ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Latest shear analysis clearly shows that huge drop off in shear over the Gulf Stream just off the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast. Once 91L gets into that region by tomorrow evening, it should really start to organize. The only potential impedient with this system is the large amount of dry air over the Southeast CONUS, which possibly could get entrained into potential Bonnie this weekend.

[Alyono]

the drop off in shear is this getting underneath the upper low

Of course, that is what happened with Alex

[tarheelprogrammer]

Simulated satellite from HWRF

[RL3AO]

^^^

Simulated IR satellite not radar

[RL3AO]

the drop off in shear is this getting underneath the upper low

Of course, that is what happened with Alex

Conditions look pretty solid (for late May at least) over the next 72 hours. The lack of shear should limit the impact of the drier continental air. SSTs get a touch low but maybe being under the upper low will help offset that.

[tarheelprogrammer]

^^^

Simulated IR satellite not radar

Sorry lol cannot believe I did that but corrected.

[RL3AO]

^^^

Simulated IR satellite not radar

Sorry lol cannot believe I did that but corrected.

No worries!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

With all due respect; I think people can safely presume the Jacksonville would mean Florida not North Carolina.
The most populated city in Florida with over 1 million people versus the 14th most populated city in North Carolina with about 70,000 people or so

With all do respect; I don't think population size has a diddly squat of bearing on which Jacksonville people are talking about. Especially when you are discussing a tropical system and direction it will travel and potentially landfall.

[Nimbus]

Is that an upper level low centered further SW over the Bahamas?
There is a circulation there that can be seen in the WV imagery.
Might keep this little system under shear if it is an ULL.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is that an upper level low centered further SW over the Bahamas?
There is a circulation there that can be seen in the WV imagery.
Might keep this little system under shear if it is an ULL.

I seen that earlier as well. Could be one but do models show it?

[TheStormExpert]

Simulated satellite from HWRF

Eye-like feature, hmmm...

[Steve]

With all due respect; I think people can safely presume the Jacksonville would mean Florida not North Carolina.
The most populated city in Florida with over 1 million people versus the 14th most populated city in North Carolina with about 70,000 people or so

With all do respect; I don't think population size has a diddly squat of bearing on which Jacksonville people are talking about. Especially when you are discussing a tropical system and direction it will travel and potentially landfall.

No offense as I understand your point and actually know where both Jacksonville, NC and Wilmington, NC are. But if someone is referencing Tampa and Ft. Lauderdale and wants to know "How the NE portion of the state is going to handle tropical situations, it's pretty clear. Having said that, you guys look to have some action in a few days. I'm interested to see if the NAM and/or GFS start upping the rainfall totals south of the OBX in the next couple of runs. NAM 18Z precip total is running now. It was giving 1.5/1.75 through 4 days as of the 12z run, and the GFS sort of puts more moisture north and south of the Southern Coast of NC.

[Brent]

Simulated satellite from HWRF

That is all

[SeGaBob]

It seems we're in the clear now. (mostly) Any chance we get some outer bands at least?


NOT a forecast just my thoughts.

[OuterBanker]

Come to the Outer Banks where the weather will be fine. Myrtle Beach not so much. Doesn't matter to me though. I"ll be vacationing in the mountains of Pa. The rest of the east coast will be here (one of the reasons I'm leaving).

[psyclone]

So the HWRF has a Hugo-like depiction over SC. Meanwhile the sea isn't fit to fall in (temp wise) either side of the Gulf stream. looks like low 70's. Count me as a skeptic (as usual) on the HWRF.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Simulated satellite from HWRF

That is all

lol

[tarheelprogrammer]

So the HWRF has a Hugo-like depiction over SC. Meanwhile the sea isn't fit to fall in (temp wise) either side of the Gulf stream. looks like low 70's. Count me as a skeptic (as usual) on the HWRF.

lol no doubt even I am as well just thought I would post it to cheer everyone up

[tolakram]

Let's stick to 91L please, thanks.

[Alyono]

the drop off in shear is this getting underneath the upper low

Of course, that is what happened with Alex

Conditions look pretty solid (for late May at least) over the next 72 hours. The lack of shear should limit the impact of the drier continental air. SSTs get a touch low but maybe being under the upper low will help offset that.

exactly right. SSTs in the 60s can be plenty warm for development under an upper low due to the cold tropopause heights. Now, I do not expect the tropopause to be THAT cold given this is MAY in the SW Atlantic. However, there could be a period of quick intensification over the Gulfstream