ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Maybe Gator, but quite a bit of model support... HWRF says cane by the time it reaches islands and I thought HWRF was very good at predicting TC genesis?? I know, hard not to consider Euro...

[Siker]

Maybe Gator, but quite a bit of model support... HWRF says cane by the time it reaches islands and I thought HWRF was very good at predicting TC genesis?? I know, hard not to consider Euro...

The HWRF is pretty bad when it comes to genesis. Its forecasting strength is track and intensity of developed tropical cyclones.

[Blown Away]

Maybe Gator, but quite a bit of model support... HWRF says cane by the time it reaches islands and I thought HWRF was very good at predicting TC genesis?? I know, hard not to consider Euro...

The HWRF is pretty bad when it comes to genesis. Its forecasting strength is track and intensity of developed tropical cyclones.

Does invest status normally classify as genesis?

[Siker]

Maybe Gator, but quite a bit of model support... HWRF says cane by the time it reaches islands and I thought HWRF was very good at predicting TC genesis?? I know, hard not to consider Euro...

The HWRF is pretty bad when it comes to genesis. Its forecasting strength is track and intensity of developed tropical cyclones.

Does invest status normally classify as genesis?

No, genesis only refers to having a numbered / named storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

Lacking convection around the center. Sometimes these kind of large systems where you don't see much around the center of the circulation can't get their act together so maybe the ECMWF is thinking the same? Saved loop:

https://s3.postimg.org/v9uqi8yr7/vis_lalo_animated.gif

The GFS doesn't really do much with this for the next 3-4 days either though. Wxman57 commented earlier and said he thinks that 99L has a fair chance of firing up as it approaches the Caribbean. I usually become vigilant once he posts and is in favor of development.

I agree. I use to give wxman a hard time because he wouldn't give the storms a chance and would call for the storm not to develop, but then I realized that his forecasts did end up being correct most of the time, so now I no longer bust his chops ...... The man knows the tropics that's for sure! So now when he speaks I listen..............

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This
disturbance is producing a large area of cloudiness but only a few
showers and thunderstorms, and any development of this system during
the next couple of days should be slow to occur due to its proximity
to dry air. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more
conducive for development after that time, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and into
the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[wxman57]

One thing to watch for over the next 2-3 days is the EC coming aboard as far as development. A good number of the EC ensembles track something into the Caribbean, but about half the members don't develop it, either. Canadian & its ensembles look way too far right. Maybe if it developed quickly...

I see the 12Z GFS had a 957mb Cat 3 heading for the Fl Panhandle Aug. 31 and the 18Z has a 921mb Cat 4 just east of FL heading for Jacksonville to Charleston area. Probably the safest place to be is at the 10-day track point. Well, it would be safer to be behind it...

I've narrowed down my projected landfall point (final) a bit. Now I say from Lake Charles to Bermuda.

[Caneman12]

One thing to watch for over the next 2-3 days is the EC coming aboard as far as development. A good number of the EC ensembles track something into the Caribbean, but about half the members don't develop it, either. Canadian & its ensembles look way too far right. Maybe if it developed quickly...

I see the 12Z GFS had a 957mb Cat 3 heading for the Fl Panhandle Aug. 31 and the 18Z has a 921mb Cat 4 just east of FL heading for Jacksonville to Charleston area. Probably the safest place to be is at the 10-day track point. Well, it would be safer to be behind it...

I've narrowed down my projected landfall point (final) a bit. Now I say from Lake Charles to Bermuda.

The houston area is not out of the mix ridge should block this from the EC

[GeneratorPower]

Being about equidistant from both Lake Charles and Bermuda, I guess I should start paying attention. I'm curious what the ridge/trough pattern will be over the Southeast US next week. The weather here in Florida has been different than usual.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

As of 00:00 UTC Aug 20, 2016:


Location: 10.5°N 33.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[OuterBanker]

Typical dry looking and obviously lack of convection making it look sickly. But, it's radius of circulation is stated to be 180 nm. That's quite impressive. Not really looking for much anyway till 50w. The monster exiting africa is really impressive. But, at around 15n it pretty much assures it to be a fish.

[Bocadude85]

One thing to watch for over the next 2-3 days is the EC coming aboard as far as development. A good number of the EC ensembles track something into the Caribbean, but about half the members don't develop it, either. Canadian & its ensembles look way too far right. Maybe if it developed quickly...

I see the 12Z GFS had a 957mb Cat 3 heading for the Fl Panhandle Aug. 31 and the 18Z has a 921mb Cat 4 just east of FL heading for Jacksonville to Charleston area. Probably the safest place to be is at the 10-day track point. Well, it would be safer to be behind it...

I've narrowed down my projected landfall point (final) a bit. Now I say from Lake Charles to Bermuda.

What are your thoughts on development? 50/50 chance like the NHC is stating or?

[bamajammer4eva]

Doesn't mean much but if this form in the next couple of days it will be ahead of the 2004 season when Gaston formed on August 27th and was a fairly busy year since we got to the Otto storm.

[floridasun78]

it look bad now let see how look by Monday

[euro6208]

I was hoping this will turn out strong like what the GFS is saying...Possible Cat 5...for the starve hungry depressing atlantic followers. Looks like it has trended weaker on the 00z run...What a contrast from the previous runs...

EURO wins again...

The pain...

[Hurricaneman]

There is some popcorn convection around the center but it looks like SAL and shear have gotten to it

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[Hammy]

Basing this on the model trends and current conditions: I'm still thinking zero development until the Euro comes on board (which it obviously won't if it doesn't form) and in the small event it does (I'll give it 5-10% personally) it'll probably remain weak and take a track similar to Earl's, which is roughly where the Euro has shown the vorticity going.

[Bocadude85]

Basing this on the model trends and current conditions: I'm still thinking zero development until the Euro comes on board (which it obviously won't if it doesn't form) and in the small event it does (I'll give it 5-10% personally) it'll probably remain weak and take a track similar to Earl's, which is roughly where the Euro has shown the vorticity going.

The Euro has the vorticity moving over Hispaniola

[SeGaBob]

I think some are writing it off way to early... I get tired of hearing king euro over and over too. Just wait and see before jumping to conclusions.

[Siker]

Basing this on the model trends and current conditions: I'm still thinking zero development until the Euro comes on board (which it obviously won't if it doesn't form) and in the small event it does (I'll give it 5-10% personally) it'll probably remain weak and take a track similar to Earl's, which is roughly where the Euro has shown the vorticity going.

Woah, those are low odds. While scanning Earl's thread to check when the Euro picked up on development, I noticed you gave it "<10% chance of developing" at one point. Food for thought .