ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Euro is busted right now.

[Hammy]

Euro is busted right now.

It's been broken since last year, really.

[1900hurricane]

One set of model runs doesn't guarantee anything, but I do believe that the 00Z suite (pending EPS) took a big step towards a more unified solution.

Of course, perhaps I should fully wait until the 00Z ECMWF finishes running too.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro showing a strong ridge now off the carolinas vs the 12z run which had a low lol.. complete opposite

[AutoPenalti]

Euro showing a strong ridge now off the carolinas vs the 12z run which had a low lol.. complete opposite

Shouldn't that mean a west shift then? lol

[chaser1]

One set of model runs doesn't guarantee anything, but I do believe that the 00Z suite (pending EPS) took a big step towards a more unified solution.

Of course, perhaps I should fully wait until the 00Z ECMWF finishes running too.

Oh, I"m not at all questioning the recent overall model consistency and in fact would go so far to suggest that the last couple of runs by the GFS and EURO have definitely come into decent agreement. I'm simply questioning the level of ridge degradation that ALL of them are advertising that results in a fairly large storm around 12N and 75W to suddenly shoot poleward. Like Aric said, just gotta wait till the Gulfstream is deployed for a better sampling.

[fci]

Really?
Arguments on who was right and wrong and who predicted what on this storm and that storm?
We are all guessing here.
None of us are genius', have a fool-proof crystal ball or tell Mother Nature what to do.
The Pro Mets are the closest we get to predicting correctly and that is because they use SCIENCE to make their calls!
It's not a game of who made the best guesses.
And yes, they are guesses.
Come on folks........

I do have the right to back myself up if I'm going to be outright accused of trolling for making a valid assessment of the situation.

Yeah, I share an aversion to the word "trolling" especially when it doesn't apply.

[Hammy]

Euro showing a strong ridge now off the carolinas vs the 12z run which had a low lol.. complete opposite

I'm basically viewing this as legitimately as the GEM until we get some upper air measurements--I've lost count of how many times I've seen one solution shown, and then once they get the upper air planes out there, the idea completely changes but zeroes in on a single outcome.

[AutoPenalti]

When is the next mission for UAP measuring?

[AJC3]

I'm beginning to wonder if Matthew's COC might become partially exposed over the next several hours. A friend pointed out that he thinks the center may be trying to shoot out from underneath the ball of convection. I'd like to see a few more IR2 frames before I pass judgement. However, given that the formative CDO isn't moving westward very much right now relative to Matthew's last reported forward speed (W @ 14KT), and the low level easterlies tend to accelerate over the central Caribbean, it makes some sense. Perhaps what Lix alluded to in his 11PM TCD might come to fruition. Still not sold on what my friend opined just yet.

[Hammy]

the low level easterlies tend to accelerate over the central Caribbean

Is this why just about every storm that goes through there seems to be sheared, essentially self-induced from forward speed?

[AJC3]

the low level easterlies tend to accelerate over the central Caribbean

Is this why just about every storm that goes through there seems to be sheared, essentially self-induced from forward speed?

Yes. It's referred to as the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ). However, there have been several notable exceptions to this weakening taking place during periods where the local acceleration is minimal or non-existent.

Here's an excellent reference written by a good friend of mine: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/4906922.pdf

[N2FSU]

I'm beginning to wonder if Matthew's COC might become partially exposed over the next several hours. A friend pointed out that he thinks the center may be trying to shoot out from underneath the ball of convection. I'd like to see a few more IR2 frames before I pass judgement. However, given that the formative CDO isn't moving westward very much right now relative to Matthew's last reported forward speed (W @ 14KT), and the low level easterlies tend to accelerate over the central Caribbean, it makes some sense. Perhaps what Lix alluded to in his 11PM TCD might come to fruition. Still not sold on what my friend opined just yet.

If so, would this have any implication on future track?

[AJC3]

I'm beginning to wonder if Matthew's COC might become partially exposed over the next several hours. A friend pointed out that he thinks the center may be trying to shoot out from underneath the ball of convection. I'd like to see a few more IR2 frames before I pass judgement. However, given that the formative CDO isn't moving westward very much right now relative to Matthew's last reported forward speed (W @ 14KT), and the low level easterlies tend to accelerate over the central Caribbean, it makes some sense. Perhaps what Lix alluded to in his 11PM TCD might come to fruition. Still not sold on what my friend opined just yet.

If so, would this have any implication on future track?

Tough to say. In such a scenario, the LLC might get pushed a degree or two farther westward than what the globals are suggesting, but you'd have to think that once it rounds the SW corner of the ridge in about 3-4 days the deep layer steering winds, and thus the cyclone itself, will be better aligned, and then make the northward turn as a well-developed system. First, however, let's see what Matthew looks like once we get a few visible images to look at in a few hours. It does appear the LLC is right on the western edge of the central convective mass.

[Hammy]

From NHC discussion:

Matthew is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear, with the low-level center located near the
western edge of the main convective mass.

And the reduction in end-run intensity has begun, now forecasting a peak of 85kt.

[Siker]

I really don't see the Erika comparison in intensity forecast. Erika's issues were compounded by ploughing straight into Hispaniola. In terms of track prediction, this could end up with more of a W / WSW heading than predicted before turning, like Erika continuing W rather than WNW. As AJC3 pointed out, the eventual turn to the north is going to coincide not only with a decrease in forward speed but also better alignment with the upper winds coming out of the S / SW, helping to greatly decrease any lingering shear.

This will end up with far fewer roadblocks than other recent systems once it manages to slow down. I don't see this peaking at less than a Category 2; there's too much working for it.

I'd also like to mention that this has unanimous model support for significant intensification over the next 5 days; Hermine never had that.

[GCANE]

With all that convection, still a ragged looking core. Wide makes it slow to develop.

[N2FSU]

I'm beginning to wonder if Matthew's COC might become partially exposed over the next several hours. A friend pointed out that he thinks the center may be trying to shoot out from underneath the ball of convection. I'd like to see a few more IR2 frames before I pass judgement. However, given that the formative CDO isn't moving westward very much right now relative to Matthew's last reported forward speed (W @ 14KT), and the low level easterlies tend to accelerate over the central Caribbean, it makes some sense. Perhaps what Lix alluded to in his 11PM TCD might come to fruition. Still not sold on what my friend opined just yet.

If so, would this have any implication on future track?

Tough to say. In such a scenario, the LLC might get pushed a degree or two farther westward than what the globals are suggesting, but you'd have to think that once it rounds the SW corner of the ridge in about 3-4 days the deep layer steering winds, and thus the cyclone itself, will be better aligned, and then make the northward turn as a well-developed system. First, however, let's see what Matthew looks like once we get a few visible images to look at in a few hours. It does appear the LLC is right on the western edge of the central convective mass.

That makes sense, thank you.

[GCANE]

Red, not white, indicates a more moderate to heavy rain rate which means a relatively slower heating of the core.

[GCANE]

200mb Vort.
Cutoff Low clearly seen over Kentucky with the PV anomaly dropping down to western Cuba and into West Carib.

Also have something south of Hispaniola which could interact with Matthew but seems to be dissipating somewhat.