ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Looks very similar to the path of Katrina, hitting South FL as a cat 1 and then blossoming into a MH in the Gulf and making a beeline for New Orleans. Scary times ahead.

Many people on here have been saying this the past couple days now which is extremely unsettling. I started noticing the similarities as well. Some have gone as far to say Katrina being a good analog for this storm.

naw Socalhurcnegirl, probably a "flash in the pan" (like a one night stand )

In all seriousness, looking at the shortwave IR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif I'd say a tight closed LLC has cozily nudged itself just under the eastern side of that CDO looking thing... you know, that blob where an eye might just pop out at any moment LOL?!

[AutoPenalti]

LLC is still trying to catch up to the MLC or vise versa, but it looks due WNW/NW

[wflamholtz]

Alright, we are all getting excited at the radar, thinking that we see a LLC. It appears to just be an eddy vorticy associated with that cluster of t-storms. The main low level vort max appears to be shooting north, just east of PR, and you can associate it with the blowup of convection in that areahttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/avn0.gif

[chaser1]

Its transformation over the last few hours is AMAZING. I mean I don't even smoke, but I think I need a cigarette...

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Looks very similar to the path of Katrina, hitting South FL as a cat 1 and then blossoming into a MH in the Gulf and making a beeline for New Orleans. Scary times ahead.

Many people on here have been saying this the past couple days now which is extremely unsettling. I started noticing the similarities as well. Some have gone as far to say Katrina being a good analog for this storm.

naw Socalhurcnegirl, probably a "flash in the pan" (like a one night stand )

In all seriousness, looking at the shortwave IR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif I'd say a tight closed LLC has cozily nudged itself just under the eastern side of that CDO looking thing... you know, that blob where an eye might just pop out at any moment LOL?!

haha very true though just really caught me off guard with how it looked compared to earlier. think the size of the storm itself is why it looks so intense

[AutoPenalti]

Well, I'm off the bed, let's just call it now, this heads due west and gets shredded in Hispaniola.

Night.

[Aric Dunn]

Alright, we are all getting excited at the radar, thinking that we see a LLC. It appears to just be an eddy vorticy associated with that cluster of t-storms. The main low level vort max appears to be shooting north, just east of PR, and you can associate it with the blowup of convection in that areahttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/avn0.gif

the products are not based on observation..

[SeGaBob]

It seems to have shrunk in size the last few hours... might consolidate faster?

[Incident_MET]

Alright, we are all getting excited at the radar, thinking that we see a LLC. It appears to just be an eddy vorticy associated with that cluster of t-storms. The main low level vort max appears to be shooting north, just east of PR, and you can associate it with the blowup of convection in that areahttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/avn0.gif

NHC objective guid initializes 16.7N 61.3W. Well southeast of PR. and underneath deep convective burst.

[BeachBum1967]

Umm, this is going to rapidly intensify, but at the same time it looks like it's still going due west, straight into PR.

Have you compared it's track with any other past storms yet? If not take a look at the path of the 1900 Galvez storm. Almost right on the same path so far. It went due west.

I know conditions are a bit different but man these two sure are lining up.

[Hurrilurker]

6 hours ago I thought it was getting boring.
3 hours ago I thought it was getting interesting.
Now I think it's getting scary.

They need to get recon in there ASAP. If this is a hurricane tomorrow morning, Southern Florida is going to lose its collective mind, although ultimately it may be Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi that have the most to fear from this storm.

[Hammy]

If this is a hurricane tomorrow morning, Southern Florida is going to lose its collective mind, although ultimately it may be Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi that have the most to fear from this storm.

Center is forming in the general vicinity of Antigua, but it's not quite there yet.



There is vorticity near Puerto Rico as well, so this is still quite elongated, though better organized than earlier. This won't be a hurricane until at least Saturday, and that's if it beats all the model projections--it still has any disruption from Hispaniola, even if to the south, to contend with first in the short term.

[Kingarabian]

[SeGaBob]

Has to be more than 30kts

[Aric Dunn]

If this is a hurricane tomorrow morning, Southern Florida is going to lose its collective mind, although ultimately it may be Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi that have the most to fear from this storm.

http://i.imgur.com/Gro0Z7B.png

Center is forming in the general vicinity of Antigua, but it's not quite there yet. There is rotation near Puerto Rico as well, so this is still quite elongated, though better organized than earlier. This won't be a hurricane until at least Saturday, and that's if it beats all the model projections--it still has any disruption from Hispaniola, even if to the south, to contend with first in the short term.

agreed on your not being a hurricane anytime soon part.. but your surface analysis is off..

[chaser1]

(young intern nervously runs back and for the second time, knocks on "nap room" door) "Stewart, call on line 5. No, I don't know who she is; some wind-bag named Hermine. Says she wants to talk to you immediately, keeps refusing to leave a message, and threatened to stay on hold until 5:00a.m. if necessary!"

[chaser1]

Anyone else notice the NESDIS loop? We dont enter eclipse for a few weeks, right??

[Kingarabian]

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[chaser1]

Thats it, I'm seriously done. I'll actually be surprised to get up in 5 hours and NOT see an eye feature. G'nite all.

[tolakram]

Moderators after reading this feel free to delete, please make sure everyone has the disclaimer so the people that are coming on here because of the new threat knows the difference between everything.

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My quick opinion of the overnight satellite ... the blob looks too far south so I assume it's the MLC and the system is still not well stacked. Invests always look good at night.

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