upper cut off features that haven't even developed. It's not as if we have a set-point-match trough digging through the GOM on every single run in the 150+ hour range on the more proficient model groupings. This is a situation that warrants a lower degree of confidence even more so than typical 5-7 day trends so be wise and don't expect any decent degree of verification this far out, much less make bold claims. You're more likely wrong, even if you're basing your opinion on more common or typical model trends on past tropical systems.

Again, key point, until upper cutoff feature actually develops, we're in a higher degree of long term error. Each run may resolve a particular feature in a different location or that feature may not even resolve at all. In this case, a large ULL over the GOM with respect to greater heights to the east. Models are handling that and some aren't even resolving it at all. Way too early right now to know anything regardless, but in this case, even more so.