ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

MUCH more shear than was expected. Almost seems to be playing out like Tomas did 6 years ago where the models did not have shear, yet the system became an exposed low in the Caribbean.

The shear will need to decrease this afternoon, or else I would not be surprised to see some short term weakening

[GCANE]

Higher rain rate at DMAX

[txwatcher91]

I expect Matthew will become a hurricane by 11 or 2pm today. Steady strengthening seems to be the trend for now and it's impressive they found 80kts FL in the NW quad where there was no convection. It shows that the LLC has strengthened significantly and is lining up better with the MLC. As the shear subsides later today this should really begin to wrap up. The GFS has done quite well with this imo.

[HurrMark]

It's tracking north of where it looked like it might yesterday, closer to the GFS forecast.This lessens the chance of a prolonged stall near the coast of Venezuala (and possibly Gulf threat). It also lessens the threat to Florida. Could be an East Coast threat (Carolinas-northward), though.

I wouldn't say more north (just 0.2 degrees off the forecast at 11 AM yesterday). But more east (almost a full degree).

[Emmett_Brown]

At the risk of stating the obvious; The path of the storm is straight forward per the models. Generally W track, followed by a sharp N turn. The idea is basically the same across the board, with variances in timing of the turn. Models seem to agree on the overall upper air pattern with minor differences. The big difference continues to be timing. One big IF in my mind, is how fast will it move W over the next 3 days before turning N, which has the biggest implications for Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and eventually E US coast.

[JaxGator]

The anti-cyclone that was overhead is now displaced to the south, inducing shear(good news for now). Matthew has still strengthend regardless of that. Wonder if it can form a new one later today.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone waaaay south, going to take time to get this all lined up.

[wxman57]

It's tracking north of where it looked like it might yesterday, closer to the GFS forecast.This lessens the chance of a prolonged stall near the coast of Venezuala (and possibly Gulf threat). It also lessens the threat to Florida. Could be an East Coast threat (Carolinas-northward), though.

I wouldn't say more north (just 0.2 degrees off the forecast at 11 AM yesterday). But more east (almost a full degree).

Wasn't talking about the NHC's forecast, I was thinking of the model projections, like the EC/UKMET which took the center across the ABC Islands into Venezuela.

[tolakram]

Hmmm * 2



source: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Alyono]

looks like the prevailing conditions of 2016 have got this storm as well. May be another one that needs to escape the MDR before it is able to develop significantly

I am very surprised at the shear evolution of today. Based upon the forecasts of the dynamical models, some of which show slight weakening between 24 and 48 hours, shear may increase further before it decreases

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/781475210650275840

[GCANE]

250mb Winds

[HurrMark]

It's tracking north of where it looked like it might yesterday, closer to the GFS forecast.This lessens the chance of a prolonged stall near the coast of Venezuala (and possibly Gulf threat). It also lessens the threat to Florida. Could be an East Coast threat (Carolinas-northward), though.

I wouldn't say more north (just 0.2 degrees off the forecast at 11 AM yesterday). But more east (almost a full degree).

Wasn't talking about the NHC's forecast, I was thinking of the model projections, like the EC/UKMET which took the center across the ABC Islands into Venezuela.

Gotcha.

I am starting to feel somewhat more comfortable (although certainly not 100% there) that the U.S. will yet again avoid a big hit. Yesterday, I thought 73-75 would be enough for it to strike New England, but trends have less of a negative tilt of the trough that would drive it north. I think that it would have to get to 76W (or right over Jamaica) to get to it far enough west...if so, I think the Outer Banks would be impacted. A bigger east coast storm would take place if it gets to 77 or so.

[bg1]

MUCH more shear than was expected.

Pretty much the story of the Atlantic since 2013. Hopefully it ends up weaker and shooting the gap between Cuba and the DR/Haiti.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/781478463270166529

[GCANE]

Buoy 42059
15.252 N 67.510 W

[otowntiger]

MUCH more shear than was expected. Almost seems to be playing out like Tomas did 6 years ago where the models did not have shear, yet the system became an exposed low in the Caribbean.

The shear will need to decrease this afternoon, or else I would not be surprised to see some short term weakening

Surprise! Surprise! [not ]

[Ntxw]

He's definitely experiencing some shear this morning with the exposed center. Though we may have gotten some hints last night when the center was already displaced.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Slightly off topic. The Washington Post printed a story yesterday that compared Matthew to Hazel because of it's forecast path. This has done nothing but to heighten fear and anxiety here along the SE NC coast, where Hazel literally left only one house standing. I know that they will say that they run these stories to inform the public, but it just seems like fear-mongering to me.

[gatorcane]

Yep similar to Hermine, anticyclone displaced to the south. I wonder if a sheared system that was largely unexpected by the models mean some shifts west in the track like we saw with Hermine?