ATL: HERMINE - Models

[SFLcane]

00z nogaps has 99L intensifying heading westward in Bahamas towards SFL and Keys.

[Caneman12]

Expect this over the coming days
1. Tuesday the GFS will start to pick up on the Ridge that the Euro is showing
2. Models continue to flip flop until Hurricane hunters fly in
3. The only model that will stay the same is the King Euro that is also sometimes stubborn

[Hammy]

Expect this over the coming days
1. Tuesday the GFS will start to pick up on the Ridge that the Euro is showing
2. Models continue to flip flop until Hurricane hunters fly in
3. The only model that will stay the same is the King Euro that is also sometimes stubborn

So in short, we'll all continue to be driven insane for the next few days.

[Alyono]

The 0z models should remind some to stop thinking a single model run is a trend. Perhaps the 12z runs yesterday were the outlier. The trend wad toward weaker then all of a sudden they show the opposite only yo quickly trend back?

[LarryWx]

The 00z Canadian still develops this.

The Super Crazy Uncle develops this but then it gets absorbed by a restrengthened Fiona. Then Fiona is later absorbed by 90L. I'm not making this up, folks.

[AJC3]

The 00z Canadian still develops this.

The Super Crazy Uncle develops this but then it gets absorbed by a restrengthened Fiona. Then Fiona is later absorbed by 90L. I'm not making this up, folks.

The technical term for this is "FujiWHAAA?"

[hurrtracker79]

HWRF with Bahamian development...

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF running, a bit slower through 48 hours compared to the 12z:

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro is weaker so far @ 120 hrs.

[Hammy]

144H is farther east and appears a bit better defined than earlier's run.

[Siker]

168 about 2mb stronger. Really very similar to the last run, looking like Gulf again.

[chaser1]

168 hr. has 99L just north of the Bahamas. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_8.png

[chaser1]

AND.... it looks to me that a fast charging (?) Gaston to the East, is bending a tad less poleward and influencing Fiona and 99L to likely bend back westward too.

[hurrtracker79]

Note Gaston is further west versus 12Z run...

[Hammy]

Note Gaston is further west versus 12Z run...

Pressure 2mb lower as well.

[SeGaBob]

Looks Carolina bound.

[USTropics]

The 00z operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF actually have the main vortex of 99L in a similar position at 168 hours. Strength and the position of Fiona are obviously different:

ECMWF


GFS

[chaser1]

So at 192 hour the EURO thinks that Gaston will have slightly degraded the High centered over Georgia enough to cause 99L ('Hermine") to push northward? I'm not sure I'm buying that. Curious if the ridge builds in fairly quickly resulting in a stall or Hermine to do a cyclonic loop?

[chaser1]

That 500mb ridge over the SE CONUS has been fairly persistant. Minus any digging trough, I"m not sure about a solution that pulls 99L out to see. Perhaps bending back toward the Georgia/S. Carolina coast perhaps but the system seems to far west under that steering to pull out

[USTropics]

heading northwest at 216 hours: